The Why
The news in and of itself should not be surprising, and for multiple reasons. First, the Pakistani military/intelligence establishment has always distrusted and disliked the PPP. Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, Benazir’s father, recognized this and established the Federal Security Force in an attempt to offset the influence of the ISI. The FSF was promptly disbanded after Gen. Zia-ul-Huq’s 1979 coup. On the other hand, Nawaz Sharif is a child of the establishment, promoted and sponsored by Gen. Zia himself.

People may question – what about General Ashfaq Kayani and his stance on political non-interference? The answer and second reason likely lies in the decreasing ability of the military establishment’s inability to control low-to-mid-level personnel as has been demonstrated by the numerous security lapses and leaks that have led to numerous terrorist strikes against sensitive targets.

This brings us to the third reason. Many in Pakistan’s military and intelligence apparatus remain sympathetic to their former proxies as is Nawaz Sharif. Sharif is well liked by Pakistan’s right and religious fundamentalists. His return would likely mark the end to the Pakistan Army’s push in the country’s northwest.

The How
If Pakistani intelligence is truly attempting to engineer Nawaz Sharif’s return, the question is, how do they intend on doing so? The answer may lie in what Insider Brief sources recently intimated to us. In the on going discussions over Zardari, it was mentioned that the last phone call to Benazir Bhutto minutes before her assassination was made by Zardari himself. He reportedly asked Bhutto why she was sitting in the car and not outside as the “people wanted to see her.”

The story could conceivably be true – there’s no doubt that Pakistani intelligence tapped Bhutto and Zardari’s phones – and Zardari did indeed have a lot to gain from her death. But the far likelier explanation could be that Pakistani intelligence is working to build up a story to incriminate or at the very least, implicate Zardari in the court of public opinion.

The other explanation is that these meetings are just indicative of pressure tactics being used by President Musharraf and the “establishment” as they tussle with Zardari and his civilian government over major issues such as the restoration of deposed judges, tackling terrorism and handling Pakistan’s economic issues.

The Lesson
The major take away is that the government must act with surety and decisiveness. A constellation of forces is aligning against the sitting government as it waits idly by, paralyzed by indecision and infighting. If it doesn’t act, the PPP will have passed up a chance to consolidate fresh democratic foundations for Pakistan and the opportunity to tackle issues from a liberal platform.

These closed-door meetings were just warning shots that time is running out.

Bilawal Zadari is a 19-year old with no political experience and questionable Urdu skills, having lived most of his life abroad. Sources have indicated that Benazir had provided a list of advisors who would serve as a sort of council of regents for Bilawal with his father as principal advisor until he was politically able and legally eligible to run for office.

The question begs to be asked: will the PPP survive?

The Short Answer
Yes.

The Long Answer
In the short term, the PPP will ride the crest of emotional outpouring and sympathy arising from the death of its leader and likely emerge as the winner of the next parliamentary elections. But what about the long term? Bilawal Zardari will not be taking on full party leadership for another 5 years. Can the party hold together and maintain its popularity until then? If history is any indicator, the answer again is yes.

Pakistani Precedent. Zulfikar Ali Bhutto was probably Pakistan’s most popular politician after Mohammad Ali Jinnah, Pakistan’s founder. His name and that of his family continues to elicit a cult-like following in all four of Pakistan’s provinces. Aside from being an impressive orator (just search YouTube), intelligent, and charismatic, Bhutto was the first politician that spoke for Pakistan’s poor and brought forth a populist message. Despite his many flaws, even those in middle and upper class were enthralled with the man.

Consider this: Zia-ul-Huq rose to power in 1978. He hanged Zulfikar Bhutto in 1979. After Zia’s mysterious death in 1989, a decade later, Benazir Bhutto swept elections and became prime minister. Two truncated premierships later and after nearly 8 years in exile, Bhutto returned to Pakistan as one of the most of the popular politicians in Pakistan’s political landscape.

The power of the Bhutto name is demonstratedly immense.

Subcontinental Precedents. In Pakistan, it’s the Bhutto’s. In India, it’s the Gandhi’s. The Gandhi dynasty of India presents a similar story of the power of a name tied with the longevity of a party. Indhira Gandhi, headstrong Indian prime minister and chairwoman of the National Congress party was assassinated in 1984. Her politically inexperienced son, Rajiv Gandhi, then an airline pilot, took on party leadership and became prime minister that same year. He was assassinated in 1991, following his parliamentary defeat in 1989. In 1998, 7 years after Rajiv’s death, his Italian-born wife, Sonia, became chairwoman of the Congress Party which finds itself in power today.

Sindhi’s, Seraiki’s, and the Poverty Stricken. Beyond emotionalism and the sentiment attached to the Bhutto name, there is the simple fact that the PPP has a solid, core constituency upon which to rely. Without the PPP, Pakistan’s Sindhi’s, Seraiki’s, and many of the nation’s poor, wouldn’t have a party to represent them. Punjabi’s after all, have the Pakistan Muslim League in all its lettered variants. The Sindh has the PPP. (Province-centric parties are ultimately dangerous though and only heighten the risk of ethnic/sectarian strife in Pakistan.)

The PPP survived the loss of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. So too will it surive the loss of Benazir.

The elections in Pakistan are just about two weeks away. Musharraf is fulfilling his promise by my reckoning; or was it the Americans, the Brits, or the lawyers and politicians in Pakistan who deserve the credit? The burning question of the day is will the elections in Pakistan be fair and free? The media in the US and the opposition parties in Pakistan are convinced that they will be opaque and rigged. Scores of international observers are on their way to Pakistan to monitor the elections though they too are convinced they will be rigged, such is the power of suggestion. Now where does this leave Musharraf, between a hard place and a rock? I think so.

Almost every body who is anybody in the US, starting with powerful voices on the Hill, the media, every South Asian think tanker worth his salt and let us not forget the Pakistani American scholar struggling to find a position in the land of opportunity have lambasted Musharraf for everything wrong in Pakistan. Let Ambassador Durrani and his team rave and rant that Musharraf is the best thing that has happened to Pakistan in recent decades, alas the opinion die is cast; Musharraf is a dictator and the elections will be rigged.

The Pakistani media, which expanded exponentially under Musharraf, the whiskey swirling liberals in Islamabad and Lahore and the major political parties with impeccable democratic credentials from the right, the left and the center all warn of the upcoming rigged elections, as they brainwash the representatives of foreign Government and the foreign media of the dictatorial credentials of Musharraf. The Joan of Arc launched by the US is a hot favorite for her liberal credentials. Of course we will turn a blind eye to her dictatorial credentials within her party and her Mr. 10 % who is upping the rate to 15 % because of global warming and the rising price of oil. Another favorite is the Saudi launched democrat who during one of his tenures launched a frontal attack on the Supreme Court and has deep connections with the religious right. Another positive about the Saudi launch is his ambition to become the Amir ul Mohmaneen, the rightful successor of the Zia ul Haq legacy, so help us God.The patient commoner of Pakistan with the wisdom of poverty, has discovered the right formula for obtaining justice in Pakistan and I quote him, “if you have a case in court, you have multiple choices — hire a lawyer, or hire a judge, if the going gets tough better still hire a judge through a lawyer, and in case you have no money lump it.”  It is this wisdom that kept the common citizen from joining the protesting penguins (black suited lawyers); the alternatives to Musharraf did not appeal to them. Nor do they appeal to me.

I honestly believe Musharraf is indeed the best thing that has happened to Pakistan in a long time. He has turned around the sick economy of Pakistan, has improved the lot of the common man, enhanced the status of women, built the civil society, is improving education and is a true liberal. Not a single scandal of corruption against his name. Let me not push my luck but I feel he has done more for democracy than any of his recent predecessors. Yes he has made mistakes, is fighting an unpopular war and his popularity has plummeted. Incidentally his popularity is no worse than that of the Congress in the US. Musharraf at the helm for another five years will be in the best interest of Pakistan and I believe the US too, mark my words.

The News: Reuters
With Gen. Ashfaq Kayani’s ascendancy to the role of Chief of Army Staff (COAS), Reuters published an article on Nov. 28th titled, “Five Facts on Pakistan’s New Army Chief – Kayani,” in which they cited the Insider Brief.

On the Web: Watandost
In his latest blog post entitled, “Three New Excellent Blogs on Pakistan,” Hassan Abbas of Watandost recommended three Pakistan-focused blogs to his readers, one of which happened to be the Insider Brief. A published author and former Pakistani government official, Abbas is also a Research Fellow at the Belfer Center’s Project on Managing the Atom and International Security Program. His recognition, like that of the PCR Project, means a lot to us.

On the Radio: The John Batchelor Show
Last night, I appeared on the John Batchelor Show to discuss the rise of Gen. Ashfaq Kayani and President Musharraf’s future. You can listen to my conversation with John by using the player below.

Download audio file (wabc-interview-20071202-pakintel.mp3)
(Download file)

John’s show airs on Sundays, WABC 770AM in New York from 7-10pm EST (webcast), and KFI 640AM in Los Angeles from 7-10pm PST (webcast).

“Finish the job,” you say. Hunt out Osama? Wrap up global terrorism?

Not long ago, you taught a set of values to these people, a little different than we require now. You taught them to live by those values, to hold them dearer than life, and to readily die for them. That was jihad. Today, the jihadists are in the hundreds of thousands, and the Pashtun belt of Afghanistan and Pakistan’s tribal regions are overflowing with religious fervor. Then, this had been nurtured. With US benevolence, General Zia-ul-Huq fostered those same values in the Army and the youth of the nation, which is still struggling to grow up. Implications are untold.

Today, there are over 40,000 NATO soldiers in Afghanistan and none of them are involved in what you could qualify as either “hunting Osama” or “wrapping up global terrorism.” All the “terrorism” that is spreading in the region is because of the presence of these troops. Any country, what to talk of one with Afghan history and mores, would fight a foreign occupation army. And the Afghan Pashtun has been trained, at great cost, to struggle. All the operations of these NATO troops as well as the Afghan security forces are directed towards these “terrorists,” or should I say “freedom fighters.” But I don’t, because of the ugly things they end up doing. Will not conflict bring forth the best and the worst in us? Nevertheless, one is the cause for the existence of the other. They will coexist indefinitely – at a phenomenal cost for all those involved, and achieve neither of these objectives. But if the objective is to find cause to stay here, then let chaos prevail; and it will creep up to your door.

The spillover of extremism in Pakistan coupled with the current political chaos has unforeseen consequences.

What is the job? What is the best way to go about it? Is there a timeframe? Are there cost parameters, extents to collateral damage, ethical inhibitions or even possible end-scenarios?

Is there reason to consider it or should it be left undefined?

Lt. Gen. Shahid Aziz is a retired general of the Pakistan Army and former Chairman of the National Accountability Bureau.

A retired general of the Pakistan Army, he has had an extraordinary military career that gave him a front row seat to some of Pakistan’s most pivotal events over the past decade, culminating in his role as Lahore Corps Commander. Out of uniform, he continued to serve the public as the Chairman of the National Accountability Bureau (NAB), a post he left earlier this year. (Read his detailed biography here.)

In a recent exchange with Gen. Aziz, I mentioned American willingness to throw financial and military resources at the US presence in Afghanistan to “finish the job.” Later tonight, he will be posting his response to that comment, the first in a continuous series of posts from notable Pakistanis on the Insider Brief.