The News: Reuters
With Gen. Ashfaq Kayani’s ascendancy to the role of Chief of Army Staff (COAS), Reuters published an article on Nov. 28th titled, “Five Facts on Pakistan’s New Army Chief – Kayani,” in which they cited the Insider Brief.

On the Web: Watandost
In his latest blog post entitled, “Three New Excellent Blogs on Pakistan,” Hassan Abbas of Watandost recommended three Pakistan-focused blogs to his readers, one of which happened to be the Insider Brief. A published author and former Pakistani government official, Abbas is also a Research Fellow at the Belfer Center’s Project on Managing the Atom and International Security Program. His recognition, like that of the PCR Project, means a lot to us.

On the Radio: The John Batchelor Show
Last night, I appeared on the John Batchelor Show to discuss the rise of Gen. Ashfaq Kayani and President Musharraf’s future. You can listen to my conversation with John by using the player below.

Download audio file (wabc-interview-20071202-pakintel.mp3)
(Download file)

John’s show airs on Sundays, WABC 770AM in New York from 7-10pm EST (webcast), and KFI 640AM in Los Angeles from 7-10pm PST (webcast).

In short: there’s a heck of a lot going on.

When the situation is this fluid, it creates an environment rife with speculation. At the center of all the speculation has been President Musharraf’s relationship with General Kayani. We’d like to clear the air.

Army Reshuffle in March 2008
The Asia Times Online reported that Gen. Ashfaq Kayani was engaging in a major reshuffle of the Pakistan Army, consolidating his hold on power and removing Musharraf loyalists. Many in the news media picked up on this article, reported it and interpreted it as movement by Kayani against Musharraf. However almost immediately after the news came out, DG ISPR Maj. Gen. Waheed Arshad categorically stated that it was false.

One of the first things worth noting is that the Asia Times Online has never been a reliable source of news. Always engaging in some form of sensationalism, its Pakistan correspondent, Syed Saleem Shahzad, has consistently been wrong over the course of the past few years. It is absolutely confounding that respectable news outlets and private intelligence organizations (e.g. Stratfor — whom I have deep respect for, having worked with them in one way or another since 1999) continue to be duped by the Asia Times Online.

That being said, sources report that there is a scheduled reshuffle expected in March 2008 within the army. This reshuffle will likely take into account Pakistan’s post-election scenario, the status of the Musharraf presidency and the progress of military operations in the country’s northwest. In terms of what to expect for a reshuffle of the army’s mid-level officer corps, sources are reporting that Gen. Kayani is looking to replace the ISI provincial heads (Brigadiers) for Sindh and NWFP. Apparently they have been causing some big headaches and potentially may have Islamist leanings.

The Loyalty Question: the Army and Kayani
As speculation has implied, the big question is whether Kayani will stay loyal to Musharraf. We believe he will — for now. Through discussions with our sources, there appears to be a consensus that Gen. Kayani does not have political aspirations of his own. The consensus among our sources also reveals that for the time being, the current grouping of corps commanders remains loyal to Musharraf as well.

Kayani’s decision thus far to not appoint a Vice or Deputy Chief of Army Staff validates the notion that he intends on remaining apolitical. As we’ve stated in the past, a VCOAS/DCOAS is really only appointed when the Chief of Army Staff (COAS) is busy muddling in the country’s governance to the extent that he cannot effectively oversee the army’s day-to-day affairs. (Editor’s Note: VCOAS and DCOAS are the same position, the difference is in the number of stars. A VCOAS is a full 4-star general, while a DCOAS is a full 3-star general.)

So what could sway Kayani’s support away from Musharraf? The two most likely scenarios in which Kayani would withdraw support for Musharraf would involve either:

1. The US government determining that Musharraf is a liability to the war on terror.
2. Kayani determining that Musharraf’s presence in the presidency is either hurting the army’s image or counterproductive towards his goal of transitioning the army out of national affairs.

And though many in Pakistan seek to have the army completely extricate itself from the affairs of governance, at present, it’s not an entirely realistic goal. We argued recently that Musharraf stepping down from the army does not mark a paradigm shift. The Pakistan Army is likely to have a role in governing Pakistan for the near-to-medium term, something that we believe is not sustainable for the army or the nation in the long run. A consensus on a vision for the country’s future must be developed among all of Pakistan’s major power brokers so that the armed forces may finally take on their rightful role as the defenders of Pakistan, not its governors.

Outlook on Musharraf’s Future
We believe that as long as President Musharraf retains the support of Gen. Kayani, he will continue to hold the upper hand on the political scene as the country transitions back to democracy. After all, President Musharraf has no popular support base on which to rely. His constituency was and is the army. Without its support, he’s dead in the water. Working in coordination, Musharraf and Kayani have the potential to be a major force in this transition, setting the agenda for the country’s future. Five years is a long time however, and a lot can happen before then. We have a feeling that regardless of how much support President Musharraf receives from the army, he won’t be completing his second term as president.

As part of our continued commitment to bringing our readers exclusive content and multimedia, we have video footage of the retreat ceremony below.

According to sources, Kayani will not be appointing a deputy within the army (read: Vice Chief of Army Staff). The role of VCOAS is not a standard one. In the past, it has been created when the military has been actively engaged in governing the nation, when the COAS could not focus all his energies on the army.

For those of you who are hungry for more information about Kayani, check out our profile of him from September, which includes more exclusive photos of the reclusive general (we even reveal his golf handicap): Gen. Kayani Profile.

Today’s Itinerary:

• 10:00am PST – Changeover Ceremony
• 11:30am PST – Corps Commander Conference
• 6:00pm PST – Retreat Ceremony
• 7:00pm PST – Farewell Dinner for Gen. Pervez Musharraf

Transition Continues as Planned
Effectively having dealt with former Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry, Musharraf’s transition appears to be continuing as planned. The newly revamped Supreme Court has paved the way for Musharraf’s second term as president and now that Nawaz Sharif has returned to Pakistan, the stage is set for the January parliamentary elections. The only remaining unresolved issue is the present state of emergency that is in effect which will likely go soon. Many IB readers will recall that our sources had stated back on November 3rd that Musharraf would remove his uniform, elections would be held, and that the emergency would be short lived.

Taking stock of the present situation — isn’t this what everyone wanted? A civilian Musharraf as president with elections being held in which all major parties are participating? Not to sound like a military regime apologist, the question begs to be asked: was Iftikhar Chaudhry acting in the greater good of the country by sparking a confrontation with President Musharraf? In attempting to push Musharraf out of the public realm entirely, instead of seeking a phased transition, can it be argued that Chaudhry can be blamed for the current state of emergency and curbs on the media?

We’ll leave that for our readers to answer.

A Paradigm in Twilight?
When Musharraf retires from the army this Wednesday, many will begin to question if this is the beginning of the end for the military’s involvement in government. The answer: not by a long shot. We had stated in a prior post that the army is at the center of the Pakistani state and that it will be involved in the country’s governance for decades to come if not in perpetuity. Whether this is right or wrong is not the question — it’s a ground reality.

Heard ad nauseam, the military is Pakistan’s single most organized, popular and powerful institution. It is the only grouping of Pakistan’s major stakeholders that can universally impose its will on the country and bring everyone else into line. As long as Pakistan’s ruling elites — the military, political parties, feudal lords, and business barons — remain at loggerheads with one another over the direction of the nation, the military will remain in the driver’s seat.

Negroponte’s Visit
Undersecretary of State John Negroponte’s visit to Pakistan is probably the week’s biggest event. Having arrived in Pakistan on Friday, Negroponte met with President Gen. Pervez Musharraf, his advisor Tariq Aziz and Vice Chief of Army Staff Gen. Ashfaq Kayani. Wratcheting up pressure on Musharraf, the Bush administration dispatched Negroponte to demand a specified date when Musharraf would end the state of emergency. Negroponte went home dateless on Sunday.

The visit itself is not significant, but the potential American response is. In the eyes of the White House, Musharraf may no longer be the reliable ally he once was. Yes, there have been disagreements between the Bush adminstration and Musharraf from time to time (e.g. the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline), but never on high-profile matters like this. Couple Musharraf’s recalcitrance with the fact that Washington probably doesn’t appreciate how his alleged power grab could compromise the war on terror, and you may have a recipe for an American backed effort to remove Musharraf from power.

To those of you gasping at the thought, just take into account the fact that Negroponte met with Gen. Kayani twice during his visit, which according to many indicates American support for the general. If Musharraf goes, willingly or unwillingly, there’s atleast a fall back option. Kayani is a known Musharraf loyalist and unlikely to engage in any intrigues, but power does have its allure.

Interim Government Announced
The other big news of the week centered around Pres. Musharraf’s appointment of Senate Chairman Mohammadmian Soomro as caretaker prime minister along with the rest of his cabinet that will form the interim government.

Sources had reported over a week ago that Soomro would be appointed interim prime minister but I questioned the veracity of the news and did not report it. After all, Soomro is a known Musharraf loyalist and PML(Q) party member; a caretaker prime minister would need to be neutral for national elections to have any semblance of legitimacy. Surprisingly, not only was Soomro included in the interim government, but so were a whole host of vocal Musharraf supporters.

Musharraf, it appears, was not about to take any chances by having an interim government create a sticky situation for him or voice any opposition to him.

Some eyebrows were raised with the inclusion of Salman Taseer in the interim government given his prior links to the PPP. Taseer is the business magnate behind WorldCall and the Daily Times among other major business ventures. Sources insist that there is no signfiicance, however, Taseer’s involvement and Bhutto’s relative freedom vis-a-vis other opposition leaders may imply that some sort of accomodation is still possible between Musharraf and the PPP.

Skyguard Delivery Halted
On Wednesday, Switzerland indefinitely halted the delivery of Skyguard air defense batteries to Pakistan due to the on-going situation in Pakistan. Intended for the Pakistan Army, the 21 vehicle mounted anti-aircraft systems were excess inventory from the Swiss armed forces. In addition to the Skyguard units already owned and operated by the Pakistan Army, six batteries had already been delivered from the most recent purchase.

The prevention of delivery will not significantly damage Pakistan’s air defense capabilities, but it does raise fears that other left-leaning government may do the same for more vital defense equipment. One prime example is Sweden, with whom Pakistan recently signed a multi-billion dollar deal to purchase seven Erieye Airborne Warning and Control Systems (AWACS).

The Swiss will ultimately relent, however, the damage has been done to their future prospects of arms sales to Pakistan. Pakistan will likely turn to more reliable partners, such as France and China, for purchases and co-development of more advanced air defense systems. The same happened after the United States’ continual embargo of F-16′s that had been paid for by Pakistan; Pakistan, in conjunction with China, ended up developing and producing the JF-17 Thunder, a plane arguably better than earlier block F-16′s.

US-Pakistani Relations
Many out there are declaring their own emergency for the state of US-Pakistani relations. The fact of the matter is that despite the increasing criticism emerging from the White House, relations between the two countries remain strong. President Bush may have touted his recent phone call to Musharraf demanding that he step down as army chief and hold elections, but the reality is that Musharraf had already committed to both, as my sources had stated. That’s why Bush was able to make the demands he did, he knew that Musharraf already intended on doing what he’s asking.

The bigger news may be that despite repeated denials, the Bush administration knew that emergency rule was coming in Pakistan. High-level sources have reported that the Bush administration, specifically Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte, had been informed days in advance of the decision.

Though Musharraf’s relationship with the Bush administration is strong, sources are also indicating that the establishment fears fall-out from the US Congress, the American media and think tanks. This was already evidenced by Musharraf’s recent calls to members of Congress, attempting to allay concerns and prevent a halt in the flow of financial aid to Pakistan.

Emergency Rule’s Financial Impact
When markets opened the Monday after the declaration of emergency, the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) plummeted 5 percent, experiencing its worst single-day decline in the exchange’s history. Though the news of emergency rule and the resultant stock market plunge may be worrying for investors and Pakistanis alike, they should rest assured that the current volatility is only a short term phenomenon.

(courtesy of the Wall Street Journal Online)

The primary concern of both foreign and Pakistani investors is whether the fiscal and monetary policies of the current government will continue down the road. We witnessed this when the Supreme Court declared Musharraf’s presidential candidacy valid (the first time around) and as a result, the KSE skyrocketed the following day. After all, it’s been Musharraf’s policies over the course of the past 8 years that have generated Pakistan’s immense economic growth; last year alone Pakistan attracted nearly $8 billion in foreign investment, no small accomplishment.

What investors must further realize is that even if Musharraf is forced to step down, his economic policies won’t go with him.

The army is at the center of the Pakistani state and will be involved in the country’s governance for decades to come if not in perpetuity. Its role as the guarantor of the Pakistani state has now expanded to include the economy and for good reason. It became painfully aware to the Pakistani military that a strong economy was needed to fund its war machine, as sanctions and economic weakness set the country’s defense acquisition programs back years if not decades. But most importantly, the Pakistani military, and in particular the army, has massive business concerns across the country. To keep Army Inc. profitable, the health of the economy must remain strong.

That is why investors shouldn’t fret when it comes to Pakistan and current economic policies – they’re not going anywhere.

The Army’s Cohesion and Pakistan’s Wild West
Several times now, rumors have arisen suggesting Musharraf has been placed under house arrest. Likely spread by the opposition, the rumors fly in the face of what can be expected of the Pakistan Army.

With the exception of the Rawalpindi Conspiracy in 1951, there have never been any incidents of open insubordination within the Pakistan Army. If the situation becomes untenable for Musharraf and the army’s popularity diminishes as a result, the army as an institution will quietly ask Musharraf to step down. We’ve also stated in the past that the current Vice Chief of Army Staff (VCOAS) and successor to Musharraf, Gen. Ashfaq Kayani, is a thoroughly professional soldier who not only respects the chain of command but is also a Musharraf loyalist.

What does the army think about the emergency though? Sources have indicated to us that the army remains unified and the response to the emergency has been relatively positive. On the other hand, sources have also stated that there is resentment within the army regarding operations in Pakistan’s northwest, particularly Swat, with many in the army stating that they do not want to fight fellow Pakistanis. This may be why despite the declaration of emergency, we haven’t seen immediate action in Swat as the army internally debates a course of action. The situation is worsening though. Dawn has reported that a third major town in Swat recently fell to Islamist forces loyal to Maulana Fazlullah.

Humorous Anecdote: Many are aware that former ISI chief, Gen. Hameed Gul had been arrested when the emergency was first declared. Many of you however, may not know what he was up to when he was arrested. Much to my amusement, very close relatives of his informed me that the wily 71 year-old was on his way with flowers and cake for the now-deposed Supreme Court justices, who had just struck down the PCO. He is currently in jail, detained for 30-days.

President Musharraf is currently addressing the country on national television in English. Stating that the country is at a dangerous juncture. Speaking in English so the world can hear. More to come. (Updated via Blackberry, 3:52pm US EST/1:52am PST)

Dawn reports that Benazir Bhutto has returned to Karachi and was escorted home by police. The White House has termed the state of emergency as “disappointing.” (Updated via Blackberry, 2:58pm US EST/12:58am PST)

Confirmed: Musharraf is not under house arrest, is still definitely in the driver’s seat. Pakistan is being described as in a state of “emergency plus,” somewhere between martial law and a state of emergency. (Updated via Blackberry, 2:22pm US EST/12:22am PST)

[Editor's Note: I will be stepping away from my computer, will attempt to keep IB readers continually updated via my Blackberry. 12:35pm US EST/10:53pm PST]

Benazir Bhutto has reportedly stepped off the plane in Dubai and will not be returning to Pakistan so soon. Perhaps fearing arrest? Justice Abdul Hameed Dogar (pictured right) has now been sworn in as Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of Pakistan, under the PCO. (Updated 12:00pm US EST/10:00pm PST)

Benazir Bhutto is supposedly at Dubai Int’l Airport or already en route to Karachi. (Updated 11:53am US EST/8:53pm PST)

Thoughts. This is essentially martial law. The issue was ordered from the COAS to avoid the needed approval from parliament. There is also this rumor that Musharraf is under house arrest, and even if it’s not true, I don’t see Musharraf surviving this. I don’t forsee a large scale protest campaign against Musharraf until the confusion is settled and there is an accurate picture of the ground reality. Though speculation reached its peak yesterday over the declaration of a state of emergency, no one really expected Musharraf to follow through; that’s why I believe we’re going to see an opposition that is potentially in disarray. I also find it incredibly convenient that Benazir was out of the country while this all happened. It’s a little peculiar that she would leave the country so soon after staging such a large come back. (Updated 11:41am US EST/8:41pm PST)

UNCONFIRMED RUMOR: Some sources are now reporting the that Pres. Musharraf is under house arrest and that Vice Chief of Army Staff (VCOAS) General Ashfaq Kayani has taken control of the Army and thereby the country. This would explain why all announcements re: the state of emergency have simply stated that they were by order of the “Chief of Army Staff,” with Pres. Musharraf’s name ommitted. I repeat, this just a rumor. I have other sources who claim to have just spoken with Musharraf refuting the rumor. (Updated 11:15am US EST/8:15pm PST)

Justices from the Lahore High Court have been summoned to the Governor House to supposedly take oath under the PCO. Earlier, the Karachi High Court justices had been summoned to Sindh’s Governor House. (Updated 11:09am US EST/8:09pm PST)

The Supreme Court’s decision against the PCO orders the COAS, all Corps Commanders and civil/military officials from carrying out the PCO. It states that any future change in the composition of the Supreme Court bench will be illegal and that no judges may take oath under the PCO. (Updated 10:16am US EST/7:16pm PST)

A 7-member bench of the Supreme Court, headed by the Chief Justice, has declared the PCO void. This has set the stage for a full on confrontation between Musharraf and Iftikhar Chaudhry. According to legal experts, the government cannot pass a PCO during a state of emergency under Article 232 of the constitution. President of the Supreme Court Bar Association, Aitzaz Ahsan, has been arrested from his home. He was a lawyer for Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry. (Updated 9:53am US EST/6:53pm PST)

Multiple justices have now arrived at the Supreme Court; they include Justices Rana Bhagwandas, Javed Iqbal, Abdul Hameed Dogar, Faqir Khokar, Muhammad Abbasi, Shakirullah Jan, and Ghulam Rabbani. A heavy paramilitary presence including Pakistan Rangers is reported in Islamabad. Heavy security exists in front of facilities belonging to Radio Pakistan, PTV, and the Prime Minister. (Updated 9:36am US EST/6:36pm PST)

Cable transmissions of all news outlets, with the exception of the official Pakistan Television (PTV), have been shut down. Musharraf is expected to address the nation tonight. (Updated 9:36am US EST/6:36pm PST)

The Chief Justice of Pakistan is reportedly now in his chambers with two other senior judges — Justice Abdul Hameed Dogar and another unnamed judge. News outlets are speculating that Justice Dogar will be the new CJP. Mobile phones in Islamabad are being jammed. (Updated 9:18am US EST/6:18pm PST)

The Countdown Begins
Musharraf stepping down from his post as Chief of Army Staff (COAS) would mark an interesting turn of events, especially in light of the recent attempt on Benazir Bhutto’s life and strife in the country’s border regions. One would have reasoned that given the level of instability, Musharraf would have dragged his feet on shedding his uniform, but instead, we’re potentially witnessing the opposite. He may step down as COAS to facilitate a Supreme Court verdict in favor of his presidential candidacy; though it’s unlikely that the Supreme Court will rule against Musharraf, lest it’s seeking to trigger a governmental crisis.

Musharraf’s expedited schedule can also be interpreted as a vote of confidence for Gen. Ashfaq Kayani, Musharraf’s successor in the army. Musharraf would be signalling that he trusts Kayani enough to run the army without fear of being ousted or betrayed, though many in the opposition have long been anticipating the day that Musharraf doffs his uniform as it has been his only source of power. If and when he does remove his uniform, Musharraf will rely more than ever on the loyalists he has strategically placed throughout the military and the government.

Shaukat Aziz to Remain Premier
Sources are also indicating that the powers-that-be intend for Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz to remain prime minister after general elections. They describe Aziz as being a “non-controversial” public figure and cite his proven track record in managing the economy. They go on to categorically state that Benazir Bhutto will not be the next prime minister.

This news, coupled with our previous reporting that Musharraf will not be abandoning his current civilian allies (read: the Chaudhries), rules out a major power-sharing agreement between Bhutto and Musharraf. It is likely that government intends to continue to dangle the idea of a power-sharing accord in front of Bhutto as a means of keeping both her and the public occupied while it prepares for general elections.

Though there may not be a major power-sharing agreement between Musharraf and Bhutto, we do foresee them coming to some sort of political accommodation along with the rest of the players on Pakistan’s scattered political field.

The government should be wary though not to underestimate Bhutto’s popularity or political abilities – she may just end up surprising everyone.

Since Musharraf will not be shedding his Army uniform until after re-election, promotions will likely be announced for the roles of Vice Chief of Army Staff (VCOAS) and/or Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (CJCS). Though anything is still possible, we are of the view that Musharraf’s successor in the Army will be Gen. Kayani. (Read all about Kayani in my recent profile of him.)

Speculation in the media over Kayani’s future role is now hotter than ever, with pundits chiming in from all corners.  Sources have indicated that Taj will not officially be taking over the responsibilities of his new post until next week, and it is then that the decision will be made determining where Kayani will go. At this point in time, it is likely that no one but Pres. Gen. Musharraf knows the real answer, but we certainly have a good idea.

Individuals familiar with the matter stated that in his future role, Kayani would be given oversight of all major intelligence agencies (e.g. the ISI, MI, etc.). Unless Musharraf intends on strengthening the office of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (CJCS) and thereby alienate his support base in the army, we can infer that Gen. Kayani will most probably be given the coveted role of Vice Chief of Army Staff (VCOAS); which would immediately translate into Chief of Army Staff (COAS) upon Musharraf’s retirement from the army.

In the meanwhile, Lt. General Tariq Majeed is the growing favorite by many to be the next CJCS.

WHO IS ASHFAQ PARVEZ KAYANI?
The reclusive Gen. Kayani, who often prides himself in how very little others know about him, is about to be thrust into the limelight.

The things that we do know about him reveal him to be a likely favorite of some very important stakeholders, namely President Musharraf, Benazir Bhutto, and the United States.

Kayani is described by many as first and foremost a professional soldier with no political aspirations. In Musharraf’s eyes, this alone, coupled with the fact that he is fiercely loyal the president, makes him the ideal candidate for the next COAS.

An infantryman, he got his start in the famed Baloch Regiment. Kayani also underwent training tours in the United States and still retains links within the US military. He rose to eventually serve Benazir Bhutto as her deputy military secretary during her first stint as prime minister.

His career progressed and he went on to serve as Director General of Military Operations (DGMO). It was during his tenure as DGMO that the intense military standoff of 2001-2002 between Pakistan and India took place. Reportedly, Kayani only slept a few hours a night during that period as he diligently oversaw the army’s mobilization and preparedness on the border.

In September 2003, he was appointed Corps Commander of the powerful X Corps at Rawalpindi. (It was the X Corps that launched the coup of October 1999 that brought Musharraf to power.) As Corps Commander, Kayani was tasked with hunting down the terrorists behind the twin assassination attempts on Musharraf’s life in December 2003. He successfully did so, infiltrating their networks and resultantly was awarded the Hilal-i-Imtiaz or the “Crescent of Excellence,” Pakistan’s second highest civilian award.

Nearly a year later, in October 2004, he was named DG ISI. While occupying the post, Kayani has operated relatively quietly. It was only this year that he appeared on the public’s radar due to his involvement in a number of high profile stories including the president’s negotiations with Benazir Bhutto.

However, nothing is perhaps more telling of Kayani’s apolitical nature than his involvement in President Musharraf’s dismissal of Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry. Kayani was present at the infamous March 2007 meeting that took place between Musharraf and Chief Justice Chaudhry, when the latter was informed that he was suspended. Accounts of that meeting narrated that Kayani was the only one among Musharraf’s aides that did not speak a word. Furthermore, Kayani was also the only one present not to have filed an affidavit against the Chief Justice.

Last but not least, even though he is admittedly not a regular player, Kayani is also president of the Pakistan Golf Federation (PGF). After he’s appointed to his next role in the coming week, the next big question will be: what’s his golf handicap? We’d like to be the first to address that – it’s 18.

MUSHARRAF TO BHUTTO: SHAPE UP
Though not officially ISI chief yet, Nadeem Taj is already tasked with an assignment. Well placed individuals have reported that Taj will be flying to Washington sometime next week to meet with Bhutto, who herself is due to arrive on September 26th. He will be carrying a hardline, Armitagian message with him from Musharraf: “Agree to a deal, or else.”

This news implies a number of things. It first tells us that as of yet, there is no final agreement between Musharraf and Bhutto. It also gives us the impression that Musharraf is anxious to come to an agreement as the time draws near for him to shed his uniform. With the powers of the Presidency and COAS, Musharraf is still negotiating from a position of relative strength. Bhutto may just be biding her time, awaiting for someone with a potential soft spot for her (read: Kayani) to move into the Army House at GHQ. Finally, the meeting’s location – Washington, DC – highlights the continued role that the US is playing in trying to cobble together a coalition of moderate secularists in Pakistan.

The pace of wheeling, dealing, and change is quickening. The situation is as fluid as ever. Stay tuned.