We expect to see the further erosion of President Zardari’s government and his already tenuous grip on the country in the coming days and weeks. We also expect the “establishment” to actively strengthen competing factions within the PPP for the eventual replacement of Zardari (e.g. Atizaz Ahsan) as a means of returning stability to the country.

Expect some movement in Punjab; especially keep an eye on its governor, Salman Taseer.

Negroponte’s Visit
Undersecretary of State John Negroponte’s visit to Pakistan is probably the week’s biggest event. Having arrived in Pakistan on Friday, Negroponte met with President Gen. Pervez Musharraf, his advisor Tariq Aziz and Vice Chief of Army Staff Gen. Ashfaq Kayani. Wratcheting up pressure on Musharraf, the Bush administration dispatched Negroponte to demand a specified date when Musharraf would end the state of emergency. Negroponte went home dateless on Sunday.

The visit itself is not significant, but the potential American response is. In the eyes of the White House, Musharraf may no longer be the reliable ally he once was. Yes, there have been disagreements between the Bush adminstration and Musharraf from time to time (e.g. the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline), but never on high-profile matters like this. Couple Musharraf’s recalcitrance with the fact that Washington probably doesn’t appreciate how his alleged power grab could compromise the war on terror, and you may have a recipe for an American backed effort to remove Musharraf from power.

To those of you gasping at the thought, just take into account the fact that Negroponte met with Gen. Kayani twice during his visit, which according to many indicates American support for the general. If Musharraf goes, willingly or unwillingly, there’s atleast a fall back option. Kayani is a known Musharraf loyalist and unlikely to engage in any intrigues, but power does have its allure.

Interim Government Announced
The other big news of the week centered around Pres. Musharraf’s appointment of Senate Chairman Mohammadmian Soomro as caretaker prime minister along with the rest of his cabinet that will form the interim government.

Sources had reported over a week ago that Soomro would be appointed interim prime minister but I questioned the veracity of the news and did not report it. After all, Soomro is a known Musharraf loyalist and PML(Q) party member; a caretaker prime minister would need to be neutral for national elections to have any semblance of legitimacy. Surprisingly, not only was Soomro included in the interim government, but so were a whole host of vocal Musharraf supporters.

Musharraf, it appears, was not about to take any chances by having an interim government create a sticky situation for him or voice any opposition to him.

Some eyebrows were raised with the inclusion of Salman Taseer in the interim government given his prior links to the PPP. Taseer is the business magnate behind WorldCall and the Daily Times among other major business ventures. Sources insist that there is no signfiicance, however, Taseer’s involvement and Bhutto’s relative freedom vis-a-vis other opposition leaders may imply that some sort of accomodation is still possible between Musharraf and the PPP.

Skyguard Delivery Halted
On Wednesday, Switzerland indefinitely halted the delivery of Skyguard air defense batteries to Pakistan due to the on-going situation in Pakistan. Intended for the Pakistan Army, the 21 vehicle mounted anti-aircraft systems were excess inventory from the Swiss armed forces. In addition to the Skyguard units already owned and operated by the Pakistan Army, six batteries had already been delivered from the most recent purchase.

The prevention of delivery will not significantly damage Pakistan’s air defense capabilities, but it does raise fears that other left-leaning government may do the same for more vital defense equipment. One prime example is Sweden, with whom Pakistan recently signed a multi-billion dollar deal to purchase seven Erieye Airborne Warning and Control Systems (AWACS).

The Swiss will ultimately relent, however, the damage has been done to their future prospects of arms sales to Pakistan. Pakistan will likely turn to more reliable partners, such as France and China, for purchases and co-development of more advanced air defense systems. The same happened after the United States’ continual embargo of F-16’s that had been paid for by Pakistan; Pakistan, in conjunction with China, ended up developing and producing the JF-17 Thunder, a plane arguably better than earlier block F-16’s.