The French change of heart can likely be attributed to the new Sarkozy government in Paris and a recent Pakistani decision to purchase German submarines over French ones. Whatever the reason, this authorization could result in a significant boost for both the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) and France’s market position in Pakistan.

A Lethal Combination
By allowing Thales and MDBA to compete in Pakistan’s open tender for a radar/missile package for the JF-17, the French have significantly raised the bar for the plane as well as for competitor bids.

The RC-400 is an airborne radar that can detect, track, and fire upon multiple targets at long ranges simultaneously. It employs the use of electronic counter-countermeasures (ECCM – essentially, anti-jamming) and other advanced features such as SAR. The radar is more capable than the standard Chinese-made avionics that will be equipping the first production batch of JF-17’s.

The Mica is a medium range missile that has a range of approximately 60 km (~ 40 miles) meaning it’s capable of engaging targets beyond visual range (BVR). It includes advanced features such as thrust vectoring (TVC) allowing it to make drastic changes in direction at immense speeds.

To some of you, this may just be a long list of acronyms and technical jargon. In sum, it essentially translates into the Thunder becoming a true multi-role fighter with the capability to target land, air and sea targets in all conditions, day or night, at stand-off ranges.

It also forces other major suppliers who are or are considering participation in the open tender – such as Raytheon (US), Denel (South Africa), and FIAR (Italy) – to provide comparable packages at competitive prices. This will help Pakistan as it engages in commercial negotiations over the cost of a French package.

France’s Foothold
France and Pakistan have historically had very strong military ties. France has often supplied Pakistan with advanced weaponry when others wouldn’t. Today, Pakistan operates the largest fleet of French-made Mirage fighter aircraft outside of France, and to date, all of Pakistan’s submarines have been of French origin.

Recently however, defense ties between the two have been strained. Starting in 1998, with Pakistan’s nuclear tests, the French briefly withheld delivery of the first of three advanced Agosta 90B submarines Pakistan had purchased under transfer of technology (ToT) terms. Shortly thereafter, 11 French engineers working on the remaining Agosta’s were killed in a bombing of the Sheraton Hotel in Karachi, putting the program’s future in doubt for a short while.

After 9/11, Pakistan once again began relying heavily on US supplied weaponry while the French attempted to woo the Indians in the hopes of scoring large deals. In the process, the French alienated Pakistan and lost the loyalty of a longtime buyer. This was exhibited this past September when Pakistan opted to purchase German-made U-214 submarines over the French Marlin, despite France having authorized its sale.

By granting Pakistan access to an advanced radar and MRAAM, France is trying to regain lost footing in the Pakistani market. Ever the astute business people, the French are also undoubtedly eyeing the JF-17’s export potential, though many of the plane’s export targets will likely opt for an all-Chinese package.

Caveat Emptor
The French have a propensity to sell weaponry to Pakistan and then sell similar or better weapons to India (or vice versa), fuelling the existing arms races and their revenues. The most recent example of which was when after having agreed to supply Pakistan with the Agosta 90B submarine, they sold the newer Scorpene submarine to India. The very same could happen with the RC-400 radar and Mica MRAAM if a deal comes to fruition.

However, this sort of risk is inherent in any defense deal when there are two rivals engaged in an arms race. It doesn’t change the fact that even at a premium this package is far and away Pakistan’s best available option for the JF-17.

The Big Picture
The JF-17 is meant to be Pakistan’s unsanctionable, low-cost mainstay fighter, replacing aging Mirages and F-7’s (Chinese MiG-21’s) that constitute the bulk of the PAF fleet. With production expected to total 250, the JF-17 will form the medium component of the PAF’s mix of medium and high technology aircraft; the high component formed by the F-16 and the Chinese J-10 (Pakistani designation: FC-20).

The JF-17 will mark a quantum leap for the PAF in light of the aircraft it will be replacing. With the exception of a handful of upgraded Mirages, none of the planes in Pakistan’s current fleet have BVR capability; not even US-supplied F-16’s which are awaiting upgrade. The lack of BVR capability places Pakistan at a severe disadvantage vis-à-vis India whose air force operates multiple aircraft types that are BVR capable.

This will all change with the JF-17 which will have BVR capability and many other features currently unavailable on Pakistan’s Mirages and F-7’s. Not including its flight range and payload, the JF-17 is considered to be on par with if not superior in some aspects (e.g. avionics, thrust-to-weight ratio, etc.) to earlier versions of the F-16. In essence, the PAF will be replacing the bulk of its entire fleet with F-16-like planes, all equipped with BVR.

The JF-17’s induction, coupled with the purchase of brand new F-16’s and force multipliers such as Swedish and American Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) systems, marks a return to quality for the PAF, which in recent years had begun to rely on quantity having been crippled by sanctions. Though adopting all these new systems and developing new tactics will take time, it will give the PAF the confidence it needs to take on a much larger Indian Air Force (IAF).

For the global community, a confident and capable conventional military in Pakistan is vital – it raises Pakistan’s threshold for the use of nuclear weapons if ever a conflict were to break out between India and Pakistan.

Let’s hope we never have to test that threshold.