1. December 8th – Pakistan received the first of seven Saab 2000 Erieye Airborne Warning and Control Systems (AWACS).  The Erieye systems should go a long way in improving the situational awareness of Pakistan’s air force and monitoring of IAF movement deep within Indian territory.  However, the benefits of the AWACS won’t be felt until Pakistan receives more (so that it can maintain constant air presence of the systems) and has more time to develop and “operationalize” tactics associated with the technology.
2. December 7th -  Insider Brief sources reported that Pakistan had successfully test flown a drone based on U.S. technology.  The sources reported that the technology was drawn from a drone shot down in September 2008 and had been secretly shipped to China for study — in line with our expectations from last year — though I’m a little surprised at the gestation period.  Reverse engineering a Predator drone and translating those learnings into a prototype in a little over a year seems ambitious, but may have been enabled by Chinese involvement and the fact that Pakistan already has an established UAV industry.  The new drone likely has greater endurance, altitude, and range — notable limitations for Pakistani UAV technology in the past.  A greater boon would be if the downed Predator drone from last year was a UCAV (capable of firing Hellfire missiles).
3. November 23th – Pakistan inducted its first domestically produced JF-17 fighter.  The plane, co-developed and co-produced with the Chinese, is a major milestone on Pakistan’s path for self-reliance in combat aircraft.  The JF-17, once inducted en masse, will significantly boost Pakistan’s overall capability as we detailed back in 2007.
4. November 11th – Pakistan announced that it would be purchasing J-10 fighters  from China in a preliminary agreement.  The J-10 acquisition is a good move that displays the PAF’s continued fiscal discipline and long-term thinking.  The J-10, considered on par with later block F-16’s that Pakistan’s purchased from the U.S., would help diversify Pakistan’s suppliers of hi-tech aircraft all the while sidestepping the threat of potential U.S. arms embargoes.  With a mix of J-10’s, F-16’s and JF-17’s coupled with Erieye AWACS, Pakistan’s air force will be creating a highly potent and cost effective model for minimum deterrence.  (I note fiscal discipline in that the J-10, though expensive, is not as pricey as other Western options in the market.)

Successful Strategy
As part of its strategy, the military initially sought to strike Taliban hideouts, training camps, arms caches, tunnels and safe houses.  This was done to destroy their infrastructure and also minimize the degree of fighting taking place in populated, urban areas.  Taking aim at these targets forced the Taliban to fight “outwards” in the mountains and provide more tactical space for army personnel in the Swat Valley itself.

Precision strikes were carried out by the air force while the army launched three brigade-size offensives from three different directions, forcing the Taliban to fight on multiple fronts.  The Special Services Group (commonly referred to as the SSG, Pakistan’s special forces) conducted a large-scale airborne raid on the primary Taliban base in Peochar Valley.

A month into its campaign, Pakistan’s military has wrested control of and secured Mingora, Swat’s largest city.

The military continues to maintain persistent pressure on militants by carrying out raids, laying ambushes, and cordoning off zones for search and destroy operations.  The purpose for all of which is to ensure psychological and tactical ascendancy against the Taliban.

There is also a strong desire on the part of the military to eliminate Taliban leadership in Swat.  Recent rumors that Maulana Fazlullah, leader of the Taliban in Swat, was killed by Pakistani gunships were discredited after the Pakistani government increased its bounty on Fazlullah’s head.  Insider Brief sources within the Pakistani military report that US sources originated the rumors but that chatter on Taliban networks also spoke of Fazlullah’s death.  The chatter was likely a means of diverting the military’s focus on hunting the “Radio Mullah.”

From Swat to South Waziristan
Having taken Mingora, the military has set its sights on Charbagh where action is expected soon.  Other pockets of Taliban resistance still remain in several valleys north and west of Mingora.

Beyond Swat lies South Waziristan, which the military believes to be the center of gravity for the Taliban.  Our sources also report that operations can begin in South Waziristan as early as the first week of June.

It’s worth noting that despite official claims that upwards of 3,000 militants have been killed in Swat, our sources state that the number of dead militants is likely somewhere between 500 and 600.  It’s important to be mindful of this as the military seeks to consolidate the gains it has made in Swat and hold territory.  The number of militants in Swat likely ranged in the thousands at its peak, meaning that many militants were merely pushed back into the mountains or dissolved into the general population.

As internally displaced persons (IDPs) and administrative structures return to Swat, it will be important for the military to maintain much of its strength (two divisions) there.  This ultimately means that more troops will have to be called up for the far more difficult operation that lies ahead in South Waziristan.

Sovereignty in Swat
Over 2.4 million people have been displaced by the fighting, creating what the UN describes as the worst refugee crisis since Rwanda.  With fighting winding down in Swat, these IDPs will begin returning home to widespread destruction (many have started returning home to neighboring Buner).  The resulting discontent has the potential to turn Swat into a breeding ground for the Taliban.

Back in November 2007, we contended that, “only when you have a hand in bettering someone’s life can you claim sovereignty over where they live.”

With US financial support, Pakistan must use the opportunity provided by the devastation in Swat to undertake massive rebuilding and modernization efforts there.  Model villages can be developed similar to the ones built after the massive earthquake that struck northern Pakistan in October 2005.  Administrative structures can be built from the ground up keeping in mind that prior discontent in Swat related to government inefficiencies (particularly in the judicial system).

This can prove to be an important first step in bringing Pakistan’s Wild West into the fold.

Analysis
Viewed in the context of multiplying reports covering US cross-border incursions and strikes in Pakistan’s northwest, the downed UAV was likely a Predator drone. Whether the drone was a UCAV – unmanned combat aerial vehicle – equipped with Hellfire missiles, is unclear. What is increasingly clear from reports, however, is that the drone and its parts were collected by Pakistani security forces largely in tact. Gaining access to the Predator’s technology should prove to be a boon for Pakistan.

Pakistan’s indigenous UAV technology is by no means rudimentary. Its UAV industry has been growing at a rapid pace over the course of the past decade, driven by both government-funded and private sector programs. In fact, the US Border Guard even purchased the Pakistani-made “Border Eagle” UAV in 2004. But while it has been adept at developing short-to-medium range tactical UAVs, Pakistan’s industry has faced a gap in its ability to develop longer range, long endurance UAVs.

To fill this gap, Pakistan sought to purchase the Predator UAV from the US. The US declined to sell the Predator to Pakistan, despite its utility in monitoring Pakistan’s treacherous border with Afghanistan. Now, Pakistan has access to some of the best American-made UAV technology at the cost of a few dozen shell casings.

It’s worth noting that this wouldn’t be the first time that Pakistan has used access to American technology to further its own indigenous defense programs. In August 1998, near the tail end of the Clinton administration, the US launched Tomahawk cruise missile strikes on terrorist training camps in Afghanistan. At least two of those cruise missiles failed to reach their targets and landed in Pakistani territory – unexploded. Seven years later in August 2005, Pakistan test launched its first cruise missile, the Babur (Hatf-VII). The Babur, a high-speed, low-level terrain following cruise missile, bore a number of similarities to the Tomahawk.

Let’s see what Pakistan is test flying five years from now.

(Editor’s Note: Apologies for my conspicuous absence over the last month or so. I’m afraid my posting will likely be sporadic in the coming months as I’m occupied with multiple projects. In the meanwhile, I’ve got 3 posts in the queue and hope to have them published soon. I’ll be dealing with the Marriott bombing, Pakistan’s armed forces, and relations with the US, keep an eye out.)

The French change of heart can likely be attributed to the new Sarkozy government in Paris and a recent Pakistani decision to purchase German submarines over French ones. Whatever the reason, this authorization could result in a significant boost for both the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) and France’s market position in Pakistan.

A Lethal Combination
By allowing Thales and MDBA to compete in Pakistan’s open tender for a radar/missile package for the JF-17, the French have significantly raised the bar for the plane as well as for competitor bids.

The RC-400 is an airborne radar that can detect, track, and fire upon multiple targets at long ranges simultaneously. It employs the use of electronic counter-countermeasures (ECCM – essentially, anti-jamming) and other advanced features such as SAR. The radar is more capable than the standard Chinese-made avionics that will be equipping the first production batch of JF-17’s.

The Mica is a medium range missile that has a range of approximately 60 km (~ 40 miles) meaning it’s capable of engaging targets beyond visual range (BVR). It includes advanced features such as thrust vectoring (TVC) allowing it to make drastic changes in direction at immense speeds.

To some of you, this may just be a long list of acronyms and technical jargon. In sum, it essentially translates into the Thunder becoming a true multi-role fighter with the capability to target land, air and sea targets in all conditions, day or night, at stand-off ranges.

It also forces other major suppliers who are or are considering participation in the open tender – such as Raytheon (US), Denel (South Africa), and FIAR (Italy) – to provide comparable packages at competitive prices. This will help Pakistan as it engages in commercial negotiations over the cost of a French package.

France’s Foothold
France and Pakistan have historically had very strong military ties. France has often supplied Pakistan with advanced weaponry when others wouldn’t. Today, Pakistan operates the largest fleet of French-made Mirage fighter aircraft outside of France, and to date, all of Pakistan’s submarines have been of French origin.

Recently however, defense ties between the two have been strained. Starting in 1998, with Pakistan’s nuclear tests, the French briefly withheld delivery of the first of three advanced Agosta 90B submarines Pakistan had purchased under transfer of technology (ToT) terms. Shortly thereafter, 11 French engineers working on the remaining Agosta’s were killed in a bombing of the Sheraton Hotel in Karachi, putting the program’s future in doubt for a short while.

After 9/11, Pakistan once again began relying heavily on US supplied weaponry while the French attempted to woo the Indians in the hopes of scoring large deals. In the process, the French alienated Pakistan and lost the loyalty of a longtime buyer. This was exhibited this past September when Pakistan opted to purchase German-made U-214 submarines over the French Marlin, despite France having authorized its sale.

By granting Pakistan access to an advanced radar and MRAAM, France is trying to regain lost footing in the Pakistani market. Ever the astute business people, the French are also undoubtedly eyeing the JF-17’s export potential, though many of the plane’s export targets will likely opt for an all-Chinese package.

Caveat Emptor
The French have a propensity to sell weaponry to Pakistan and then sell similar or better weapons to India (or vice versa), fuelling the existing arms races and their revenues. The most recent example of which was when after having agreed to supply Pakistan with the Agosta 90B submarine, they sold the newer Scorpene submarine to India. The very same could happen with the RC-400 radar and Mica MRAAM if a deal comes to fruition.

However, this sort of risk is inherent in any defense deal when there are two rivals engaged in an arms race. It doesn’t change the fact that even at a premium this package is far and away Pakistan’s best available option for the JF-17.

The Big Picture
The JF-17 is meant to be Pakistan’s unsanctionable, low-cost mainstay fighter, replacing aging Mirages and F-7’s (Chinese MiG-21’s) that constitute the bulk of the PAF fleet. With production expected to total 250, the JF-17 will form the medium component of the PAF’s mix of medium and high technology aircraft; the high component formed by the F-16 and the Chinese J-10 (Pakistani designation: FC-20).

The JF-17 will mark a quantum leap for the PAF in light of the aircraft it will be replacing. With the exception of a handful of upgraded Mirages, none of the planes in Pakistan’s current fleet have BVR capability; not even US-supplied F-16’s which are awaiting upgrade. The lack of BVR capability places Pakistan at a severe disadvantage vis-à-vis India whose air force operates multiple aircraft types that are BVR capable.

This will all change with the JF-17 which will have BVR capability and many other features currently unavailable on Pakistan’s Mirages and F-7’s. Not including its flight range and payload, the JF-17 is considered to be on par with if not superior in some aspects (e.g. avionics, thrust-to-weight ratio, etc.) to earlier versions of the F-16. In essence, the PAF will be replacing the bulk of its entire fleet with F-16-like planes, all equipped with BVR.

The JF-17’s induction, coupled with the purchase of brand new F-16’s and force multipliers such as Swedish and American Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) systems, marks a return to quality for the PAF, which in recent years had begun to rely on quantity having been crippled by sanctions. Though adopting all these new systems and developing new tactics will take time, it will give the PAF the confidence it needs to take on a much larger Indian Air Force (IAF).

For the global community, a confident and capable conventional military in Pakistan is vital – it raises Pakistan’s threshold for the use of nuclear weapons if ever a conflict were to break out between India and Pakistan.

Let’s hope we never have to test that threshold.