Hello Shaan,

My appearance on the TV is rather coincidental. Am not a person of great timings, as you put it. If I could make such calculations, my life would have been miserable. I am happy in the lost paradise that I have been living in. Due to the NRO issue I was pushed to speak in support of anti-corruption, despite my belief that no meaningful improvements in this field can come in the foreseeable time. In fact, some time back, I was (forcefully) invited to speak at the forum of PILDAT on the new anti-corruption bill which was then under debate [read:  Gen. Aziz's talking points].  I termed it “munafiqat ki benazir misaal” [epitome of hypocrisy] in my opening remark, on which all politicians present, including PML(N), got furious. They really don’t like generals. Can’t blame them too.

My appearance on TV now, has wandered into the terrorism issue, which, as you know, is also the other serious concern of mine. This is because of my involvement in these issues, while I served the Army and then the Government, and the moral burden I carry from there.  I cannot say where all this anti-terrorism will end, but has certainly landed us in a blood bath. There are the mullahs on one side and US policy pursuits on the other. And the miserable lot of Pakistanis crushed in the middle.

Other than personal attacks on me in the media, I am told that NAB is looking into my ‘deeds’ during my stay as Chairman. To my good luck, I had taken certain measures for changes within NAB, one of which included transparency within the department. We had weekly meetings in a board room attended by the concerned investigators, prosecutors, deputy directors, directors, DGs, Deputy Prosecutor General Accountability, Prosecutor General Accountability and Deputy Chairman NAB. All cases were presented here on Power Point, debated and decision arrived at. I had also passed written instructions that if a case of any relative of any one serving in NAB or any one who is someone in the country is presented it will be announced in the board room. I announced my decision and signed all formal documents for opening/closing cases, etc in that meeting, in presence of everyone. And all this was recorded on close circuit TV for posterity. I didn’t sign any such paper in the privacy of my office. I wonder if these records would also be brought out, in my support. Or if any one serving with me in these assignments would speak up. But I doubt.

I once invited some important people from the media, during my initial days, for sharing my thoughts and problems with them and seeking support from them in my solo fight against the sitting government — got no support. The political environment at the time I joined NAB was quite charged and no one would want to be seen supporting a general. This meeting was also held in the same room and was recorded in camera, as all meetings in this room, post my arrival. All my meetings with people who were under investigation were held in a meeting room which were video recorded and the record is now held with NAB. This was also started by me. I didn’t meet these people in my office, including Malik Riaz of Behria.

On 9the Dec 2006, on the Anti-Corruption Day NAB organized an anti-corruption march on Constitution Avenue in Islamabad. Edhi Saheb [Abdul Sattar Edhi] came to lead it. Our call was “UNITE AGAINST CORRUPTION”. I tried to rally support from the media and the public, but none came, except some school and college children with our request to them. Earlier that day the President was to come for the formal Anti-Corruption Day function but didn’t and the PM came. He openly abused NAB for its misdeeds. Later during tea, when the PM had gone away, the news reporters gathered around me and one of them asked why the PM was so furious with me. I told him, “Why don’t you ask the PM?” to which one of the reporters said, “We know. It is because you are doing POL inquiry against him.” I also have the PM’s remarks video with me.

All those who know me and have served with me for 30 years just sit back and see the muck being thrown at me. I have a history with good and bad, like every one else, but only the bad is shown around. The good might bewilder you. In my initial days at the NAB when I saw some of the cases being pursued, I cautioned my department not to continue to chase the gunahgars [sinners] but to go after the shiateen [devils], after all, Jannat  [heaven] will be fully loaded with gunahgars. And the shiateen here point fingers at the gunahgars so that all appear as one and no distinction remains. And now I am to be counted amongst one of them. After all I have lived 60 years and have had slips and slides on the way.

I have now decided not to respond to any personal allegations and continue my small effort for a better and peaceful Pakistan. If I am to be paraded through the cities with blackened face and it brings only a notch of goodness in the country I have succeeded.

Pray for my guidance from Allah.

Best regards,
SA

We at the Insider Brief have refrained from chiming in on the issue because there has been far too much disinformation and sensationalism out there clouding the actual story and underlying events. As more information has become available to us, we will briefly try to make heads or tails of the situation in Islamabad.

Our sources report that anxiously waiting Pakistan-watchers can likely expect some major news on Monday. The last time our sources told us to expect “major news,” Musharraf shed his uniform; this time may be a little different. We’re hesitant to speculate that Musharraf will resign due to what we’ve been hearing. The level of leaks and “inside news” emerging from Pakistani and American papers alike is unprecedented – and for good reason. Sources further report that a thorough disinformation campaign is being carried out by Pakistani intelligence agencies (“lafafa” journalism anyone?).

We believe that the campaign may be an attempt to focus the attention of Pakistanis and foreign governments towards the prospect of Musharraf’s resignation, away from the idea that he may be planning something altogether different. Based off chatter we’ve picked up on, we believe that any alternate plans being chalked up by Musharraf and the establishment may relate to the repeal of the National Reconciliation Order (NRO) that absolved the likes of Asif Zardari and Nawaz Sharif of their sins, fabricated or otherwise.

Our rationale is based off the fact that Musharraf allowed for the return and political participation of the late Bhutto, and to some degree the Sharifs, with the understanding that they would play by the rules laid out by the establishment. By pursuing Musharraf’s impeachment, they crossed the line in the sand. Now if Musharraf must go, he will pursue mutually assured destruction, bringing the coalition government down with him.

Ultimately, even if Musharraf does go, it’s of little consequence. As president, his constitutional powers are largely ceremonial – for whatever the constitution’s worth.

DECEITFUL DEALINGS EXPOSED?
The Jeddah visit proves to be a very interesting development especially when viewed in the context of the “chatter” that we’ve been picking up on from some of our sources. We’ve consistently heard over the last week that President Musharraf, having won his re-election bid with the tacit support of Benazir Bhutto, is abandoning his deal with her. He is allegedly banking on the Supreme Court to strike down the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) which grants Bhutto, among others, amnesty from pending criminal charges. And while the delegitimized Bhutto will not be returning to Pakistan, Nawaz Sharif will. At the time, this scenario was both highly speculative and implausible for many reasons and as a result, we left it unreported.

The first mention of this potential outcome came shortly after Pakistan Muslim League (Q) president, Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, appeared at a news conference with Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz early last week saying that the NRO was a ploy and that Bhutto had lost at a political game. Though some knowledgeable individuals claimed that Hussain had been told by Musharraf to say what he did, it was far more likely that the comments reflected an attempt to throw a wrench in the Musharraf-Bhutto deal. It was reasoned that the Chaudhry cousins, who campaigned hard for Musharraf during the recent presidential elections, were trying equally hard to maintain their relevancy.

A few days later however, Musharraf made the suggestion during a TV interview that Bhutto delay her return. This, despite an almost immediate rejection of the idea from Bhutto, coupled with news of the Jeddah trip, led us to question whether there was any credence to what we had been hearing.

COMPULSIONS FOR MOHTARMA AND MUSHARRAF
Having re-evaluated our position, the aforementioned scenario forecast by some of our sources still remains improbable, though not as speculative, as the Supreme Court has agreed to review the NRO.

There is one major reason Musharraf cannot abandon a deal with Bhutto – the United States. The US has a high degree of vested interest in seeing the Musharraf-Bhutto deal come to fruition and has spent a great deal of political capital trying to make it happen. If Musharraf hopes to maintain the continued support of the US government — a major prop for his regime — he must remain committed to a power sharing agreement with Bhutto. There have already been some signs a la State Department commentary signaling that the American government may be distancing itself from Musharraf.

Bhutto on the other hand cannot afford to not return to Pakistan on October 18th as we’ve stated in the past. This is Bhutto’s last chance to return to power and redeem herself. If this window of opportunity closes, she will be relegated in history as yet another failed ruler in Pakistan’s long line of over-hyped disappointments. For her credibility to stay in tact, she must return to Pakistan on the 18th regardless of whether or not the Supreme Court strikes down the NRO.

A FRAGMENTED FRAMEWORK
So where does the Jeddah visit fit into all of this? The delegation likely flew to Jeddah to discuss with Nawaz Sharif the terms of his and/or Shahbaz Sharif’s return to Pakistan. Since his deportation back to Saudi Arabia, the Saudis have kept Sharif on a short leash. If he hopes to leave Saudi Arabia, it will have to be with Musharraf’s consent.

One may question what incentive Musharraf has to allow either of the Sharif brothers to return to Pakistan. The truth is that though Musharraf is beholden to the Americans to make a deal with Bhutto, he doesn’t have to guarantee that she or anyone else is all that powerful. By forcing the PPP and PML(Q) into a coalition government all the while re-activating the PML(N) through the return of its leadership, Musharraf would be creating a fractured political environment with multiple, nearly co-equal players. Under the probable guise of national reconciliation, he would effectively be neutralizing the Chaudhry’s, the Sharif’s and Bhutto by playing them off one another. The very fact that the Jeddah visit was made by Army officials and not civilian political operatives makes us believe that the Chaudhry’s were not to have any say in or knowledge of negotiations with Sharif.

On the surface, it may appear as though Musharraf is conceding power to the country’s politicians, but the reality is that he’s ensuring, with the Army’s backing, that he will remain the single most powerful player in Pakistani politics.

How the Supreme Court acts in the coming days is anyone’s guess. One thing is certain though – Musharraf is proving to be a very deft politician.