1. December 8th – Pakistan received the first of seven Saab 2000 Erieye Airborne Warning and Control Systems (AWACS).  The Erieye systems should go a long way in improving the situational awareness of Pakistan’s air force and monitoring of IAF movement deep within Indian territory.  However, the benefits of the AWACS won’t be felt until Pakistan receives more (so that it can maintain constant air presence of the systems) and has more time to develop and “operationalize” tactics associated with the technology.
2. December 7th -  Insider Brief sources reported that Pakistan had successfully test flown a drone based on U.S. technology.  The sources reported that the technology was drawn from a drone shot down in September 2008 and had been secretly shipped to China for study — in line with our expectations from last year — though I’m a little surprised at the gestation period.  Reverse engineering a Predator drone and translating those learnings into a prototype in a little over a year seems ambitious, but may have been enabled by Chinese involvement and the fact that Pakistan already has an established UAV industry.  The new drone likely has greater endurance, altitude, and range — notable limitations for Pakistani UAV technology in the past.  A greater boon would be if the downed Predator drone from last year was a UCAV (capable of firing Hellfire missiles).
3. November 23th – Pakistan inducted its first domestically produced JF-17 fighter.  The plane, co-developed and co-produced with the Chinese, is a major milestone on Pakistan’s path for self-reliance in combat aircraft.  The JF-17, once inducted en masse, will significantly boost Pakistan’s overall capability as we detailed back in 2007.
4. November 11th – Pakistan announced that it would be purchasing J-10 fighters  from China in a preliminary agreement.  The J-10 acquisition is a good move that displays the PAF’s continued fiscal discipline and long-term thinking.  The J-10, considered on par with later block F-16’s that Pakistan’s purchased from the U.S., would help diversify Pakistan’s suppliers of hi-tech aircraft all the while sidestepping the threat of potential U.S. arms embargoes.  With a mix of J-10’s, F-16’s and JF-17’s coupled with Erieye AWACS, Pakistan’s air force will be creating a highly potent and cost effective model for minimum deterrence.  (I note fiscal discipline in that the J-10, though expensive, is not as pricey as other Western options in the market.)

Negroponte’s Visit
Undersecretary of State John Negroponte’s visit to Pakistan is probably the week’s biggest event. Having arrived in Pakistan on Friday, Negroponte met with President Gen. Pervez Musharraf, his advisor Tariq Aziz and Vice Chief of Army Staff Gen. Ashfaq Kayani. Wratcheting up pressure on Musharraf, the Bush administration dispatched Negroponte to demand a specified date when Musharraf would end the state of emergency. Negroponte went home dateless on Sunday.

The visit itself is not significant, but the potential American response is. In the eyes of the White House, Musharraf may no longer be the reliable ally he once was. Yes, there have been disagreements between the Bush adminstration and Musharraf from time to time (e.g. the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline), but never on high-profile matters like this. Couple Musharraf’s recalcitrance with the fact that Washington probably doesn’t appreciate how his alleged power grab could compromise the war on terror, and you may have a recipe for an American backed effort to remove Musharraf from power.

To those of you gasping at the thought, just take into account the fact that Negroponte met with Gen. Kayani twice during his visit, which according to many indicates American support for the general. If Musharraf goes, willingly or unwillingly, there’s atleast a fall back option. Kayani is a known Musharraf loyalist and unlikely to engage in any intrigues, but power does have its allure.

Interim Government Announced
The other big news of the week centered around Pres. Musharraf’s appointment of Senate Chairman Mohammadmian Soomro as caretaker prime minister along with the rest of his cabinet that will form the interim government.

Sources had reported over a week ago that Soomro would be appointed interim prime minister but I questioned the veracity of the news and did not report it. After all, Soomro is a known Musharraf loyalist and PML(Q) party member; a caretaker prime minister would need to be neutral for national elections to have any semblance of legitimacy. Surprisingly, not only was Soomro included in the interim government, but so were a whole host of vocal Musharraf supporters.

Musharraf, it appears, was not about to take any chances by having an interim government create a sticky situation for him or voice any opposition to him.

Some eyebrows were raised with the inclusion of Salman Taseer in the interim government given his prior links to the PPP. Taseer is the business magnate behind WorldCall and the Daily Times among other major business ventures. Sources insist that there is no signfiicance, however, Taseer’s involvement and Bhutto’s relative freedom vis-a-vis other opposition leaders may imply that some sort of accomodation is still possible between Musharraf and the PPP.

Skyguard Delivery Halted
On Wednesday, Switzerland indefinitely halted the delivery of Skyguard air defense batteries to Pakistan due to the on-going situation in Pakistan. Intended for the Pakistan Army, the 21 vehicle mounted anti-aircraft systems were excess inventory from the Swiss armed forces. In addition to the Skyguard units already owned and operated by the Pakistan Army, six batteries had already been delivered from the most recent purchase.

The prevention of delivery will not significantly damage Pakistan’s air defense capabilities, but it does raise fears that other left-leaning government may do the same for more vital defense equipment. One prime example is Sweden, with whom Pakistan recently signed a multi-billion dollar deal to purchase seven Erieye Airborne Warning and Control Systems (AWACS).

The Swiss will ultimately relent, however, the damage has been done to their future prospects of arms sales to Pakistan. Pakistan will likely turn to more reliable partners, such as France and China, for purchases and co-development of more advanced air defense systems. The same happened after the United States’ continual embargo of F-16’s that had been paid for by Pakistan; Pakistan, in conjunction with China, ended up developing and producing the JF-17 Thunder, a plane arguably better than earlier block F-16’s.

The French change of heart can likely be attributed to the new Sarkozy government in Paris and a recent Pakistani decision to purchase German submarines over French ones. Whatever the reason, this authorization could result in a significant boost for both the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) and France’s market position in Pakistan.

A Lethal Combination
By allowing Thales and MDBA to compete in Pakistan’s open tender for a radar/missile package for the JF-17, the French have significantly raised the bar for the plane as well as for competitor bids.

The RC-400 is an airborne radar that can detect, track, and fire upon multiple targets at long ranges simultaneously. It employs the use of electronic counter-countermeasures (ECCM – essentially, anti-jamming) and other advanced features such as SAR. The radar is more capable than the standard Chinese-made avionics that will be equipping the first production batch of JF-17’s.

The Mica is a medium range missile that has a range of approximately 60 km (~ 40 miles) meaning it’s capable of engaging targets beyond visual range (BVR). It includes advanced features such as thrust vectoring (TVC) allowing it to make drastic changes in direction at immense speeds.

To some of you, this may just be a long list of acronyms and technical jargon. In sum, it essentially translates into the Thunder becoming a true multi-role fighter with the capability to target land, air and sea targets in all conditions, day or night, at stand-off ranges.

It also forces other major suppliers who are or are considering participation in the open tender – such as Raytheon (US), Denel (South Africa), and FIAR (Italy) – to provide comparable packages at competitive prices. This will help Pakistan as it engages in commercial negotiations over the cost of a French package.

France’s Foothold
France and Pakistan have historically had very strong military ties. France has often supplied Pakistan with advanced weaponry when others wouldn’t. Today, Pakistan operates the largest fleet of French-made Mirage fighter aircraft outside of France, and to date, all of Pakistan’s submarines have been of French origin.

Recently however, defense ties between the two have been strained. Starting in 1998, with Pakistan’s nuclear tests, the French briefly withheld delivery of the first of three advanced Agosta 90B submarines Pakistan had purchased under transfer of technology (ToT) terms. Shortly thereafter, 11 French engineers working on the remaining Agosta’s were killed in a bombing of the Sheraton Hotel in Karachi, putting the program’s future in doubt for a short while.

After 9/11, Pakistan once again began relying heavily on US supplied weaponry while the French attempted to woo the Indians in the hopes of scoring large deals. In the process, the French alienated Pakistan and lost the loyalty of a longtime buyer. This was exhibited this past September when Pakistan opted to purchase German-made U-214 submarines over the French Marlin, despite France having authorized its sale.

By granting Pakistan access to an advanced radar and MRAAM, France is trying to regain lost footing in the Pakistani market. Ever the astute business people, the French are also undoubtedly eyeing the JF-17’s export potential, though many of the plane’s export targets will likely opt for an all-Chinese package.

Caveat Emptor
The French have a propensity to sell weaponry to Pakistan and then sell similar or better weapons to India (or vice versa), fuelling the existing arms races and their revenues. The most recent example of which was when after having agreed to supply Pakistan with the Agosta 90B submarine, they sold the newer Scorpene submarine to India. The very same could happen with the RC-400 radar and Mica MRAAM if a deal comes to fruition.

However, this sort of risk is inherent in any defense deal when there are two rivals engaged in an arms race. It doesn’t change the fact that even at a premium this package is far and away Pakistan’s best available option for the JF-17.

The Big Picture
The JF-17 is meant to be Pakistan’s unsanctionable, low-cost mainstay fighter, replacing aging Mirages and F-7’s (Chinese MiG-21’s) that constitute the bulk of the PAF fleet. With production expected to total 250, the JF-17 will form the medium component of the PAF’s mix of medium and high technology aircraft; the high component formed by the F-16 and the Chinese J-10 (Pakistani designation: FC-20).

The JF-17 will mark a quantum leap for the PAF in light of the aircraft it will be replacing. With the exception of a handful of upgraded Mirages, none of the planes in Pakistan’s current fleet have BVR capability; not even US-supplied F-16’s which are awaiting upgrade. The lack of BVR capability places Pakistan at a severe disadvantage vis-à-vis India whose air force operates multiple aircraft types that are BVR capable.

This will all change with the JF-17 which will have BVR capability and many other features currently unavailable on Pakistan’s Mirages and F-7’s. Not including its flight range and payload, the JF-17 is considered to be on par with if not superior in some aspects (e.g. avionics, thrust-to-weight ratio, etc.) to earlier versions of the F-16. In essence, the PAF will be replacing the bulk of its entire fleet with F-16-like planes, all equipped with BVR.

The JF-17’s induction, coupled with the purchase of brand new F-16’s and force multipliers such as Swedish and American Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) systems, marks a return to quality for the PAF, which in recent years had begun to rely on quantity having been crippled by sanctions. Though adopting all these new systems and developing new tactics will take time, it will give the PAF the confidence it needs to take on a much larger Indian Air Force (IAF).

For the global community, a confident and capable conventional military in Pakistan is vital – it raises Pakistan’s threshold for the use of nuclear weapons if ever a conflict were to break out between India and Pakistan.

Let’s hope we never have to test that threshold.