Pakistan Continues to Play Conventional Catch-Up

Shaan Akbar — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 15:31:08 +0000

While all eyes are focused on the insurgencies raging on both sides of Pakistan’s western border, Pakistan’s military continues to develop its conventional military capability alongside its counterinsurgency (COIN) capabilities. There have been four major developments in the two last months:

December 8th – Pakistan received the first of seven Saab 2000 Erieye Airborne Warning and Control Systems (AWACS). The Erieye systems should go a long way in improving the situational awareness of Pakistan’s air force and monitoring of IAF movement deep within Indian territory. However, the benefits of the AWACS won’t be felt until Pakistan receives more (so that it can maintain constant air presence of the systems) and has more time to develop and “operationalize” tactics associated with the technology.
December 7th - Insider Brief sources reported that Pakistan had successfully test flown a drone based on U.S. technology. The sources reported that the technology was drawn from a drone shot down in September 2008 and had been secretly shipped to China for study — in line with our expectations from last year — though I’m a little surprised at the gestation period. Reverse engineering a Predator drone and translating those learnings into a prototype in a little over a year seems ambitious, but may have been enabled by Chinese involvement and the fact that Pakistan already has an established UAV industry. The new drone likely has greater endurance, altitude, and range — notable limitations for Pakistani UAV technology in the past. A greater boon would be if the downed Predator drone from last year was a UCAV (capable of firing Hellfire missiles).
November 23th – Pakistan inducted its first domestically produced JF-17 fighter. The plane, co-developed and co-produced with the Chinese, is a major milestone on Pakistan’s path for self-reliance in combat aircraft. The JF-17, once inducted en masse, will significantly boost Pakistan’s overall capability as we detailed back in 2007.
November 11th – Pakistan announced that it would be purchasing J-10 fighters from China in a preliminary agreement. The J-10 acquisition is a good move that displays the PAF’s continued fiscal discipline and long-term thinking. The J-10, considered on par with later block F-16’s that Pakistan’s purchased from the U.S., would help diversify Pakistan’s suppliers of hi-tech aircraft all the while sidestepping the threat of potential U.S. arms embargoes. With a mix of J-10’s, F-16’s and JF-17’s coupled with Erieye AWACS, Pakistan’s air force will be creating a highly potent and cost effective model for minimum deterrence. (I note fiscal discipline in that the J-10, though expensive, is not as pricey as other Western options in the market.)

The Insider Brief » J-10

Pakistan Continues to Play Conventional Catch-Up