The elections in Pakistan are just about two weeks away. Musharraf is fulfilling his promise by my reckoning; or was it the Americans, the Brits, or the lawyers and politicians in Pakistan who deserve the credit? The burning question of the day is will the elections in Pakistan be fair and free? The media in the US and the opposition parties in Pakistan are convinced that they will be opaque and rigged. Scores of international observers are on their way to Pakistan to monitor the elections though they too are convinced they will be rigged, such is the power of suggestion. Now where does this leave Musharraf, between a hard place and a rock? I think so.

Almost every body who is anybody in the US, starting with powerful voices on the Hill, the media, every South Asian think tanker worth his salt and let us not forget the Pakistani American scholar struggling to find a position in the land of opportunity have lambasted Musharraf for everything wrong in Pakistan. Let Ambassador Durrani and his team rave and rant that Musharraf is the best thing that has happened to Pakistan in recent decades, alas the opinion die is cast; Musharraf is a dictator and the elections will be rigged.

The Pakistani media, which expanded exponentially under Musharraf, the whiskey swirling liberals in Islamabad and Lahore and the major political parties with impeccable democratic credentials from the right, the left and the center all warn of the upcoming rigged elections, as they brainwash the representatives of foreign Government and the foreign media of the dictatorial credentials of Musharraf. The Joan of Arc launched by the US is a hot favorite for her liberal credentials. Of course we will turn a blind eye to her dictatorial credentials within her party and her Mr. 10 % who is upping the rate to 15 % because of global warming and the rising price of oil. Another favorite is the Saudi launched democrat who during one of his tenures launched a frontal attack on the Supreme Court and has deep connections with the religious right. Another positive about the Saudi launch is his ambition to become the Amir ul Mohmaneen, the rightful successor of the Zia ul Haq legacy, so help us God.The patient commoner of Pakistan with the wisdom of poverty, has discovered the right formula for obtaining justice in Pakistan and I quote him, “if you have a case in court, you have multiple choices — hire a lawyer, or hire a judge, if the going gets tough better still hire a judge through a lawyer, and in case you have no money lump it.”  It is this wisdom that kept the common citizen from joining the protesting penguins (black suited lawyers); the alternatives to Musharraf did not appeal to them. Nor do they appeal to me.

I honestly believe Musharraf is indeed the best thing that has happened to Pakistan in a long time. He has turned around the sick economy of Pakistan, has improved the lot of the common man, enhanced the status of women, built the civil society, is improving education and is a true liberal. Not a single scandal of corruption against his name. Let me not push my luck but I feel he has done more for democracy than any of his recent predecessors. Yes he has made mistakes, is fighting an unpopular war and his popularity has plummeted. Incidentally his popularity is no worse than that of the Congress in the US. Musharraf at the helm for another five years will be in the best interest of Pakistan and I believe the US too, mark my words.

The News: Reuters
With Gen. Ashfaq Kayani’s ascendancy to the role of Chief of Army Staff (COAS), Reuters published an article on Nov. 28th titled, “Five Facts on Pakistan’s New Army Chief – Kayani,” in which they cited the Insider Brief.

On the Web: Watandost
In his latest blog post entitled, “Three New Excellent Blogs on Pakistan,” Hassan Abbas of Watandost recommended three Pakistan-focused blogs to his readers, one of which happened to be the Insider Brief. A published author and former Pakistani government official, Abbas is also a Research Fellow at the Belfer Center’s Project on Managing the Atom and International Security Program. His recognition, like that of the PCR Project, means a lot to us.

On the Radio: The John Batchelor Show
Last night, I appeared on the John Batchelor Show to discuss the rise of Gen. Ashfaq Kayani and President Musharraf’s future. You can listen to my conversation with John by using the player below.

Download audio file (wabc-interview-20071202-pakintel.mp3)
(Download file)

John’s show airs on Sundays, WABC 770AM in New York from 7-10pm EST (webcast), and KFI 640AM in Los Angeles from 7-10pm PST (webcast).

In short: there’s a heck of a lot going on.

When the situation is this fluid, it creates an environment rife with speculation. At the center of all the speculation has been President Musharraf’s relationship with General Kayani. We’d like to clear the air.

Army Reshuffle in March 2008
The Asia Times Online reported that Gen. Ashfaq Kayani was engaging in a major reshuffle of the Pakistan Army, consolidating his hold on power and removing Musharraf loyalists. Many in the news media picked up on this article, reported it and interpreted it as movement by Kayani against Musharraf. However almost immediately after the news came out, DG ISPR Maj. Gen. Waheed Arshad categorically stated that it was false.

One of the first things worth noting is that the Asia Times Online has never been a reliable source of news. Always engaging in some form of sensationalism, its Pakistan correspondent, Syed Saleem Shahzad, has consistently been wrong over the course of the past few years. It is absolutely confounding that respectable news outlets and private intelligence organizations (e.g. Stratfor — whom I have deep respect for, having worked with them in one way or another since 1999) continue to be duped by the Asia Times Online.

That being said, sources report that there is a scheduled reshuffle expected in March 2008 within the army. This reshuffle will likely take into account Pakistan’s post-election scenario, the status of the Musharraf presidency and the progress of military operations in the country’s northwest. In terms of what to expect for a reshuffle of the army’s mid-level officer corps, sources are reporting that Gen. Kayani is looking to replace the ISI provincial heads (Brigadiers) for Sindh and NWFP. Apparently they have been causing some big headaches and potentially may have Islamist leanings.

The Loyalty Question: the Army and Kayani
As speculation has implied, the big question is whether Kayani will stay loyal to Musharraf. We believe he will — for now. Through discussions with our sources, there appears to be a consensus that Gen. Kayani does not have political aspirations of his own. The consensus among our sources also reveals that for the time being, the current grouping of corps commanders remains loyal to Musharraf as well.

Kayani’s decision thus far to not appoint a Vice or Deputy Chief of Army Staff validates the notion that he intends on remaining apolitical. As we’ve stated in the past, a VCOAS/DCOAS is really only appointed when the Chief of Army Staff (COAS) is busy muddling in the country’s governance to the extent that he cannot effectively oversee the army’s day-to-day affairs. (Editor’s Note: VCOAS and DCOAS are the same position, the difference is in the number of stars. A VCOAS is a full 4-star general, while a DCOAS is a full 3-star general.)

So what could sway Kayani’s support away from Musharraf? The two most likely scenarios in which Kayani would withdraw support for Musharraf would involve either:

1. The US government determining that Musharraf is a liability to the war on terror.
2. Kayani determining that Musharraf’s presence in the presidency is either hurting the army’s image or counterproductive towards his goal of transitioning the army out of national affairs.

And though many in Pakistan seek to have the army completely extricate itself from the affairs of governance, at present, it’s not an entirely realistic goal. We argued recently that Musharraf stepping down from the army does not mark a paradigm shift. The Pakistan Army is likely to have a role in governing Pakistan for the near-to-medium term, something that we believe is not sustainable for the army or the nation in the long run. A consensus on a vision for the country’s future must be developed among all of Pakistan’s major power brokers so that the armed forces may finally take on their rightful role as the defenders of Pakistan, not its governors.

Outlook on Musharraf’s Future
We believe that as long as President Musharraf retains the support of Gen. Kayani, he will continue to hold the upper hand on the political scene as the country transitions back to democracy. After all, President Musharraf has no popular support base on which to rely. His constituency was and is the army. Without its support, he’s dead in the water. Working in coordination, Musharraf and Kayani have the potential to be a major force in this transition, setting the agenda for the country’s future. Five years is a long time however, and a lot can happen before then. We have a feeling that regardless of how much support President Musharraf receives from the army, he won’t be completing his second term as president.

Out with the New, In with the Old
Sources also report that President Musharraf has grown weary of the Chaudhry cousins (Parvez Elahi and Shujaat Hussain) and intends on bringing in the Sharif brothers (Nawaz and Shahbaz) to dilute their influence. I doubt Musharraf will entirely rid himself of the Chaudhries — he will need some civilian allies — but instead he will likely marginalize them to the point that they are forced to share power with the likes of Benazir Bhutto and the Sharifs. This is in line with our analysis from September stating that Musharraf wanted a diluted coalition government in place; it would shield him from criticism for being undemocratic, all the while allowing him to carry on his policies unchecked while coalition members would bicker among one another.

Resentment within the Army
We had reported earlier that there was resentment in the Pakistan Army over operations in Swat. Now, we are being told that there is broad resentment among the army’s mid-to-low ranking officers over Musharraf’s handling of Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif. They are particularly upset that Nawaz Sharif is being allowed to return, after they helped show him the door nearly a decade ago. The discontent over Musharraf’s policies has not spread to senior army leadership, which remains on board, likely understanding the compromises he needs to make in light of international (read: US) pressure. It also doesn’t hurt that they’re all hand picked Musharraf loyalists. Ultimately, this is bad news for Musharraf. The army is his constituency and power base. If his support continues to erode, he could soon find himself out of a job.

Intel Validation
We revealed exactly two weeks ago that the Bush administration, specifically Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte, had advance knowledge of President Musharraf’s plans of imposing a state of emergency in Pakistan. Today, the Wall Street Journal reported just that — that American diplomats had prior knowledge of the impending emergency.

Negroponte’s Visit
Undersecretary of State John Negroponte’s visit to Pakistan is probably the week’s biggest event. Having arrived in Pakistan on Friday, Negroponte met with President Gen. Pervez Musharraf, his advisor Tariq Aziz and Vice Chief of Army Staff Gen. Ashfaq Kayani. Wratcheting up pressure on Musharraf, the Bush administration dispatched Negroponte to demand a specified date when Musharraf would end the state of emergency. Negroponte went home dateless on Sunday.

The visit itself is not significant, but the potential American response is. In the eyes of the White House, Musharraf may no longer be the reliable ally he once was. Yes, there have been disagreements between the Bush adminstration and Musharraf from time to time (e.g. the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline), but never on high-profile matters like this. Couple Musharraf’s recalcitrance with the fact that Washington probably doesn’t appreciate how his alleged power grab could compromise the war on terror, and you may have a recipe for an American backed effort to remove Musharraf from power.

To those of you gasping at the thought, just take into account the fact that Negroponte met with Gen. Kayani twice during his visit, which according to many indicates American support for the general. If Musharraf goes, willingly or unwillingly, there’s atleast a fall back option. Kayani is a known Musharraf loyalist and unlikely to engage in any intrigues, but power does have its allure.

Interim Government Announced
The other big news of the week centered around Pres. Musharraf’s appointment of Senate Chairman Mohammadmian Soomro as caretaker prime minister along with the rest of his cabinet that will form the interim government.

Sources had reported over a week ago that Soomro would be appointed interim prime minister but I questioned the veracity of the news and did not report it. After all, Soomro is a known Musharraf loyalist and PML(Q) party member; a caretaker prime minister would need to be neutral for national elections to have any semblance of legitimacy. Surprisingly, not only was Soomro included in the interim government, but so were a whole host of vocal Musharraf supporters.

Musharraf, it appears, was not about to take any chances by having an interim government create a sticky situation for him or voice any opposition to him.

Some eyebrows were raised with the inclusion of Salman Taseer in the interim government given his prior links to the PPP. Taseer is the business magnate behind WorldCall and the Daily Times among other major business ventures. Sources insist that there is no signfiicance, however, Taseer’s involvement and Bhutto’s relative freedom vis-a-vis other opposition leaders may imply that some sort of accomodation is still possible between Musharraf and the PPP.

Skyguard Delivery Halted
On Wednesday, Switzerland indefinitely halted the delivery of Skyguard air defense batteries to Pakistan due to the on-going situation in Pakistan. Intended for the Pakistan Army, the 21 vehicle mounted anti-aircraft systems were excess inventory from the Swiss armed forces. In addition to the Skyguard units already owned and operated by the Pakistan Army, six batteries had already been delivered from the most recent purchase.

The prevention of delivery will not significantly damage Pakistan’s air defense capabilities, but it does raise fears that other left-leaning government may do the same for more vital defense equipment. One prime example is Sweden, with whom Pakistan recently signed a multi-billion dollar deal to purchase seven Erieye Airborne Warning and Control Systems (AWACS).

The Swiss will ultimately relent, however, the damage has been done to their future prospects of arms sales to Pakistan. Pakistan will likely turn to more reliable partners, such as France and China, for purchases and co-development of more advanced air defense systems. The same happened after the United States’ continual embargo of F-16’s that had been paid for by Pakistan; Pakistan, in conjunction with China, ended up developing and producing the JF-17 Thunder, a plane arguably better than earlier block F-16’s.

US-Pakistani Relations
Many out there are declaring their own emergency for the state of US-Pakistani relations. The fact of the matter is that despite the increasing criticism emerging from the White House, relations between the two countries remain strong. President Bush may have touted his recent phone call to Musharraf demanding that he step down as army chief and hold elections, but the reality is that Musharraf had already committed to both, as my sources had stated. That’s why Bush was able to make the demands he did, he knew that Musharraf already intended on doing what he’s asking.

The bigger news may be that despite repeated denials, the Bush administration knew that emergency rule was coming in Pakistan. High-level sources have reported that the Bush administration, specifically Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte, had been informed days in advance of the decision.

Though Musharraf’s relationship with the Bush administration is strong, sources are also indicating that the establishment fears fall-out from the US Congress, the American media and think tanks. This was already evidenced by Musharraf’s recent calls to members of Congress, attempting to allay concerns and prevent a halt in the flow of financial aid to Pakistan.

Emergency Rule’s Financial Impact
When markets opened the Monday after the declaration of emergency, the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) plummeted 5 percent, experiencing its worst single-day decline in the exchange’s history. Though the news of emergency rule and the resultant stock market plunge may be worrying for investors and Pakistanis alike, they should rest assured that the current volatility is only a short term phenomenon.

(courtesy of the Wall Street Journal Online)

The primary concern of both foreign and Pakistani investors is whether the fiscal and monetary policies of the current government will continue down the road. We witnessed this when the Supreme Court declared Musharraf’s presidential candidacy valid (the first time around) and as a result, the KSE skyrocketed the following day. After all, it’s been Musharraf’s policies over the course of the past 8 years that have generated Pakistan’s immense economic growth; last year alone Pakistan attracted nearly $8 billion in foreign investment, no small accomplishment.

What investors must further realize is that even if Musharraf is forced to step down, his economic policies won’t go with him.

The army is at the center of the Pakistani state and will be involved in the country’s governance for decades to come if not in perpetuity. Its role as the guarantor of the Pakistani state has now expanded to include the economy and for good reason. It became painfully aware to the Pakistani military that a strong economy was needed to fund its war machine, as sanctions and economic weakness set the country’s defense acquisition programs back years if not decades. But most importantly, the Pakistani military, and in particular the army, has massive business concerns across the country. To keep Army Inc. profitable, the health of the economy must remain strong.

That is why investors shouldn’t fret when it comes to Pakistan and current economic policies – they’re not going anywhere.

The Army’s Cohesion and Pakistan’s Wild West
Several times now, rumors have arisen suggesting Musharraf has been placed under house arrest. Likely spread by the opposition, the rumors fly in the face of what can be expected of the Pakistan Army.

With the exception of the Rawalpindi Conspiracy in 1951, there have never been any incidents of open insubordination within the Pakistan Army. If the situation becomes untenable for Musharraf and the army’s popularity diminishes as a result, the army as an institution will quietly ask Musharraf to step down. We’ve also stated in the past that the current Vice Chief of Army Staff (VCOAS) and successor to Musharraf, Gen. Ashfaq Kayani, is a thoroughly professional soldier who not only respects the chain of command but is also a Musharraf loyalist.

What does the army think about the emergency though? Sources have indicated to us that the army remains unified and the response to the emergency has been relatively positive. On the other hand, sources have also stated that there is resentment within the army regarding operations in Pakistan’s northwest, particularly Swat, with many in the army stating that they do not want to fight fellow Pakistanis. This may be why despite the declaration of emergency, we haven’t seen immediate action in Swat as the army internally debates a course of action. The situation is worsening though. Dawn has reported that a third major town in Swat recently fell to Islamist forces loyal to Maulana Fazlullah.

Humorous Anecdote: Many are aware that former ISI chief, Gen. Hameed Gul had been arrested when the emergency was first declared. Many of you however, may not know what he was up to when he was arrested. Much to my amusement, very close relatives of his informed me that the wily 71 year-old was on his way with flowers and cake for the now-deposed Supreme Court justices, who had just struck down the PCO. He is currently in jail, detained for 30-days.

Download audio file (wabc-interview-20071104-pakintel.mp3)
(Download file)

John’s show appears on Sundays, WABC 770AM in New York from 7-10pm EST (webcast), and KFI 640AM in Los Angeles from 7-10pm PST (webcast).

• The constitution is suspended.
• Justice Abdul Hameed Dogar replaced Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry.
• Provincial and federal assemblies in tact.
• Shaukat Aziz: General Elections may be delayed (for up to one year).
• Judges across the country have been sworn in under the PCO.
• Opp. leaders arrested (e.g. Atizaz Ahsin, Javed Hashmi, Imran Khan, and Asma Jehangir).
• Benazir Bhutto has stated that she is willing to work with Musharraf.
• Private news outlets are now under strict operating guidelines.
• The country remains relatively calm.

Intel Forecasts Validated
Last week, we had reported that a major decision would be made on November 1st relating to the Musharraf government. Both our sources and Dawn are now reporting that the decision to declare a state of emergency was made on November 1st. Back in September, we had also stated that there moves were afoot by the government to force then-Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry’s resignation and that he would be out of office in a month; a month and a half later, Chaudhry finds himself out of a job.

What’s next?
As of yesterday, sources are reporting that the state of emergency will be short lived and that Musharraf will remove his uniform. If this is going to be Musharraf’s strategy, it’s a wise one. Keeping emergency rule short and removing his uniform shortly thereafter, will dampen opposition to him and preempt the organization of a large-scale protest movement that he will not be able to contain. He will also have accomplished his goal of removing one of the biggest thorns in his side: f0rmer Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry.

As of now, the opposition is in disarray with much of its leadership and nearly 500 activitsts already detained. Though talk of emergency rule had reached a fever pitch the day before, no one believed Musharraf would follow through thinking that move would be political suicide. Interestingly, the public for the most part has been quiet. But even if Musharraf is able to ride this out and successfully transition back to democracy as a civilian president, we do not foresee him completing his second 5-year term.

In the coming days, there may be full-on military activity in Pakistan’s northwest, specifically Swat and North Waziristan. Militants in the area may already be expecting this and are likely looking to come to an accord with the government. This was exhibited with the release today of the remaining 250 Pakistan Army troops that had been captured in late August. According to our sources, Pakistan currently has over 100,000 troops in the northwest. In addition to two heavy infantry divisions, two more infantry divisions have been moved in to the region with the intention of retaking each tribal agency/provincial district one at a time.

International Reaction
International reaction has almost universally been one of “disappointment” and “concern.” In reality however, these public statements are just lip service. For countries whose opinion actually matters for Pakistan — namely the United States and China — the primary concern was and still is the war on terror.

The United States. The White House termed Musharraf’s move as “disappointing” calling for him to remove his uniform and hold elections in January. Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice echoed similar sentiments calling for calm and a swift return to constitutional order. She also said that financial assistance to Pakistan would be reviewed. To retierate, these are all face saving statements for consumption by the domestic US audience and international community. The Bush administration cannot be seen as supporting anti-democratic moves. It should also be remembered that the Vice President’s office runs all Pakistan-related foreign policy, not the State Department.

However, the most noteworthy and underreported statement came from the Pentagon stating that emergency rule would not effect US military support for Pakistan. Behind closed doors, all that matters for the Bush administration and other Western governments is that the war on terror continue full force and the Pentagon statement highlighted that.

China. China is Pakistan’s closest ally and largest benefactor, bar none. China has been mum over the last few months when its come to the state of affairs in Pakistan in line with their policy of domestic non-interference. After yesterday’s imposition of emergency rule, the Chinese came out and stated that they were “concerned,” but that the Pakistani government and people were capable of solving their own problems. So long as the government in Islamabad enacts policies that will not destabilize the region or specifically China’s own troubled Xinjiang province, the Chinese will continue to support Pakistan and in this case, Musharraf.

Musharraf’s Address: “Pakistan First”
IB readers can view Musharraf’s nearly hour long address to the nation last night below as well as in our newly added media section. Most of the address is in Urdu but beginning at 36:30, he speaks briefly in English for his “friends in the West.” To quickly summarize, Musharraf criticized the Supreme Court’s “judicial activisim” saying that it impeded on the government’s ability to prosecute the war on terror and manage the economy. He also went on to say that terrorists had become too emboldened and that the government needed to be able to take swift action against them; thus he had taken this action for emergency rule.

Resources

• Text of the Proclamation of Emergency
• Text of the Provisional Constitutional Order (PCO)
• Text of Musharraf’s first PCO in October 1999
• Text of the former Supreme Court Order Voiding the PCO

President Musharraf is currently addressing the country on national television in English. Stating that the country is at a dangerous juncture. Speaking in English so the world can hear. More to come. (Updated via Blackberry, 3:52pm US EST/1:52am PST)

Dawn reports that Benazir Bhutto has returned to Karachi and was escorted home by police. The White House has termed the state of emergency as “disappointing.” (Updated via Blackberry, 2:58pm US EST/12:58am PST)

Confirmed: Musharraf is not under house arrest, is still definitely in the driver’s seat. Pakistan is being described as in a state of “emergency plus,” somewhere between martial law and a state of emergency. (Updated via Blackberry, 2:22pm US EST/12:22am PST)

[Editor's Note: I will be stepping away from my computer, will attempt to keep IB readers continually updated via my Blackberry. 12:35pm US EST/10:53pm PST]

Benazir Bhutto has reportedly stepped off the plane in Dubai and will not be returning to Pakistan so soon. Perhaps fearing arrest? Justice Abdul Hameed Dogar (pictured right) has now been sworn in as Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of Pakistan, under the PCO. (Updated 12:00pm US EST/10:00pm PST)

Benazir Bhutto is supposedly at Dubai Int’l Airport or already en route to Karachi. (Updated 11:53am US EST/8:53pm PST)

Thoughts. This is essentially martial law. The issue was ordered from the COAS to avoid the needed approval from parliament. There is also this rumor that Musharraf is under house arrest, and even if it’s not true, I don’t see Musharraf surviving this. I don’t forsee a large scale protest campaign against Musharraf until the confusion is settled and there is an accurate picture of the ground reality. Though speculation reached its peak yesterday over the declaration of a state of emergency, no one really expected Musharraf to follow through; that’s why I believe we’re going to see an opposition that is potentially in disarray. I also find it incredibly convenient that Benazir was out of the country while this all happened. It’s a little peculiar that she would leave the country so soon after staging such a large come back. (Updated 11:41am US EST/8:41pm PST)

UNCONFIRMED RUMOR: Some sources are now reporting the that Pres. Musharraf is under house arrest and that Vice Chief of Army Staff (VCOAS) General Ashfaq Kayani has taken control of the Army and thereby the country. This would explain why all announcements re: the state of emergency have simply stated that they were by order of the “Chief of Army Staff,” with Pres. Musharraf’s name ommitted. I repeat, this just a rumor. I have other sources who claim to have just spoken with Musharraf refuting the rumor. (Updated 11:15am US EST/8:15pm PST)

Justices from the Lahore High Court have been summoned to the Governor House to supposedly take oath under the PCO. Earlier, the Karachi High Court justices had been summoned to Sindh’s Governor House. (Updated 11:09am US EST/8:09pm PST)

The Supreme Court’s decision against the PCO orders the COAS, all Corps Commanders and civil/military officials from carrying out the PCO. It states that any future change in the composition of the Supreme Court bench will be illegal and that no judges may take oath under the PCO. (Updated 10:16am US EST/7:16pm PST)

A 7-member bench of the Supreme Court, headed by the Chief Justice, has declared the PCO void. This has set the stage for a full on confrontation between Musharraf and Iftikhar Chaudhry. According to legal experts, the government cannot pass a PCO during a state of emergency under Article 232 of the constitution. President of the Supreme Court Bar Association, Aitzaz Ahsan, has been arrested from his home. He was a lawyer for Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry. (Updated 9:53am US EST/6:53pm PST)

Multiple justices have now arrived at the Supreme Court; they include Justices Rana Bhagwandas, Javed Iqbal, Abdul Hameed Dogar, Faqir Khokar, Muhammad Abbasi, Shakirullah Jan, and Ghulam Rabbani. A heavy paramilitary presence including Pakistan Rangers is reported in Islamabad. Heavy security exists in front of facilities belonging to Radio Pakistan, PTV, and the Prime Minister. (Updated 9:36am US EST/6:36pm PST)

Cable transmissions of all news outlets, with the exception of the official Pakistan Television (PTV), have been shut down. Musharraf is expected to address the nation tonight. (Updated 9:36am US EST/6:36pm PST)

The Chief Justice of Pakistan is reportedly now in his chambers with two other senior judges — Justice Abdul Hameed Dogar and another unnamed judge. News outlets are speculating that Justice Dogar will be the new CJP. Mobile phones in Islamabad are being jammed. (Updated 9:18am US EST/6:18pm PST)

Yesterday, sources of mine were reporting that the declaration of a state of emergency of Pakistan was imminent — some were saying that the decision had been made as early 3 days ago. This would fall in line with what sources had indicated to me earlier, that an important decision would be made around November 1st, rather than the 15th.

Sources are further reporting that the state of emergency will be short lived. Elections will still be held and Musharraf will remove his uniform.

Lahore residents had reported disruption of their TV service earlier, leading many to think that a state of emergency was already in effect. Upon further investigation, it was learnt that telephone calls had been made to mainstream media outlets in Pakistan ordering an end to transmission. As of now however, TV is still available. (Updated 9:01am US EST/6:01pm PST)