What’s the Rush, Mr. Zardari?
So why the sudden anxiousness on Zardari’s part to move negotiations forward with Sharif and impeach Musharraf? There are two, contrasting explanations. The first is desperation. After his failed attempt to gain control of the ISI as well as ISI efforts to undermine his government (for the purposes of maintaining a political stalemate), Zardari is now attempting to go after Musharraf. President Musharraf still represents the military’s institutional foothold in politics. The second explanation could be that Zardari has received US approval and backing for his actions after potentially convincing the current administration that Musharraf is what stands in the way of effective anti-Taliban operations in Pakistan. The second explanation is less likely however, as it was the current government that immediately and repeatedly sought to negotiate with the “Pakistani Taliban” from a position of weakness.

Regardless of his reasons, Zardari faces a major hurdle – the Army. Despite stepping down as Army Chief, Insider Brief sources report that the Pakistan Army remains very loyal to the President and is willing to go to bat for his political survivial, especially against the likes of Zardari. This brings us to the crux of this post.

The Coming Storm
The weight of recent events, shifting attitudes, and intense internal and external pressure on Pakistan are such that things can no longer continue as they have been. From our perspective at the Insider Brief, something has to give and it will undoubtedly be in the form of radical, tumultuous change in the near-to-medium term. Consider the following:

• The present civilian government (read: Zardari and co.) has picked a needless fight with the Army over the ISI and lost. It is yet again picking a needless fight against President Musharraf; a fight that will ultimately lead to another confrontation with a pro-Musharraf military.
• Insider Brief sources let slip that if things continue on their current trajectory, the military may be forced to (reluctantly) re-take the driver’s seat.
• Insider Brief sources also report that discontent is growing within the Army against its chief, Gen. Ashfaq Kayani. He is increasingly being perceived as an American lackey from within the ranks.
• Pakistan’s government and military have been unable to effectively roll back a raging Taliban-led insurgency in its northwest. This is moving beyond a crisis of governance into a crisis of existence.
• US and US-allied forces are preparing to conduct larger, more overt military action in Pakistan and have already openly admitted to conducting air strikes on Pakistani territory.
• The CIA publicly identified the ISI as having a hand in the recent bombing of the Indian Embassy in Kabul.
• Sources further indicate that there is a common perception within the Pakistani military that the US is colluding with the Indians to foment trouble in Balochistan and Pakistan’s northwest.
• Intermittent hostilities have broken out between India and Pakistan on the Line of Control in Kashmir after 5 years of peace.
• Public discontent is being compounded by a slowing economy and food and oil inflation.

Pretty picture, right? It depicts how unsustainable the current state of affairs is.

Ultimately, we’re witnessing a web of competing interests intersect and conflict in a big way. At the center of it all is the Pakistani military establishment. It currently finds itself in conflict with the US, India, the Pakistani civilian government, insurgents and perhaps even itself. This is no fault of the military’s — this merely reflects the reality that the military is at the center of the Pakistani state. It is the only institution that is capable of holding Pakistan together as the country tears itself apart.

It would behoove the present elected government to work in lockstep with the military, instead of engaging it and other parties in petty power struggles. The reinstatement of sacked judges or Musharraf’s impeachment will not save Pakistan. That will instead be determined by how Pakistanis and their leaders come together as a nation.

Zardari’s Miscalculation
It’s an open secret that Benazir Bhutto’s widower, Asif Ali Zardari, calls the shots in the current government, not Gilani. According to Insider Brief sources, the decision to place the ISI under the Interior Ministry and thereby Interior Minister Rehman Malik, was Zardari’s decision. Sources further state that Zardari miscalculated and did not anticipate the response the decision received. Like a kid with a stick, he prodded too hard only to awaken a nest of (khaki) hornets.

Kayani Intervenes
In our last post, we indicated that Pakistan’s Army Chief, Gen. Ashfaq Kayani, would have to respond forcefully to the government’s decision so as not to appear weak, but also, to defend his turf; the ISI for all practical purposes, answers to the Chief of Army Staff. Insider Brief sources report that the night of the announcement, Kayani personally intervened and ensured that the decision was reversed.

Aftermath
The government’s initial decision should not be contextualized within the framework of US-Pakistani relations. This was not about “reining” in Pakistani intelligence at the behest of the Americans. This was an attempt by Zardari to halt ISI activity against the PPP government in Punjab and gain full control of what is essentially Pakistan’s most powerful “policy” tool. He overplayed his hand against what he perceived was a discredited and demoralized military. Now, he will likely have to face the consequences of increased hostility from the establishment and a possible intensification of the campaign to unseat his government.

With each passing day, a once golden opportunity to turn things around for Pakistan is slipping from the grasp of the Pakistan People’s Party. There’s still time to take a stand, make some bold policy decisions and reverse the atrophy that is nibbling away at the current government. Pakistan can no longer afford more of the same.

The decision is one that is bold, unprecedented and controversial. The ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence) has traditionally fallen under the purview of the military, with Army officers rotating through the agency for two year stints. Many have labeled the ISI as a “state within a state” for its pervasiveness and ability to influence state matters with near complete autonomy. Today’s decision by Gilani and his cabinet marks a major move by the nascent civilian government in the long standing struggle by Pakistan’s civilian/political forces to bring the military establishment under their control. This news also likely corroborates our last post as the move may be in response to military/intelligence discussions over the ouster of his PPP government.

The military will not accept the cabinet decision lying down. Insider Brief sources further report that many ranking military officials have indicated that there will be a coup if Gilani does not back down from his decision. Such a move would not be unprecedented. Many may remember that the last time a civilian government attempted to meddle in military affairs, it ultimately resulted in the coup that brought President Musharraf to power. Much of the anger in the military is being directed towards Interior Minister Rehman Malik, who is widely believed by Pakistan’s intelligence community to have had some affiliation with the CIA. In the eyes of Pakistan intelligence, Malik’s access may severely compromise ISI operational security.

The government’s move has also placed Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff (COAS), Gen. Ashfaq Kayani, in an awkward position. Since his appointment to COAS, he has been an advocate of extricating the military from overt interference in government affairs and has made a very public effort to support the new government. As opposed to engaging Kayani in a process to alter the balance of power between Rawalpindi and Islamabad, Gilani’s government has acted brashly and resultantly forced Kayani into a corner. If Kayani does not respond forcefully, he will appear weak and lose credibility with his subordinates. The Army Chief will also likely want to respond — after all, the ISI was under his command.

If there is a coup, it will likely be a politically engineered, “soft coup.” This would include the possibility of President Musharraf dismissing the government through powers granted to him in the constitution. An overt military coup is unlikely as it would trigger sanctions, isolate Pakistan internationally and result in a further weakening of already shaky relationship.

The PPP has taken a risky gamble — Prime Minister Gilani may return to Pakistan only to find himself out of a job.

The replaced brigadiers were removed from their posts prematurely; Zaheer was due to retire in July with Masood due to retire in September. Sources indicate that both men were close associates of the recenty replaced and highly disliked, Major General Nadeem Ejaz, former Director General of Military Intelligence (DGMI). Made with Gen. Ashfaq Kayani’s approval, the removal of Nadeem Ejaz’s associates represents a continued decline in influence for President Pervez Musharraf within the military. As DGMI, Ejaz was instrumental in many of Musharraf’s policy decisions and was a close advisor.

What may be of greater interest is the man whom Brig. Tiwana is replacing, Brig. Masood, is said by sources to have had excellent ties with the MQM and PPP. If true, it highlights the continued drive by Gen. Kayani to disentangle the Pakistan Army and its intelligence apparatus from politics after over 60 years of national involvement. After all, cordial relations with political parties should have no bearing on the selection of a regional MI commander.

Intel Validation
At the end of February, we reported that Gen. Kayani was looking to replace the then-DGMI, Maj. Gen. Nadeem Ejaz. We listed several candidates, one of whom was Major General Muhammad Asif, Pakistan’s former defense attache to Moscow. On April 4th, The News International reported that Maj. Gen. Asif was appointed DGMI.

Editor’s Note: For those of you wondering — I’m back.

• Maj. Gen. Muhammad Asif – Formerly Pakistan’s Defense Attache in Moscow
• Maj. Gen. Javed Iqbal – Presently posted in Bahawalpur
• Maj. Gen. Raheel Sharif – Formerly General Officer Commanding (GOC) Lahore; presently posted in Lahore

Kayani intends to curtail the powers of the DGMI with the hope that the next general to occupy the position will focus on what his title implies — military intelligence. This should bode well for the progress of the war on terror and settling the unrest in Pakistan’s northwest.

FOOTNOTES:

• President Pervez Musharraf had an op-ed published in the Washington Post on February 22nd. Individuals familiar with the op-ed report that it had initially been submitted to the New York Times for publication but was rejected by paper. The Washington Post was the President’s second choice.
• The News International reported that the former head of the ISI’s political cell, Maj. Gen. (retd.) Ehtesham Zamir, acknowledged his role in rigging the 2002 elections that brought Musharraf’s civilian allies to power. Zamir claims that the orders to rig the election came from Musharraf himself. The timing of the announcement places further pressure on an already beseiged Musharraf who now faces an empowered opposition after last week’s parliamentary elections. Interestingly enough, sources close to Zamir report that he is a very close friend of Aitzaz Ahsan. Coincidence? I think not.

(Editor’s Note: We’ve received numerous requests for an analysis on the post-election scenario; we hope to have one up for Insider Brief readers by the end of this week.)

Our sources have confirmed that Gen. Kayani will be replacing Major General Nadeem Ejaz, the Director General of Military Intelligence (DGMI), after the completion of parliamentary elections. Sources cite that Kayani has been presented with an opportune time to rid himself of Nadeem Ejaz as Ejaz is not only unpopular among the Army’s top brass but also because his 3-year tenure as DGMI is nearing an end. Maj. Gen. Ejaz is well known for the high profile role he played in the ouster of former Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry.

Insider Brief sources go on to further state that Gen. Kayani also intends on clipping the wings of the office of the Director General of Military Intelligence, giving the next general less responsibility and power than in the past.

Replacing Nadeem Ejaz will significantly reduce President Musharraf’s influence in the army and Pakistan’s intelligence apparatus. It will also go a long way in furthering Gen. Kayani’s process of removing the military from national politics and re-directing its efforts towards solely national defense.

Kayani’s task is a daunting one as he essentially seeks to re-engineer the Army’s culture which has been shaped by over 60 years of interference in the country’s governance and national affairs. It will be interesting to see how he balances his goals with the outcome and consequences of today’s parliamentary elections. The Army Chief may be forced to step into the fray and play referee if Pakistan’s political leaders — Musharraf included — get out of hand; an act that would highlight not only the difficulty of his objective but also what we stated in our last post: that for the for the near-to-medium term, the Pakistan Army will continue to have a role to play as the guarantor of the Pakistani state.

ELECTION FOOTNOTES:

• Voting in Pakistan’s parliamentary elections has come to an end. Ballot counting has now begun.
• Election turnout was comparatively low due to fear of violence, which killed at least 9 people today in bombings and shootings.
• Based on results that have started trickling in, projected winners for 3 of the provinces currently stand at:
  • Punjab: PML(N), PPP
  • Sindh: PPP, MQM
  • NWFP: ANP, PML(N) [in Hazara populated districts]
• With projections shaping up the way they are, Pakistan looks to be headed towards a broad coalition government which is the best Musharraf can hope for. In a coalition, the national government will likely be locked in gridlock allowing Musharraf to carry on with his policies unchecked. It will also allow his civilian allies — the PML(Q) — to hold some degree of influence. We’ve been projecting this outcome since October.

In addition to military action, sources also report that a major facet of the newfound campaign involves choking off Baitullah’s sources of funding and logistics. This will be done in part by assailing the business interests of the Mehsud tribe from which Baitullah hails. By pursuing the tribe’s assets and businesses, primarily focused in more developed areas such as Karachi, Tank, and Dera Ismail, the Army seeks to indirectly pressure the tribe and show them how self destructive it can be supporting Baitullah.

If history has taught us anything about the Pushtun tribes it’s this: money talks. The Army’s strategy should not only prove effective but also go a long way in driving a wedge between jihadist militants and the tribes that support them. As extremist Islam fast becomes the primary vehicle of Pushtun nationalism in Pakistan, making this wedge permanent is a vital objective in ensuring Pakistan’s territorial integrity.

Pakistani intelligence is also increasingly wary of Indian collusion with Afghan intelligence in fomenting instability along Pakistan’s borders. They consistently point to the presence of six Indian consulates in Afghanistan, four of which are not only close to the Afghan-Pakistan “border” and are in areas where few if any Indians reside. Recent news of resurgent militant Sikh activity in India after years of quiet may be warning shots from Pakistan that it too, can return the favor.

… AND RETREATS.
Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff, Gen. Ashfaq Kayani, is living up to his reputation as a professional soldier. Sources state that the general has initiated the process of making sweeping changes in organization in the Army. On top of having re-instituted the role of Director General of Planning, the head of what amounts to the Army’s think tank, Kayani is systematically withdrawing the Army from the political arena.Told to us by sources months ago, Gen. Kayani’s directive that all officers abstain from interfering in politics under the threat of court martial has become widely reported. Now, sources have stated that the Army Chief has also directed Military Intelligence (MI) to desist from interfering in politics at all levels.

The big question is now this: when’s the ISI’s turn?

ELECTION ENDNOTES:

1. A senior Pakistani official recently conveyed to the Insider Brief how deeply distraught they were at the current state of affairs in Pakistan and at how President Pervez Musharraf was single mindedly focused on ensuring a pliant parliament to maintain his hold on power. Another senior official from within the ranks of the military stated that it was only a matter of “when, not if,” Gen. Ashfaq Kayani withdrew his support for President Musharraf.
2. Sources have reported that Pakistan People’s Party members informed President Musharraf that the will produced by Asif Zardari was indeed fake and that party officials kept quiet for the sake of capturing the “sympathy” vote in February’s upcoming parliamentary elections. They intend on seeking Zardari’s ouster after elections.
3. Media outlets have widely reported the ongoing dialogue between President Musharraf and Shahbaz Sharif, Nawaz Sharif’s chief lieutenant and younger brother, through common acquaintance Brigadier (retired) Niaz Ahmed. Sources close to Ahmed state that parlays between Musharraf and the younger Sharif are over the creation of an alliance to prevent the rise of the PPP in upcoming elections and that the two will be meeting in Ahmed’s home in London. They also state that there is a strong possibility that a deal has been struck between the two seemingly antagonistic forces. If true, it marks a return to “normalcy” in Pakistan’s constellation of forces: the establishment allied with its usual proxy, the Pakistan Muslim League, against the anti-establishment Pakistan People’s Party.

The News: Reuters
With Gen. Ashfaq Kayani’s ascendancy to the role of Chief of Army Staff (COAS), Reuters published an article on Nov. 28th titled, “Five Facts on Pakistan’s New Army Chief – Kayani,” in which they cited the Insider Brief.

On the Web: Watandost
In his latest blog post entitled, “Three New Excellent Blogs on Pakistan,” Hassan Abbas of Watandost recommended three Pakistan-focused blogs to his readers, one of which happened to be the Insider Brief. A published author and former Pakistani government official, Abbas is also a Research Fellow at the Belfer Center’s Project on Managing the Atom and International Security Program. His recognition, like that of the PCR Project, means a lot to us.

On the Radio: The John Batchelor Show
Last night, I appeared on the John Batchelor Show to discuss the rise of Gen. Ashfaq Kayani and President Musharraf’s future. You can listen to my conversation with John by using the player below.

Download audio file (wabc-interview-20071202-pakintel.mp3)
(Download file)

John’s show airs on Sundays, WABC 770AM in New York from 7-10pm EST (webcast), and KFI 640AM in Los Angeles from 7-10pm PST (webcast).

In short: there’s a heck of a lot going on.

When the situation is this fluid, it creates an environment rife with speculation. At the center of all the speculation has been President Musharraf’s relationship with General Kayani. We’d like to clear the air.

Army Reshuffle in March 2008
The Asia Times Online reported that Gen. Ashfaq Kayani was engaging in a major reshuffle of the Pakistan Army, consolidating his hold on power and removing Musharraf loyalists. Many in the news media picked up on this article, reported it and interpreted it as movement by Kayani against Musharraf. However almost immediately after the news came out, DG ISPR Maj. Gen. Waheed Arshad categorically stated that it was false.

One of the first things worth noting is that the Asia Times Online has never been a reliable source of news. Always engaging in some form of sensationalism, its Pakistan correspondent, Syed Saleem Shahzad, has consistently been wrong over the course of the past few years. It is absolutely confounding that respectable news outlets and private intelligence organizations (e.g. Stratfor — whom I have deep respect for, having worked with them in one way or another since 1999) continue to be duped by the Asia Times Online.

That being said, sources report that there is a scheduled reshuffle expected in March 2008 within the army. This reshuffle will likely take into account Pakistan’s post-election scenario, the status of the Musharraf presidency and the progress of military operations in the country’s northwest. In terms of what to expect for a reshuffle of the army’s mid-level officer corps, sources are reporting that Gen. Kayani is looking to replace the ISI provincial heads (Brigadiers) for Sindh and NWFP. Apparently they have been causing some big headaches and potentially may have Islamist leanings.

The Loyalty Question: the Army and Kayani
As speculation has implied, the big question is whether Kayani will stay loyal to Musharraf. We believe he will — for now. Through discussions with our sources, there appears to be a consensus that Gen. Kayani does not have political aspirations of his own. The consensus among our sources also reveals that for the time being, the current grouping of corps commanders remains loyal to Musharraf as well.

Kayani’s decision thus far to not appoint a Vice or Deputy Chief of Army Staff validates the notion that he intends on remaining apolitical. As we’ve stated in the past, a VCOAS/DCOAS is really only appointed when the Chief of Army Staff (COAS) is busy muddling in the country’s governance to the extent that he cannot effectively oversee the army’s day-to-day affairs. (Editor’s Note: VCOAS and DCOAS are the same position, the difference is in the number of stars. A VCOAS is a full 4-star general, while a DCOAS is a full 3-star general.)

So what could sway Kayani’s support away from Musharraf? The two most likely scenarios in which Kayani would withdraw support for Musharraf would involve either:

1. The US government determining that Musharraf is a liability to the war on terror.
2. Kayani determining that Musharraf’s presence in the presidency is either hurting the army’s image or counterproductive towards his goal of transitioning the army out of national affairs.

And though many in Pakistan seek to have the army completely extricate itself from the affairs of governance, at present, it’s not an entirely realistic goal. We argued recently that Musharraf stepping down from the army does not mark a paradigm shift. The Pakistan Army is likely to have a role in governing Pakistan for the near-to-medium term, something that we believe is not sustainable for the army or the nation in the long run. A consensus on a vision for the country’s future must be developed among all of Pakistan’s major power brokers so that the armed forces may finally take on their rightful role as the defenders of Pakistan, not its governors.

Outlook on Musharraf’s Future
We believe that as long as President Musharraf retains the support of Gen. Kayani, he will continue to hold the upper hand on the political scene as the country transitions back to democracy. After all, President Musharraf has no popular support base on which to rely. His constituency was and is the army. Without its support, he’s dead in the water. Working in coordination, Musharraf and Kayani have the potential to be a major force in this transition, setting the agenda for the country’s future. Five years is a long time however, and a lot can happen before then. We have a feeling that regardless of how much support President Musharraf receives from the army, he won’t be completing his second term as president.

As part of our continued commitment to bringing our readers exclusive content and multimedia, we have video footage of the retreat ceremony below.

According to sources, Kayani will not be appointing a deputy within the army (read: Vice Chief of Army Staff). The role of VCOAS is not a standard one. In the past, it has been created when the military has been actively engaged in governing the nation, when the COAS could not focus all his energies on the army.

For those of you who are hungry for more information about Kayani, check out our profile of him from September, which includes more exclusive photos of the reclusive general (we even reveal his golf handicap): Gen. Kayani Profile.

Today’s Itinerary:

• 10:00am PST – Changeover Ceremony
• 11:30am PST – Corps Commander Conference
• 6:00pm PST – Retreat Ceremony
• 7:00pm PST – Farewell Dinner for Gen. Pervez Musharraf

Transition Continues as Planned
Effectively having dealt with former Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry, Musharraf’s transition appears to be continuing as planned. The newly revamped Supreme Court has paved the way for Musharraf’s second term as president and now that Nawaz Sharif has returned to Pakistan, the stage is set for the January parliamentary elections. The only remaining unresolved issue is the present state of emergency that is in effect which will likely go soon. Many IB readers will recall that our sources had stated back on November 3rd that Musharraf would remove his uniform, elections would be held, and that the emergency would be short lived.

Taking stock of the present situation — isn’t this what everyone wanted? A civilian Musharraf as president with elections being held in which all major parties are participating? Not to sound like a military regime apologist, the question begs to be asked: was Iftikhar Chaudhry acting in the greater good of the country by sparking a confrontation with President Musharraf? In attempting to push Musharraf out of the public realm entirely, instead of seeking a phased transition, can it be argued that Chaudhry can be blamed for the current state of emergency and curbs on the media?

We’ll leave that for our readers to answer.

A Paradigm in Twilight?
When Musharraf retires from the army this Wednesday, many will begin to question if this is the beginning of the end for the military’s involvement in government. The answer: not by a long shot. We had stated in a prior post that the army is at the center of the Pakistani state and that it will be involved in the country’s governance for decades to come if not in perpetuity. Whether this is right or wrong is not the question — it’s a ground reality.

Heard ad nauseam, the military is Pakistan’s single most organized, popular and powerful institution. It is the only grouping of Pakistan’s major stakeholders that can universally impose its will on the country and bring everyone else into line. As long as Pakistan’s ruling elites — the military, political parties, feudal lords, and business barons — remain at loggerheads with one another over the direction of the nation, the military will remain in the driver’s seat.

• The constitution is suspended.
• Justice Abdul Hameed Dogar replaced Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry.
• Provincial and federal assemblies in tact.
• Shaukat Aziz: General Elections may be delayed (for up to one year).
• Judges across the country have been sworn in under the PCO.
• Opp. leaders arrested (e.g. Atizaz Ahsin, Javed Hashmi, Imran Khan, and Asma Jehangir).
• Benazir Bhutto has stated that she is willing to work with Musharraf.
• Private news outlets are now under strict operating guidelines.
• The country remains relatively calm.

Intel Forecasts Validated
Last week, we had reported that a major decision would be made on November 1st relating to the Musharraf government. Both our sources and Dawn are now reporting that the decision to declare a state of emergency was made on November 1st. Back in September, we had also stated that there moves were afoot by the government to force then-Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry’s resignation and that he would be out of office in a month; a month and a half later, Chaudhry finds himself out of a job.

What’s next?
As of yesterday, sources are reporting that the state of emergency will be short lived and that Musharraf will remove his uniform. If this is going to be Musharraf’s strategy, it’s a wise one. Keeping emergency rule short and removing his uniform shortly thereafter, will dampen opposition to him and preempt the organization of a large-scale protest movement that he will not be able to contain. He will also have accomplished his goal of removing one of the biggest thorns in his side: f0rmer Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry.

As of now, the opposition is in disarray with much of its leadership and nearly 500 activitsts already detained. Though talk of emergency rule had reached a fever pitch the day before, no one believed Musharraf would follow through thinking that move would be political suicide. Interestingly, the public for the most part has been quiet. But even if Musharraf is able to ride this out and successfully transition back to democracy as a civilian president, we do not foresee him completing his second 5-year term.

In the coming days, there may be full-on military activity in Pakistan’s northwest, specifically Swat and North Waziristan. Militants in the area may already be expecting this and are likely looking to come to an accord with the government. This was exhibited with the release today of the remaining 250 Pakistan Army troops that had been captured in late August. According to our sources, Pakistan currently has over 100,000 troops in the northwest. In addition to two heavy infantry divisions, two more infantry divisions have been moved in to the region with the intention of retaking each tribal agency/provincial district one at a time.

International Reaction
International reaction has almost universally been one of “disappointment” and “concern.” In reality however, these public statements are just lip service. For countries whose opinion actually matters for Pakistan — namely the United States and China — the primary concern was and still is the war on terror.

The United States. The White House termed Musharraf’s move as “disappointing” calling for him to remove his uniform and hold elections in January. Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice echoed similar sentiments calling for calm and a swift return to constitutional order. She also said that financial assistance to Pakistan would be reviewed. To retierate, these are all face saving statements for consumption by the domestic US audience and international community. The Bush administration cannot be seen as supporting anti-democratic moves. It should also be remembered that the Vice President’s office runs all Pakistan-related foreign policy, not the State Department.

However, the most noteworthy and underreported statement came from the Pentagon stating that emergency rule would not effect US military support for Pakistan. Behind closed doors, all that matters for the Bush administration and other Western governments is that the war on terror continue full force and the Pentagon statement highlighted that.

China. China is Pakistan’s closest ally and largest benefactor, bar none. China has been mum over the last few months when its come to the state of affairs in Pakistan in line with their policy of domestic non-interference. After yesterday’s imposition of emergency rule, the Chinese came out and stated that they were “concerned,” but that the Pakistani government and people were capable of solving their own problems. So long as the government in Islamabad enacts policies that will not destabilize the region or specifically China’s own troubled Xinjiang province, the Chinese will continue to support Pakistan and in this case, Musharraf.

Musharraf’s Address: “Pakistan First”
IB readers can view Musharraf’s nearly hour long address to the nation last night below as well as in our newly added media section. Most of the address is in Urdu but beginning at 36:30, he speaks briefly in English for his “friends in the West.” To quickly summarize, Musharraf criticized the Supreme Court’s “judicial activisim” saying that it impeded on the government’s ability to prosecute the war on terror and manage the economy. He also went on to say that terrorists had become too emboldened and that the government needed to be able to take swift action against them; thus he had taken this action for emergency rule.

Resources

• Text of the Proclamation of Emergency
• Text of the Provisional Constitutional Order (PCO)
• Text of Musharraf’s first PCO in October 1999
• Text of the former Supreme Court Order Voiding the PCO

President Musharraf is currently addressing the country on national television in English. Stating that the country is at a dangerous juncture. Speaking in English so the world can hear. More to come. (Updated via Blackberry, 3:52pm US EST/1:52am PST)

Dawn reports that Benazir Bhutto has returned to Karachi and was escorted home by police. The White House has termed the state of emergency as “disappointing.” (Updated via Blackberry, 2:58pm US EST/12:58am PST)

Confirmed: Musharraf is not under house arrest, is still definitely in the driver’s seat. Pakistan is being described as in a state of “emergency plus,” somewhere between martial law and a state of emergency. (Updated via Blackberry, 2:22pm US EST/12:22am PST)

[Editor's Note: I will be stepping away from my computer, will attempt to keep IB readers continually updated via my Blackberry. 12:35pm US EST/10:53pm PST]

Benazir Bhutto has reportedly stepped off the plane in Dubai and will not be returning to Pakistan so soon. Perhaps fearing arrest? Justice Abdul Hameed Dogar (pictured right) has now been sworn in as Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of Pakistan, under the PCO. (Updated 12:00pm US EST/10:00pm PST)

Benazir Bhutto is supposedly at Dubai Int’l Airport or already en route to Karachi. (Updated 11:53am US EST/8:53pm PST)

Thoughts. This is essentially martial law. The issue was ordered from the COAS to avoid the needed approval from parliament. There is also this rumor that Musharraf is under house arrest, and even if it’s not true, I don’t see Musharraf surviving this. I don’t forsee a large scale protest campaign against Musharraf until the confusion is settled and there is an accurate picture of the ground reality. Though speculation reached its peak yesterday over the declaration of a state of emergency, no one really expected Musharraf to follow through; that’s why I believe we’re going to see an opposition that is potentially in disarray. I also find it incredibly convenient that Benazir was out of the country while this all happened. It’s a little peculiar that she would leave the country so soon after staging such a large come back. (Updated 11:41am US EST/8:41pm PST)

UNCONFIRMED RUMOR: Some sources are now reporting the that Pres. Musharraf is under house arrest and that Vice Chief of Army Staff (VCOAS) General Ashfaq Kayani has taken control of the Army and thereby the country. This would explain why all announcements re: the state of emergency have simply stated that they were by order of the “Chief of Army Staff,” with Pres. Musharraf’s name ommitted. I repeat, this just a rumor. I have other sources who claim to have just spoken with Musharraf refuting the rumor. (Updated 11:15am US EST/8:15pm PST)

Justices from the Lahore High Court have been summoned to the Governor House to supposedly take oath under the PCO. Earlier, the Karachi High Court justices had been summoned to Sindh’s Governor House. (Updated 11:09am US EST/8:09pm PST)

The Supreme Court’s decision against the PCO orders the COAS, all Corps Commanders and civil/military officials from carrying out the PCO. It states that any future change in the composition of the Supreme Court bench will be illegal and that no judges may take oath under the PCO. (Updated 10:16am US EST/7:16pm PST)

A 7-member bench of the Supreme Court, headed by the Chief Justice, has declared the PCO void. This has set the stage for a full on confrontation between Musharraf and Iftikhar Chaudhry. According to legal experts, the government cannot pass a PCO during a state of emergency under Article 232 of the constitution. President of the Supreme Court Bar Association, Aitzaz Ahsan, has been arrested from his home. He was a lawyer for Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry. (Updated 9:53am US EST/6:53pm PST)

Multiple justices have now arrived at the Supreme Court; they include Justices Rana Bhagwandas, Javed Iqbal, Abdul Hameed Dogar, Faqir Khokar, Muhammad Abbasi, Shakirullah Jan, and Ghulam Rabbani. A heavy paramilitary presence including Pakistan Rangers is reported in Islamabad. Heavy security exists in front of facilities belonging to Radio Pakistan, PTV, and the Prime Minister. (Updated 9:36am US EST/6:36pm PST)

Cable transmissions of all news outlets, with the exception of the official Pakistan Television (PTV), have been shut down. Musharraf is expected to address the nation tonight. (Updated 9:36am US EST/6:36pm PST)

The Chief Justice of Pakistan is reportedly now in his chambers with two other senior judges — Justice Abdul Hameed Dogar and another unnamed judge. News outlets are speculating that Justice Dogar will be the new CJP. Mobile phones in Islamabad are being jammed. (Updated 9:18am US EST/6:18pm PST)