Our sources have confirmed that Gen. Kayani will be replacing Major General Nadeem Ejaz, the Director General of Military Intelligence (DGMI), after the completion of parliamentary elections. Sources cite that Kayani has been presented with an opportune time to rid himself of Nadeem Ejaz as Ejaz is not only unpopular among the Army’s top brass but also because his 3-year tenure as DGMI is nearing an end. Maj. Gen. Ejaz is well known for the high profile role he played in the ouster of former Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry.

Insider Brief sources go on to further state that Gen. Kayani also intends on clipping the wings of the office of the Director General of Military Intelligence, giving the next general less responsibility and power than in the past.

Replacing Nadeem Ejaz will significantly reduce President Musharraf’s influence in the army and Pakistan’s intelligence apparatus. It will also go a long way in furthering Gen. Kayani’s process of removing the military from national politics and re-directing its efforts towards solely national defense.

Kayani’s task is a daunting one as he essentially seeks to re-engineer the Army’s culture which has been shaped by over 60 years of interference in the country’s governance and national affairs. It will be interesting to see how he balances his goals with the outcome and consequences of today’s parliamentary elections. The Army Chief may be forced to step into the fray and play referee if Pakistan’s political leaders — Musharraf included — get out of hand; an act that would highlight not only the difficulty of his objective but also what we stated in our last post: that for the for the near-to-medium term, the Pakistan Army will continue to have a role to play as the guarantor of the Pakistani state.

ELECTION FOOTNOTES:

• Voting in Pakistan’s parliamentary elections has come to an end. Ballot counting has now begun.
• Election turnout was comparatively low due to fear of violence, which killed at least 9 people today in bombings and shootings.
• Based on results that have started trickling in, projected winners for 3 of the provinces currently stand at:
  • Punjab: PML(N), PPP
  • Sindh: PPP, MQM
  • NWFP: ANP, PML(N) [in Hazara populated districts]
• With projections shaping up the way they are, Pakistan looks to be headed towards a broad coalition government which is the best Musharraf can hope for. In a coalition, the national government will likely be locked in gridlock allowing Musharraf to carry on with his policies unchecked. It will also allow his civilian allies — the PML(Q) — to hold some degree of influence. We’ve been projecting this outcome since October.

Chaos and looting continue across the country. Police struggle to maintain control. (Updated: 11:47am US EST/9:47pm PST)

Bhutto reportedly had a bullet in the head and one in the neck. The shot to the head is being ruled as the immediate cause of death. Grisly. (Updated: 10:05am US EST/8:05pm PST)

Nawaz Sharif has arrived at the scene, consoling PPP party workers. (Updated: 9:42am US EST/7:42pm PST)

Cause of death was the bullet wound to the neck, was on oxygen for 12 minutes. Bullets were fired through the front of the vehicle. Driver tried to speed away when the bomb blast occurred. Sherry Rehman has survived and is okay. Naheed Khan reportedly in critical condition. (Updated: 9:38am US EST/7:38pm PST)

Asif Zardari, Bhutto’s husband, refuses to speak to the media. Leaves for Karachi. (Updated: 9:24am US EST/7:24 pm PST)

Chaos and violence has broken out in Lahore. Tires are being lit on fire. All stores closed. Ambulances everywhere. (Updated: 9:19am US EST/7:19pm PST)

Individuals in the establishment that I’ve spoken with believe that the Chaudhries of Gujrat were behind the attack. Speculation will likely continue, but be mindful that many of my contacts believed the Chaudhries would make attempts on Bhutto’s life before she arrived in Karachi months ago. (Updated: 9:07am US EST/7:07pm PST)

Official time of death was 6:16pm Pakistan Standard Time, Rawalpindi General Hospital. Chaos is breaking outin Rawalpindi. Roads shut down. More chaos likely. Potential reimposition of emergency rule? (Updated: 9:00am US EST/7:00pm PST)

Details are coming in of the attack. Two shots were fired before the explosion, one of which struck Bhutto in the neck. This was a very precise attack. Likely culprits? Jihadists. (Updated: 8:35am US EST/6:35pm PST)

It has now been confirmed that Benazir Bhutto is dead. She succumbed to her wounds in the operating room. May God rest her soul. God save Pakistan. (Updated 8:26am US EST/6:26pm PST)

Out with the New, In with the Old
Sources also report that President Musharraf has grown weary of the Chaudhry cousins (Parvez Elahi and Shujaat Hussain) and intends on bringing in the Sharif brothers (Nawaz and Shahbaz) to dilute their influence. I doubt Musharraf will entirely rid himself of the Chaudhries — he will need some civilian allies — but instead he will likely marginalize them to the point that they are forced to share power with the likes of Benazir Bhutto and the Sharifs. This is in line with our analysis from September stating that Musharraf wanted a diluted coalition government in place; it would shield him from criticism for being undemocratic, all the while allowing him to carry on his policies unchecked while coalition members would bicker among one another.

Resentment within the Army
We had reported earlier that there was resentment in the Pakistan Army over operations in Swat. Now, we are being told that there is broad resentment among the army’s mid-to-low ranking officers over Musharraf’s handling of Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif. They are particularly upset that Nawaz Sharif is being allowed to return, after they helped show him the door nearly a decade ago. The discontent over Musharraf’s policies has not spread to senior army leadership, which remains on board, likely understanding the compromises he needs to make in light of international (read: US) pressure. It also doesn’t hurt that they’re all hand picked Musharraf loyalists. Ultimately, this is bad news for Musharraf. The army is his constituency and power base. If his support continues to erode, he could soon find himself out of a job.

Intel Validation
We revealed exactly two weeks ago that the Bush administration, specifically Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte, had advance knowledge of President Musharraf’s plans of imposing a state of emergency in Pakistan. Today, the Wall Street Journal reported just that — that American diplomats had prior knowledge of the impending emergency.

The Countdown Begins
Musharraf stepping down from his post as Chief of Army Staff (COAS) would mark an interesting turn of events, especially in light of the recent attempt on Benazir Bhutto’s life and strife in the country’s border regions. One would have reasoned that given the level of instability, Musharraf would have dragged his feet on shedding his uniform, but instead, we’re potentially witnessing the opposite. He may step down as COAS to facilitate a Supreme Court verdict in favor of his presidential candidacy; though it’s unlikely that the Supreme Court will rule against Musharraf, lest it’s seeking to trigger a governmental crisis.

Musharraf’s expedited schedule can also be interpreted as a vote of confidence for Gen. Ashfaq Kayani, Musharraf’s successor in the army. Musharraf would be signalling that he trusts Kayani enough to run the army without fear of being ousted or betrayed, though many in the opposition have long been anticipating the day that Musharraf doffs his uniform as it has been his only source of power. If and when he does remove his uniform, Musharraf will rely more than ever on the loyalists he has strategically placed throughout the military and the government.

Shaukat Aziz to Remain Premier
Sources are also indicating that the powers-that-be intend for Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz to remain prime minister after general elections. They describe Aziz as being a “non-controversial” public figure and cite his proven track record in managing the economy. They go on to categorically state that Benazir Bhutto will not be the next prime minister.

This news, coupled with our previous reporting that Musharraf will not be abandoning his current civilian allies (read: the Chaudhries), rules out a major power-sharing agreement between Bhutto and Musharraf. It is likely that government intends to continue to dangle the idea of a power-sharing accord in front of Bhutto as a means of keeping both her and the public occupied while it prepares for general elections.

Though there may not be a major power-sharing agreement between Musharraf and Bhutto, we do foresee them coming to some sort of political accommodation along with the rest of the players on Pakistan’s scattered political field.

The government should be wary though not to underestimate Bhutto’s popularity or political abilities – she may just end up surprising everyone.

WHAT WE DO KNOW
The tactics and means involved in the attack make us believe with near certainty that they were carried out by Muslim extremists. Suicide bombings have not been the modus operandi for any of Pakistan’s more politically motivated organizations or those of insurgent tribes (e.g. Baloch nationalists).

The investigations being conducted right now are by and large a police affair though intelligence agencies are also heavily involved and coordinating efforts. My sources close to law enforcement investigations have revealed the following findings:

• There was only one suicide bomber. Though multiple severed heads have been found at the killing grounds in Karachi, there was only one “striker sleeve” found. A striker sleeve is the mechanism that the suicide bomber manually pulls to detonate the bomb.
• The bomber was a Muslim extremist. In addition to the mode of attack (suicide bombing), the actual mechanism – manual usage of a striker sleeve – hints to authorities that the bomber was an Islamist. Prior attacks by Muslim extremist groups in Pakistan have used the exact same mechanism.
• No IEDs used. When improvised explosive devices (IEDs) are planted, their explosions leave craters/holes in the ground. None were found at the scene.
• No car bombs used. Initial surveys indicate that there were no car bombs used. Authorities investigating have observed that all cars at the site were blown inward, not outward, the latter of which would indicate a car bomb.
• No grenade used. The media is widely reporting that the initial blast was a grenade. Sources have said that there were no signs of a grenade being used in terms of evidence found at the scene. They do however admit that a great deal of evidence was likely destroyed in the confusion and panic that ensued after the blasts.

Initial findings that no grenades or IEDs were used, leaves a glaring question – what caused the first blast? Details of the actual attack will continue to become available as investigations progress, but an even bigger question remains – who organized and funded the attackers?

WHO DONE IT?
A number of conspiracy theories have been floating around, particularly one in which some say Benazir Bhutto was behind the bombings as a means of boosting her own popularity – this is very unlikely. The consensus among authorities and officials in the government is that the bombing was too close for comfort and that Benazir could have legitimately lost her life in the process.

Bhutto did however announce that she had provided President Musharraf with a letter naming three individuals whom she believes were behind the attack. A well placed source revealed that the three named were:

1. Brig (retd.) Ejaz Shah - Intelligence Bureau (IB) Chief
2. Ijaz-ul-Haq - Religious Affairs Minister and son of the late dictator, Zia-ul-Huq, who hanged Bhutto’s father.
3. The National Accountability Bureau (NAB) official who was heading up the investigation into Bhutto’s alleged corruption scandals

The Ijaz-ul-Haq and the NAB official’s inclusion on the list has led many in the government to brush off Bhutto’s allegations as politically motivated. But the mention of Ejaz Shah is always both interesting and controversial.

A retired army brigadier, Ejaz Shah is head of Pakistan’s Intelligence Bureau (IB) which falls under the purview of the Interior Ministry. He is also known to be a close friend of Musharraf’s who engineered the electoral rise of the Chaudhry cousins who now head up Pakistan’s king’s party, the PML(Q). By taking a swipe at Shah, Bhutto may be looking to weaken the Chaudhries by taking aim at their chief sponsor.

There is a flip side though. Ejaz Shah may have very well felt threatened by the return of Bhutto as it endangered the Chaudhries’ role in power and thereby his influence in government. Recently, one top official told me, “Ejaz Shah is more sincere to the Chaudhries than he is to Musharraf.” For some time now, there have been some very negative undercurrents flowing in the establishment against the unsavory Ejaz Shah.

I had also reported a month ago in “Benazir Makes a Date” that some sources were speculating that the Chaudhries would likely seek to assassinate Bhutto upon her return. Though both Shah and the Chaudhries have a lot to lose with Bhutto’s return, their roles in the Karachi blasts are highly speculative. This information is provided here for you to make your own informed decision. Plus it’s important to keep in mind that this attack boosted Bhutto’s popularity; Ejaz Shah and the Chaudhries would have known this. With the level of influence and resources they have at their command, they would have been able to ensure an attack large enough to effectively eliminate Bhutto.

Many in the establishment are convinced that these attacks were entirely organized, funded and executed by the Taliban/Al-Qaeda nexus. They have the means, motivation and resources to see this sort of operation through from start to finish.

MORE ATTACKS?
Some lower level intelligence sources on the ground have stated that chatter in Islamist and “Taliban” circles indicates that there are more attacks to come. They’ve heard that militants planned on welcoming Benazir Bhutto with a “21 blast salute” of which they say three blasts have already been executed. They claim that there were three blasts in Karachi, not two as has almost been universally reported. This makes us doubt the veracity of these claims but there is always the possibility that the third bomb may have failed to go off.

Bhutto’s return has proven to be explosive in the most literal of senses. The terrorist attack in Karachi is the largest in Pakistan’s history. If there were ever a time for the forces of moderation to band together against extremism – it would be now.