• The constitution is suspended.
• Justice Abdul Hameed Dogar replaced Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry.
• Provincial and federal assemblies in tact.
• Shaukat Aziz: General Elections may be delayed (for up to one year).
• Judges across the country have been sworn in under the PCO.
• Opp. leaders arrested (e.g. Atizaz Ahsin, Javed Hashmi, Imran Khan, and Asma Jehangir).
• Benazir Bhutto has stated that she is willing to work with Musharraf.
• Private news outlets are now under strict operating guidelines.
• The country remains relatively calm.

Intel Forecasts Validated
Last week, we had reported that a major decision would be made on November 1st relating to the Musharraf government. Both our sources and Dawn are now reporting that the decision to declare a state of emergency was made on November 1st. Back in September, we had also stated that there moves were afoot by the government to force then-Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry’s resignation and that he would be out of office in a month; a month and a half later, Chaudhry finds himself out of a job.

What’s next?
As of yesterday, sources are reporting that the state of emergency will be short lived and that Musharraf will remove his uniform. If this is going to be Musharraf’s strategy, it’s a wise one. Keeping emergency rule short and removing his uniform shortly thereafter, will dampen opposition to him and preempt the organization of a large-scale protest movement that he will not be able to contain. He will also have accomplished his goal of removing one of the biggest thorns in his side: f0rmer Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry.

As of now, the opposition is in disarray with much of its leadership and nearly 500 activitsts already detained. Though talk of emergency rule had reached a fever pitch the day before, no one believed Musharraf would follow through thinking that move would be political suicide. Interestingly, the public for the most part has been quiet. But even if Musharraf is able to ride this out and successfully transition back to democracy as a civilian president, we do not foresee him completing his second 5-year term.

In the coming days, there may be full-on military activity in Pakistan’s northwest, specifically Swat and North Waziristan. Militants in the area may already be expecting this and are likely looking to come to an accord with the government. This was exhibited with the release today of the remaining 250 Pakistan Army troops that had been captured in late August. According to our sources, Pakistan currently has over 100,000 troops in the northwest. In addition to two heavy infantry divisions, two more infantry divisions have been moved in to the region with the intention of retaking each tribal agency/provincial district one at a time.

International Reaction
International reaction has almost universally been one of “disappointment” and “concern.” In reality however, these public statements are just lip service. For countries whose opinion actually matters for Pakistan — namely the United States and China — the primary concern was and still is the war on terror.

The United States. The White House termed Musharraf’s move as “disappointing” calling for him to remove his uniform and hold elections in January. Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice echoed similar sentiments calling for calm and a swift return to constitutional order. She also said that financial assistance to Pakistan would be reviewed. To retierate, these are all face saving statements for consumption by the domestic US audience and international community. The Bush administration cannot be seen as supporting anti-democratic moves. It should also be remembered that the Vice President’s office runs all Pakistan-related foreign policy, not the State Department.

However, the most noteworthy and underreported statement came from the Pentagon stating that emergency rule would not effect US military support for Pakistan. Behind closed doors, all that matters for the Bush administration and other Western governments is that the war on terror continue full force and the Pentagon statement highlighted that.

China. China is Pakistan’s closest ally and largest benefactor, bar none. China has been mum over the last few months when its come to the state of affairs in Pakistan in line with their policy of domestic non-interference. After yesterday’s imposition of emergency rule, the Chinese came out and stated that they were “concerned,” but that the Pakistani government and people were capable of solving their own problems. So long as the government in Islamabad enacts policies that will not destabilize the region or specifically China’s own troubled Xinjiang province, the Chinese will continue to support Pakistan and in this case, Musharraf.

Musharraf’s Address: “Pakistan First”
IB readers can view Musharraf’s nearly hour long address to the nation last night below as well as in our newly added media section. Most of the address is in Urdu but beginning at 36:30, he speaks briefly in English for his “friends in the West.” To quickly summarize, Musharraf criticized the Supreme Court’s “judicial activisim” saying that it impeded on the government’s ability to prosecute the war on terror and manage the economy. He also went on to say that terrorists had become too emboldened and that the government needed to be able to take swift action against them; thus he had taken this action for emergency rule.

Resources

• Text of the Proclamation of Emergency
• Text of the Provisional Constitutional Order (PCO)
• Text of Musharraf’s first PCO in October 1999
• Text of the former Supreme Court Order Voiding the PCO

President Musharraf is currently addressing the country on national television in English. Stating that the country is at a dangerous juncture. Speaking in English so the world can hear. More to come. (Updated via Blackberry, 3:52pm US EST/1:52am PST)

Dawn reports that Benazir Bhutto has returned to Karachi and was escorted home by police. The White House has termed the state of emergency as “disappointing.” (Updated via Blackberry, 2:58pm US EST/12:58am PST)

Confirmed: Musharraf is not under house arrest, is still definitely in the driver’s seat. Pakistan is being described as in a state of “emergency plus,” somewhere between martial law and a state of emergency. (Updated via Blackberry, 2:22pm US EST/12:22am PST)

[Editor's Note: I will be stepping away from my computer, will attempt to keep IB readers continually updated via my Blackberry. 12:35pm US EST/10:53pm PST]

Benazir Bhutto has reportedly stepped off the plane in Dubai and will not be returning to Pakistan so soon. Perhaps fearing arrest? Justice Abdul Hameed Dogar (pictured right) has now been sworn in as Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of Pakistan, under the PCO. (Updated 12:00pm US EST/10:00pm PST)

Benazir Bhutto is supposedly at Dubai Int’l Airport or already en route to Karachi. (Updated 11:53am US EST/8:53pm PST)

Thoughts. This is essentially martial law. The issue was ordered from the COAS to avoid the needed approval from parliament. There is also this rumor that Musharraf is under house arrest, and even if it’s not true, I don’t see Musharraf surviving this. I don’t forsee a large scale protest campaign against Musharraf until the confusion is settled and there is an accurate picture of the ground reality. Though speculation reached its peak yesterday over the declaration of a state of emergency, no one really expected Musharraf to follow through; that’s why I believe we’re going to see an opposition that is potentially in disarray. I also find it incredibly convenient that Benazir was out of the country while this all happened. It’s a little peculiar that she would leave the country so soon after staging such a large come back. (Updated 11:41am US EST/8:41pm PST)

UNCONFIRMED RUMOR: Some sources are now reporting the that Pres. Musharraf is under house arrest and that Vice Chief of Army Staff (VCOAS) General Ashfaq Kayani has taken control of the Army and thereby the country. This would explain why all announcements re: the state of emergency have simply stated that they were by order of the “Chief of Army Staff,” with Pres. Musharraf’s name ommitted. I repeat, this just a rumor. I have other sources who claim to have just spoken with Musharraf refuting the rumor. (Updated 11:15am US EST/8:15pm PST)

Justices from the Lahore High Court have been summoned to the Governor House to supposedly take oath under the PCO. Earlier, the Karachi High Court justices had been summoned to Sindh’s Governor House. (Updated 11:09am US EST/8:09pm PST)

The Supreme Court’s decision against the PCO orders the COAS, all Corps Commanders and civil/military officials from carrying out the PCO. It states that any future change in the composition of the Supreme Court bench will be illegal and that no judges may take oath under the PCO. (Updated 10:16am US EST/7:16pm PST)

A 7-member bench of the Supreme Court, headed by the Chief Justice, has declared the PCO void. This has set the stage for a full on confrontation between Musharraf and Iftikhar Chaudhry. According to legal experts, the government cannot pass a PCO during a state of emergency under Article 232 of the constitution. President of the Supreme Court Bar Association, Aitzaz Ahsan, has been arrested from his home. He was a lawyer for Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry. (Updated 9:53am US EST/6:53pm PST)

Multiple justices have now arrived at the Supreme Court; they include Justices Rana Bhagwandas, Javed Iqbal, Abdul Hameed Dogar, Faqir Khokar, Muhammad Abbasi, Shakirullah Jan, and Ghulam Rabbani. A heavy paramilitary presence including Pakistan Rangers is reported in Islamabad. Heavy security exists in front of facilities belonging to Radio Pakistan, PTV, and the Prime Minister. (Updated 9:36am US EST/6:36pm PST)

Cable transmissions of all news outlets, with the exception of the official Pakistan Television (PTV), have been shut down. Musharraf is expected to address the nation tonight. (Updated 9:36am US EST/6:36pm PST)

The Chief Justice of Pakistan is reportedly now in his chambers with two other senior judges — Justice Abdul Hameed Dogar and another unnamed judge. News outlets are speculating that Justice Dogar will be the new CJP. Mobile phones in Islamabad are being jammed. (Updated 9:18am US EST/6:18pm PST)