For the last several months, we’ve witnessed Pakistan tread down the path of implosion. The country finds itself in a recession and is relying once again on the IMF for budgetary support. The military campaign in South Waziristan may have merely displaced militants who continue to carry out retaliatory bombings and assassinations in Pakistan proper. The nation’s allies (even the Chinese) are growing increasingly weary with a nation that can’t get its affairs in order. Encirclement by regimes hostile to Pakistan grows closer to reality.
It’s a grim picture that, at first, reaffirmed for me the need for consensus among the country’s elite. At the Insider Brief, we have long called for a single cohesive and comprehensive agenda agreed to by the military, politicians, bureaucracy, business interests, and the media to undo the crisis in governance and set the country back on the path to socio-economic development.
However, the more I’ve thought about it, the more the problem presents itself as one that is rooted in perspective – Pakistan’s elite appear to be out of touch with geopolitical reality. After all, when the situation is so dire, why is the military-bureaucratic complex hacking away at the PPP-led government? Why does the media remain mired in conspiracy theories? Why are the country’s political parties locked in a cycle of political opportunism? The behavior isn’t rational.
The disconnect with reality appears to stem from two core flaws in the Pakistani perspective:
1. Failure to understand the limitation of national resources/capabilities.
- Pakistan cannot go it alone. Pakistan’s geography makes the nation strategic, but its geography also acts as an inhibitor. Pakistan does not have the resources to achieve self-sufficiency; Pakistan must trade and seek external investment not just to flourish, but also to survive. That’s why it’s vital that Pakistan not alienate its key sponsors (the U.S., China, Saudi Arabia, etc.) or its regional neighbors (Iran, Afghanistan, etc.).
- The Kerry-Lugar Bill: When the U.S. tripled non-military aid to Pakistan through the Kerry-Lugar Bill, the Pakistani military did exactly what it shouldn’t have done – it voiced massive opposition to the bill and alienated the U.S. The military’s opposition is rooted in language tying the aid to civilian control over the military. The military blames President Asif Zardari for the wording and is out for blood. Being the single most powerful institution in Pakistan and after governing the Pakistan for over half its existence, the Pakistani military must be acting out of sheer pride if it feels that the wording in the Kerry-Lugar Bill will undermine its pre-eminent status in Pakistan overnight. (People who sought to have that wording placed in the Kerry-Lugar Bill should have also taken this rationale into account. It was a tactical misstep to think that conditional U.S. aid would work to strengthen democratic institutions in Pakistan. The best way to strengthen democracy is to garner overwhelming public support through capable leadership and socio-economic progress.)
- Pakistan cannot seek parity with India – military or otherwise. Since its inception, Pakistan has viewed itself as a strategic equal of India – and to disastrous ends. India is far too large and developing at far too quick a pace for Pakistan to be its peer. Though it has far to go, India is on the road to becoming a global power. Pakistan is a regional power at best. Militarily, Pakistan has achieved a minimum deterrence through its nuclear capability. It should reduce the size of its standing military and focus on becoming smaller, more mobile, and technologically advanced. Rely on force multipliers and redirect funds towards development.
- Pakistan cannot win Kashmir from India. Three wars over the disputed state (Kargil included) have demonstrated that Pakistan cannot wrest Kashmir from India’s control – India’s military is far too superior in terms of quality and quantity. The best Pakistan can hope for is recognition of the status quo or a Musharrafian solution (joint governance of Kashmir). Again, focus on effectively governing existing Pakistani territory and create a model that demonstrates why Kashmir is better in Pakistani hands.
2. Failure to understand that the state’s actions have consequences.
- Militant groups, sponsored by Pakistan’s military, have turned on the state. These militant groups are no longer national security assets to leverage against India or to attain “strategic depth” in Afghanistan. They are not the product of a conspiracy hatched by any combination of Indians, Israelis or Americans. The only conspirators here are those who nurtured these groups and now do not want to shoulder the responsibility for the deaths of hundreds of innocent Pakistani civilians.
- Ineffective and inequitable governance results in a loss of sovereignty. Poor and inequitable governance spawned an insurgency in East Pakistan, providing India the opening for the 1971 war and Pakistan’s subsequent dismemberment. Once again, poor and inequitable governance has spawned not one, but two insurgencies in Pakistan’s west (i.e., Balochistan and the NWFP/FATA).
- Irresponsible behavior with nuclear technology is the biggest threat to Pakistan’s arsenal. Many Pakistanis believe that the U.S. is out to denuclearize Pakistan. Pakistanis also view it as unfair that the Indians have a civil nuclear deal with the Americans but they don’t. However, none of this should come as a surprise after Pakistan, through Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan, proliferated nuclear technology to the likes of Libya, North Korea, and Iran. Pakistan must demonstrate responsibility and maturity in handling its nuclear capability if it wants cooperation from western powers.
Knowing where the problem lies, the greater question then becomes: how do we go about changing mindsets? How do we go about awakening a nation from its daze?
The answer? We talk about it.
Educate. Encourage mature discourse. Repeat (as many times as necessary).
Footnote:
I recently had the opportunity to sit down with Pakistan’s Ambassador to the United States, Husain Haqqani, whom I’ve known since he was a professor at Boston University. In discussing U.S.-Pakistan relations and Pakistan’s role in the wider world, it occurred to me that Haqqani is arguably among the best envoys Pakistan has had in Washington in a long time. He is articulate, well connected, and knows what he’s talking about. Even if the PPP government falls or if Zardari is ousted, it may not be a bad idea to keep Haqqani around. Pakistan, I believe, is best served with him as its ambassador.
8 responses so far ↓
1 Mylegacy // Nov 30, 2009 at 2:01 am
Shaan Akbar – as I see it from Canada – you’ve hit a large number of nails solidly right on their heads.
Too many Pakistanis buy into a sort of “Mythic Pakistan” the real Pakistan has many more challenges and way fewer friends. However, the road forward begins – as you suggest – with dialogue – remember dialogue includes LISTENING as well as talking.
Respect each other – and the world will then respect you. I believe Pakistan (and Turkey) have within them the where with all to show the world that constructive, respectful, Islamic society does not have to be mired in the past but can build prosperity and peace for the men women and children of their countries while embracing the future and settling their disputes with democracy and discussion instead of bomb vests and blind hatred.
Pakistan, and Islam, is only LIMITED by those who remain convinced that nothing constructive has occurred in the last 1,400 odd years. Will Pakistan join the world as we go forth and colonize the Solar System or watch – unmoved and uncomprehending? The choice is yours. The world and the Universe await your reply.
2 Imran // Nov 30, 2009 at 10:32 am
If the answer is education, the challenge is cutting through all the noise pollution that is being produced by TV anchors and mass media.
I posit a second question: How do we encourage mature discourse in a nation saturated with the most outrageous conspiracy theories?
It is clear that sober discussion of geopolitical reality is vital not only to our development, but to our security. But it’s so much easier to believe the Illuminati fantasies of people like Ahmed Quraishi. This is the reality in which we find ourselves: How do we encourage people to change?
3 Modus // Dec 13, 2009 at 4:48 am
so Mr. Akbar, how many of Pakistani envoys to America you have met? since you made the statement “Haqqani is arguably among the best envoys Pakistan has had in Washington in a long time.”
Few more questions for you:
1. Why is it so that the thousands of nuclear weapons of the US, USSR, China, France, UK, Israel, India are not a threat to world peace and only Pakistan/Iran and Libya?
2. Would you please mind to mention at least in passing that these militant groups were supported by the US as well (everybody knows Pakistan military supported them).
3. And also would you mind to advice what possibly Pakistan should have done in hindsight with 100,000 of Afghan militants and 20,000 of Arab militants armed to teeth and left to their own devices after 1990.
4. if were not it for the bad governance of Pakistani leaders bucked by the US, Pakistan would have long solved Kashmir not the least in 1962.
cheers!
4 Mylegacy // Dec 17, 2009 at 1:27 pm
Modus – my thoughts on the 4 points you raised:
1) Unfortunately, Pakistan – Iran and Libya all have to view every event that occurs, every discovery made, and every decision they make, through a 1400 year old lens. This would not be that serious an issue if not for the fact that many use that lens to support indiscriminate use of self-murder and the murder of men women and children pretty much without any regard whatsoever. Simply put – sane people everywhere – Muslims included – do not trust nuclear weapons in hands which might let them fall to people you are clearly insane and to whom mass murder is merely another day at the office.
When you add corruption to this mix, you see Pakistan’s top nuclear scientist giving nuclear secrets to any number of insane regimes, including North Korea – surely the most despicable regime on earth. Now you see why many are wary of Pakistan’s nukes.
2) As you may be aware there had been a “cold war” between capitalism and communism going on since the end of WW2. As the Russians and Chinese were delighted to see American bogged down – and losing – in Vietnam the Americans were delighted to see Russia getting bogged down in Afghanistan. Accordingly, the Americans armed anyone who was fighting the Russians. Including a little group of mostly Saudis led by a certain Mr Osama Bin Laden.
Obviously, it was in Pakistan’s interest to support those fighting against the Russians as well. It was not in – is not in – Pakistan’s interest to have Afghanistan occupied PERMANENTLY by any hostile force – so naturally they also supported the opposition to the Russians.
3) As you know on 9/11 America was attacked. America is powerful – very powerful – and they DEMANDED that the Taliban turn over those that planned the attack. The Taliban would not. They had fought with these people, died with these people and refused to turn them over. Personally, I understand the Taliban not turning them over to the Americans – under the circumstances I think most people can.
However, America wanted revenge and being the worlds sole super power – it took it. The result – as you say was 100,000 Afghan militants and 20,000 Arab militants armed to the teeth and generally very pissed off.
It was at this point that President Bush betrayed Afghanistan, Pakistan and America by invading Iraq. President Bush left Afghanistan with not enough support to allow the country to rebuild and too little to even stop the Taliban from crawling back from their caves. As a direct result, Pakistan was left in a delicate spot without the resources to adequately defend itself and definitely without the resources to take on the Islamists.
In “hindsight” Pakistan could not have done realistically anything much other than it did – which was to slowly swing in the air like a spider’s web unconnected at one corner – until America returned their attention to the “AfPak Problem.” Fortunately, they have now done so. There is at least some hope.
4) As to Kashmir it is what it is – at this point in time it’s a problem for India and Pakistan – period. The only RATIONAL way forward is simply for both sides to accept the status quo and get on on with life.
As to 1962 – the “Johnson Line” the “1899 Line”, a war between China and India, interference also by Russia, America and England at the same time – that was WAY MORE COMPLICATED than is the situation today.
Today, two countries can solve Kashmir with the stroke of a pen. Back then there were way too many parties – with way too many agendas for a solution to be expected.
Conclusion: Your four points raise issues and problems that explain why solving Pakistan’s problems has been so difficult to resolve.
However, an end to corruption, an end to looking at the future through the wrong end of the telescope and an end to not accepting the reality on the ground would all go a long way to Pakistan meeting it’s challenges and going forward with the rest of the world as we explore the incomprehensible vastness of space and the incomprehensible smallness of the quantum.
There is NO sane reason Pakistan can’t join India and China in gaining material wealth and a healthier, safer future for your children and grand children – just stop rehashing the reasons for past failure and MEET the challenges you have today with intelligence and good will.
5 noman habib // Dec 27, 2009 at 12:07 pm
Shan akbar, thanks for very realistic analysis though It is hard agree to conclusion you propose.
1.Pakistan can not take Kashmir, Honestly Pakistan,s only mistake was looking to western word for just solution .Things are almost beyond Kashmir now but rest assure that in modern warfare holding ground against hostile population and well equipped enemy is not possible .The best opportunity for India was Musharaf era but that time is lost and I don,t see anyone willing to normalize with India under American Umbrella In Pakistan.
2.US presence in theater has changed the balance in anti Pakistan forces i.e US and India but it is temporary things are turning in favor as time and history is on our side.
3.The rebellion in Tribal region will die gradually once Pakistan will stop towing US lines and they have no choice other than that.
4.governance will improve but right now we are on war and only war has to take priority.
5.The economic crises is there but the problem is that economic pattern of a nation,s economy emerges from geopolitical compulsions, we need a self sufficient economy to survive isolation during war but we need not to surrender for better economy.
6 Animesh // Jan 8, 2010 at 12:12 pm
Hi Mylegacy
I am very impressed by your two responses above and believe it’s the people like you, Asma Jahangir and Editor Shaan Akbar that can take Pakistan out of this malice. You guys must make yourself heard and ‘shout at top of your voice’ if need be to bring some sanity amongst relentless conspiracy theories brewing in Pakistani media every day.
Have you considered starting for own -maybe low budget channel in Pakistan or on net? Something like Democracy NOW in US? I think it’s is critical for Pakistanis like you to speak up now before it’s too late, I’ll join too if Pakistanis are ready to hear advice from an Indian;)), cheers
7 Tilsim // Jan 25, 2010 at 5:51 pm
Good site. Just visited today. Support any blog that will wake up fellow Pakistanis from the mass indoctrination at school and through the media, in particular in the Urdu print and tv media. It’s an irony that this great liberal language is now used to further agendas of fear and hate. We need a modern, progressive Urdu newspaper and TV channel desparately.
8 antony // Mar 26, 2010 at 3:47 pm
am very impressed by your two responses above and believe it’s the people like you, Asma Jahangir and Editor Shaan Akbar that can take Pakistan out of this malice. ” exact feelings from myself”.
We indians will support you for prosperous pakistan with good food and music in 5 years from now if you can convince other pakistanis to seek prosperity and not hate against india.
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