Summary
On September 23rd, Reuters reported that three intelligence officials confirmed that Pakistani troops and tribesman shot down a suspected US military unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) over South Waziristan. If true, Pakistan’s fast developing UAV industry could find itself bolstered with the latest American UAV technology.
Analysis
Viewed in the context of multiplying reports covering US cross-border incursions and strikes in Pakistan’s northwest, the downed UAV was likely a Predator drone. Whether the drone was a UCAV – unmanned combat aerial vehicle – equipped with Hellfire missiles, is unclear. What is increasingly clear from reports, however, is that the drone and its parts were collected by Pakistani security forces largely in tact. Gaining access to the Predator’s technology should prove to be a boon for Pakistan.
Pakistan’s indigenous UAV technology is by no means rudimentary. Its UAV industry has been growing at a rapid pace over the course of the past decade, driven by both government-funded and private sector programs. In fact, the US Border Guard even purchased the Pakistani-made “Border Eagle” UAV in 2004. But while it has been adept at developing short-to-medium range tactical UAVs, Pakistan’s industry has faced a gap in its ability to develop longer range, long endurance UAVs.
To fill this gap, Pakistan sought to purchase the Predator UAV from the US. The US declined to sell the Predator to Pakistan, despite its utility in monitoring Pakistan’s treacherous border with Afghanistan. Now, Pakistan has access to some of the best American-made UAV technology at the cost of a few dozen shell casings.
It’s worth noting that this wouldn’t be the first time that Pakistan has used access to American technology to further its own indigenous defense programs. In August 1998, near the tail end of the Clinton administration, the US launched Tomahawk cruise missile strikes on terrorist training camps in Afghanistan. At least two of those cruise missiles failed to reach their targets and landed in Pakistani territory – unexploded. Seven years later in August 2005, Pakistan test launched its first cruise missile, the Babur (Hatf-VII). The Babur, a high-speed, low-level terrain following cruise missile, bore a number of similarities to the Tomahawk.
Let’s see what Pakistan is test flying five years from now.
(Editor’s Note: Apologies for my conspicuous absence over the last month or so. I’m afraid my posting will likely be sporadic in the coming months as I’m occupied with multiple projects. In the meanwhile, I’ve got 3 posts in the queue and hope to have them published soon. I’ll be dealing with the Marriott bombing, Pakistan’s armed forces, and relations with the US, keep an eye out.)
7 responses so far ↓
1 Teeth Maestro // Sep 24, 2008 at 3:44 am
I must agree – this is gonna be fun for the Pak Army in opening up the downed drone and learn from its technology.
What I question is, do the Americans place some sort of destruct mechanism if this technology falls out of their control – I mean that would be the first line of action to prevent their secrets from going out. Just a question
I have heard the newer version of UAV hawks are far more better – so this should now be old-generation – but that said we will still take the cake and enjoy it
2 Rubab Saleem // Sep 24, 2008 at 7:01 pm
Yups if this all is true..
3 Muhammad Irtiza Nazar // Sep 24, 2008 at 11:30 pm
Yes, most American technology must come with a self-destruct mechanism, but the point is, that this UAV was probably relaying directly to a ground base station, which means it only had real-time relaying technology on board, not recording technology.
The real utility of aself-destruct mechanism comes into play when the drone is carrying sensitive information. That, I doubt was the case here. The drone was probably relaying.
Prudent to consider is also the irony of the matter if there were a self-destruct mechanism but could not initiate because it got damaged due to the shot and the consequent fall.
In any case Pakistan Army has a toy to play with. Good luck to them.
4 Mansoor Ali khan // Sep 25, 2008 at 12:06 am
I will be waiting for your upcomming posts , You have quality over quantity
5 Pak Law // Sep 25, 2008 at 3:59 pm
Looking forward to the articles awaiting publishing!
What’s your take on Iftikhar Chaudhry – is he going to be restored or not?
6 nota // Sep 26, 2008 at 12:08 am
First of all let’s not get too excited in that this is NOT the first Predator drone that we got our hands on.
Second, here is an interesting post on the subject:
Is it an attempt one one side by our army to take credit away from the tribesmen and on the other an attempt by US army to cover up their embarrassment at loosing the craft?
Whose Drone is it Anyway?
Following up on yesterday’s myriad of reports regarding what did or didn’t happen to a US Predator Drone near the South Waziristan border, Pakistan’s military has officially admitted to recovering the wreckage of a downed US drone near the border which suffered a malfunction and crashed, finally putting to rest speculation about the incident.
Or perhaps not. Residents still insist the plane was shot down by tribesmen rather than crashing on its own. And though yesterday a US defense official denied that any drones were missing, today a military spokesman conceded that a drone did in fact go down. However, he maintained that the drone crashed in Paktika province, and not close to the Pakistan border. He also said the US recovered the downed craft “immediately.”
So the US claims to have recovered its lost drone, and Pakistan also has recovered another drone. Whose is it? Pakistani TV showed footage of the wreckage, and the footage is apparently consistent with an American Predator Drone. But the part shown has been sold to other countries, so its also possible the drone belonged to the British or some other nation….
7 Reality // Sep 27, 2008 at 7:14 pm
This isn’t going to help the Pakistani army in any way, shape or form. To put it bluntly, the Pakistani military does not have the economic or technological infrastructure to exploit any technology this crashed drone might have.
It’s more likely than not that the Pakistani Army will turn the wreckage over to the Chinese who will reverse engineer it bit by bit. That is probably what they did with the tomahawks they recovered, and the Babur is probably a Chinese cruise missile with Pakistani characteristics.
Even if they were to identify areas or technologies of interest, how would they go about manufacturing it?
The shell is probably (not sure since I don’t know) made of carbon fiber, and it’s a foregone conclusion that Pakistan does not have any effective or substantial carbon fiber manufacturing capability. The Chinese don’t either. The Japanese own the market.
What about the electronics? Pakistan cannot manufacture any advanced and complex silicon-based or other compound semiconductor based semiconductors. The Chinese have the capacity for silicon-based chips since a number of contract manufacturing plants have been built in the country. But, I don’t think they have any for compound semiconductor manufacturing.
The Pakistani state won’t get anywhere by picking up the crumbs left by others. Better to innovate on your own. But, with the current leadership in place, that is a wishful dream left to the far, far, future.
-R
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