On the eve of his first visit to the United States, Prime Minister Yousaf Gilani and his cabinet made the decision to place Pakistan’s premier intelligence agency, the ISI, under the jurisdiction of the the Interior Ministry alongside the Intelligence Bureau. As a result, the Interior Ministry, headed by Rehman Malik, will have administrative, financial and operational control over the ISI. Insider Brief sources report that the ensuing reaction in the military and intelligence community has been one of uproar. Overnight meetings have been held while frantic and outraged phone calls continue between military officials as we speak.
The decision is one that is bold, unprecedented and controversial. The ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence) has traditionally fallen under the purview of the military, with Army officers rotating through the agency for two year stints. Many have labeled the ISI as a “state within a state” for its pervasiveness and ability to influence state matters with near complete autonomy. Today’s decision by Gilani and his cabinet marks a major move by the nascent civilian government in the long standing struggle by Pakistan’s civilian/political forces to bring the military establishment under their control. This news also likely corroborates our last post as the move may be in response to military/intelligence discussions over the ouster of his PPP government.
The military will not accept the cabinet decision lying down. Insider Brief sources further report that many ranking military officials have indicated that there will be a coup if Gilani does not back down from his decision. Such a move would not be unprecedented. Many may remember that the last time a civilian government attempted to meddle in military affairs, it ultimately resulted in the coup that brought President Musharraf to power. Much of the anger in the military is being directed towards Interior Minister Rehman Malik, who is widely believed by Pakistan’s intelligence community to have had some affiliation with the CIA. In the eyes of Pakistan intelligence, Malik’s access may severely compromise ISI operational security.
The government’s move has also placed Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff (COAS), Gen. Ashfaq Kayani, in an awkward position. Since his appointment to COAS, he has been an advocate of extricating the military from overt interference in government affairs and has made a very public effort to support the new government. As opposed to engaging Kayani in a process to alter the balance of power between Rawalpindi and Islamabad, Gilani’s government has acted brashly and resultantly forced Kayani into a corner. If Kayani does not respond forcefully, he will appear weak and lose credibility with his subordinates. The Army Chief will also likely want to respond — after all, the ISI was under his command.
If there is a coup, it will likely be a politically engineered, “soft coup.” This would include the possibility of President Musharraf dismissing the government through powers granted to him in the constitution. An overt military coup is unlikely as it would trigger sanctions, isolate Pakistan internationally and result in a further weakening of already shaky relationship.
The PPP has taken a risky gamble — Prime Minister Gilani may return to Pakistan only to find himself out of a job.
20 responses so far ↓
1 Not)me // Jul 26, 2008 at 3:59 pm
About time PPP government was removed; they’re nothing (with exceptions of course) but a bunch of liars, thieves and shysters.
2 Teeth Maestro // Jul 26, 2008 at 5:48 pm
Good logic – one step more into the eye of the storm
3 One Pakistani // Jul 26, 2008 at 11:09 pm
I would wellcome the coup…
If this damn-ocracy goes on, Pakistan will soon be dismantled into fractions.
May Allah save Pakisan and May Allah give some wise men in Pakistan Army to launch a successful coup. Ameen.
4 Irtiza // Jul 26, 2008 at 11:47 pm
quite logical….but I think that this coup will help Pakistan/Pakistanis….
5 Anas Imtiaz // Jul 27, 2008 at 3:00 am
Fingers crossed!
6 Jawad // Jul 27, 2008 at 6:07 am
Yes, indeed a big gamble. It might not be of any support to democracy in the long run.
7 SAWJ // Jul 27, 2008 at 8:23 am
I hope that whatever happens is good for Pakistan. These PPP kleptocrats are eating Pakistan from the inside.
8 Nasir Jamal // Jul 27, 2008 at 9:06 am
I think it was an ill-advised move. I think that we are headin towards another coup. I also think that it would be better for the country. Anyone would be better than Asif Zardari.
9 Pakistan: The Coming Coup? « Indus Asia Online Journal (iaoj) // Jul 27, 2008 at 9:34 am
[...] Gilani’s Gamble: The Coming Coup? [...]
10 Riaz Haq // Jul 27, 2008 at 9:53 am
In most organizations, public or private, there is usually a big difference between formal and informal org charts. It’s the informal org chart that matters far more than what may be on paper. Paper changes usually do not mean a lot. For example, on paper, Gillani is currently the big honcho in Pak govt. But does any one believe that? Of course not! All major decisions are made by Zardari in Dubai. Key decision makers pay much more attention to Zardari than Gillani.
11 Salman // Jul 27, 2008 at 10:00 am
I don’t think that any ‘softest of coup’ would take place at this point of time when clear and express public opinion against President and Army is at it’s lowest. This progress does confirm one thing that the Government has been reassured by the US. The U.S knows that Pakistan remains as long its Army remains powerful. So it is the ultimate attack on our country that could take place in modern age when you cannot physically invade and capture a country. Well this action will have a little long-term effect. It will definitely leave grudge which will make its way out when ever the time is ripe, and it won’t take long before the public opinion changes. It only took 100 Days for PPP ! And a little more before that for Musharraf.
12 IMRAN TAHIR // Jul 27, 2008 at 11:11 am
shaan welcome back with new things i also think same way that this GOVT is about to go beacuse this GOVT has no direction and agenda .They seem like entranch not able to move any where GIlani itself found helpless who ever will come will blessed by mush and us and army too the whole election drma was about BB specific only she is dead now so US has no interest in this GOVT any more so looks like presintial form of system is coming that what Pakistan realy needs beacuse the current system is dead and cannot do any job.
13 Farrukh Khan Pitafi // Jul 27, 2008 at 6:11 pm
Of all the people not Rehman Malik please. He is a shaky spook at best.
14 Aamir Ali // Jul 28, 2008 at 10:26 am
It’s amazing to see the Pakistanis who had been cussing at Musharraf and praising democracy, now wanting to abort the current democracy and go back to military rule.
Pakistanis are a confused and goofy lot.
15 Zardari Loses this Round | The Insider Brief // Jul 28, 2008 at 11:13 pm
[...] ← Gilani’s Gamble: The Coming Coup? [...]
16 SaveMe(Pak) // Jul 29, 2008 at 7:01 am
Can someone tell me what is happening? Are we really confused in between democracy and military rule? Who is responsible for this confusion ? Are we really a goofy lot ?
17 Zardari Loses this Round « Indus Asia Online Journal (iaoj) // Jul 29, 2008 at 9:55 am
[...] had taken the decision to place the ISI under the complete control of the Interior Ministry. As our sources reported, uproar ensued in the military establishment and less than 24 hours later, the decision was [...]
18 chaudry // Feb 1, 2009 at 4:19 pm
i think there should be a military coup because this govt led by cheat and convict zardari is not going to do anything constructive for the country an the people who are already suffering are going to end up suffering even more
19 ISHQ // Oct 26, 2009 at 4:45 am
of course we are not goofs. The only problem is that we select goofs. The leaders of our country are simply illiterate. They cannot even speak right. Rehman Malik warning the people of pakistan not to text against Zardari, “Hum routing ker k inn ko pakar lain gai”… .lolzzz….. i bet he cant even launch Internet Explorer after starting the windows
20 Zahid Khan // Feb 13, 2010 at 12:55 pm
Worst times have arrived therefore Mr. 10% (ten percent) have become leaders of our beloved country. I will not go into the details how corrupt our leaders are. Along with corruption they don’t care if poor people live or die. Zardari and his government have sold our country for few dollars and now our national interests are also on sale by him. When I think about the situation in Pakistan my heart really goes, looking at the necessity which Pakistani nation does not have, such as Sugar, Wheat flour, Electricity, Gas, jobs, clean drinking water and there is huge list of other necessities which Pakistani nation does not enjoy. However leaders of Pakistan have turned a blind eye to the problems of poor people. I always wonder that why Pakistan does not utilizes 18 billion people and produce various items which can later be sold in international market such as Airplanes, Fast Trains, Weapon technology and various other items. Leaders of Pakistan have pledged to neglect this nation and they are extremely busy filling their own pockets with stolen poor people’s money. I pray to God that the injustice vanishes soon and we see a real and authentic leader who can lead us through prosperity and happiness. I believe the leaders of Pakistan have failed to look after their country and they have failed to show care. We as a nation should unite together and raise against the ignorance we face today. Thank you
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