The Intel
Insider Brief sources report that Pakistani intelligence officials have recently been engaged in a spate of closed-door meetings. The topic of discussion? The ouster of Asif Ali Zardari and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) from power and the engineered return of Nawaz Sharif.
The Why
The news in and of itself should not be surprising, and for multiple reasons. First, the Pakistani military/intelligence establishment has always distrusted and disliked the PPP. Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, Benazir’s father, recognized this and established the Federal Security Force in an attempt to offset the influence of the ISI. The FSF was promptly disbanded after Gen. Zia-ul-Huq’s 1979 coup. On the other hand, Nawaz Sharif is a child of the establishment, promoted and sponsored by Gen. Zia himself.
People may question – what about General Ashfaq Kayani and his stance on political non-interference? The answer and second reason likely lies in the decreasing ability of the military establishment’s inability to control low-to-mid-level personnel as has been demonstrated by the numerous security lapses and leaks that have led to numerous terrorist strikes against sensitive targets.
This brings us to the third reason. Many in Pakistan’s military and intelligence apparatus remain sympathetic to their former proxies as is Nawaz Sharif. Sharif is well liked by Pakistan’s right and religious fundamentalists. His return would likely mark the end to the Pakistan Army’s push in the country’s northwest.
The How
If Pakistani intelligence is truly attempting to engineer Nawaz Sharif’s return, the question is, how do they intend on doing so? The answer may lie in what Insider Brief sources recently intimated to us. In the on going discussions over Zardari, it was mentioned that the last phone call to Benazir Bhutto minutes before her assassination was made by Zardari himself. He reportedly asked Bhutto why she was sitting in the car and not outside as the “people wanted to see her.”
The story could conceivably be true – there’s no doubt that Pakistani intelligence tapped Bhutto and Zardari’s phones – and Zardari did indeed have a lot to gain from her death. But the far likelier explanation could be that Pakistani intelligence is working to build up a story to incriminate or at the very least, implicate Zardari in the court of public opinion.
The other explanation is that these meetings are just indicative of pressure tactics being used by President Musharraf and the “establishment” as they tussle with Zardari and his civilian government over major issues such as the restoration of deposed judges, tackling terrorism and handling Pakistan’s economic issues.
The Lesson
The major take away is that the government must act with surety and decisiveness. A constellation of forces is aligning against the sitting government as it waits idly by, paralyzed by indecision and infighting. If it doesn’t act, the PPP will have passed up a chance to consolidate fresh democratic foundations for Pakistan and the opportunity to tackle issues from a liberal platform.
These closed-door meetings were just warning shots that time is running out.
14 responses so far ↓
1 Farrukh Khan Pitafi // Jul 17, 2008 at 6:54 am
Congratulations for this very lucid piece of reporting. It also confirms the suspicions that I have been voicing in the last few months the last one being in the shape of my published column and blog post: http://pitafi.com/2008/07/04/ppp-rule-at-this-cost
And the fact that the mid and low ranking elements in the intelligence are not cooperating is also something understandable though deeply worrying.
2 noman habib // Jul 20, 2008 at 9:02 am
Pro-US elements are divided in Pakistani establishment.One is pro Musharaf group and the other is Pro democracy.
PPP headed by Zardari is liked by state department and in the longer run would be benificial for Pak-US relations where is Musharaf has support in Pentagone has all the potential to be shah of Iran.
Musharaf and Establishment is doing every dirty tactics to break PPP and PMLN allaince
and this blackmail is part of it.
Nawaz sharif is acceptable to mid level ISI officials alright but he is villian to pro-US lobby
and the state department as well.Zardari want to take him to USA along with him to get PERMISSION for musharafs ouster but NS does not want to commit political suicide.
I don,t think Zardari will be ousted but for sure he does not seem to be coming back soon
3 Teeth Maestro // Jul 21, 2008 at 12:42 pm
As usual a jolly welcome back - it is truly for these brilliant pieces of information I bookmark your blog
As they say ‘aap ka ho munh meetha’ though I don’t exactly approve of Mr. Ganja - but in a way its better then Mr. 10% anytime around. I am also told through personal information - that Ganja is seen to be smiling a lot more … if that is any indication to the freckles we have seen on his forehead in the past few months
4 Aamir Ali // Jul 23, 2008 at 1:25 am
If this report is true, I am disappointed by Pakistani intelligence. Its not their job to decide who should run Pakistan. While they are too busy with politics, terrorists are blasting our country apart and nuke scientists are engaged in proliferation abroad.
Frankly I am skeptical of this report.
5 Aamir // Jul 25, 2008 at 2:02 pm
I just saw Mr Shaan Akbar’s profile on LinkedIn. It’s a nice resume but I wonder how he managed to become a “Senior Strategist” at Disney Corp with only 2 years of work experience.
If it is true than Congratulations.
6 The Coming Coup? | The Insider Brief // Jul 26, 2008 at 3:23 pm
[…] ← Table Talk: Ousting Zardari […]
7 Pakistan: The Coming Coup? « Indus Asia Online Journal (iaoj) // Jul 27, 2008 at 9:37 am
[…] forces to bring the military establishment under their control. This news also likely corroborates our last post as the move may be in response to military/intelligence discussions over the ouster of his PPP […]
8 P.Iqbal // Jul 27, 2008 at 12:25 pm
Who do you think was responsible for killing of Bilawal House Security Officer Khalid Shahinsha: One of the leading underground mafia leader hired by Zerdari during his stay in USA for the protection of BB, and was now trying to have control of the gambling dens and sata market of Karachi?
Is it true that Asifa Zardari attempted to commit suiside to ease off her guilt of the last call she made to BB from Dubai on persuation of her father, to show her face from the roof of her bullet proof car?
9 expatriate // Jul 28, 2008 at 3:39 pm
This is too far fetched - skewed fantasy. Why would army want to turn its back on dollars. Any one who thinks Army’s allaince with NS can help them retain their purse or get a raise, is terribly mistaken. Use your head folks. It simply does’nt add up.
10 Zardari Loses this Round | The Insider Brief // Jul 28, 2008 at 11:14 pm
[…] intelligence at the behest of the Americans. This was an attempt by Zardari to halt ISI activity against the PPP government in Punjab and gain full control of what is essentially Pakistan’s most powerful “policy” […]
11 Zardari Loses this Round « Indus Asia Online Journal (iaoj) // Jul 31, 2008 at 6:46 pm
[…] intelligence at the behest of the Americans. This was an attempt by Zardari to halt ISI activity against the PPP government in Punjab and gain full control of what is essentially Pakistan’s most powerful “policy” […]
12 Syed Amjad Ali Shah // Aug 1, 2008 at 1:19 am
What is the reason for normal Pakistani to believe that this blog is not the creation of ISI/MI/CIA? Why the so called insider are divulging such types of stories to the writer? Why and what authority we should believe the contents of the reports availabale on blog to be true as possibilty of mis feeding of the facts to the Inside Writer could not be ruled out? If Nawaz Sharif is the choice of the agency then why he is being kept outside the political arena? If Nawaz Sharif is the person relied upon by the establishment then why not PPP and Zardari restore the real judiciary and secure their as well as the future of Pakistan and its poor masses? Till to date PPP has not initiated a single step to prove that they are interested in Democracy and Rule of Law. All issues are settled outside the parliament and entire process of decision making is in the hand of Zardari and his hand picked elected and non elected entities. If all decisions are to be made outside the parliament and PM has to act in accordance to the wishes of hand picked cronies then why PPP is singing the song of Supremacy of Parliament and Rule of Law? Can anyone provide answers to these as Paki Nation is fed up of all sorts of insiders stories and want to hear stories based on strong evidences circumstantial, documentry or oral. If these are not availabale please have mercy on the people of Pakistan who are fed up with the entire system, political parties, mullah and religious elements, cheat business community and Civil and Military establishment.
13 Shaan Akbar // Aug 2, 2008 at 9:14 pm
Syed,
Thanks for your feedback. I share your frustration with the present state of affairs in Pakistan. We can only hope that things get better.
I can assure I’m not “misfeeding” any facts/information. My track record speaks for itself. My sources have revealed a number of events before they’ve came to pass, including (but not limited to): the declaration of emergency, President Musharraf stepping down as Army Chief, the appointments of Gen. Kayani, Gen. Nadeem Taj, Gen. Muhammad Asif, etc and most recently, the Army’s backlash against the move to place the ISI under the Interior Ministry.
Thanks again for your readership and feedback.
Best,
Shaan
14 Storm on the Horizon for Pakistan « Indus Asia Online Journal (iaoj) // Aug 6, 2008 at 3:33 pm
[…] The first is desperation. After his failed attempt to gain control of the ISI as well as ISI efforts to undermine his government (for the purposes of maintaining a political stalemate), Zardari […]
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