Around Christmas, sources had reported that Pakistani intelligence had indications that the violence afflicting the rest of the country — Karachi, Peshawar, Quetta, Rawalpindi — was making its way to Lahore.
Today, it did. A suicide bomber detonated himself amidst a 70-member police contingent, minutes before a weekly lawyer’s protest in front of the Lahore High Court. The body count currently stands at 20 officers and 2 civilians dead, with scores wounded.
More Attacks to Follow?
Insider Brief sources further go on to state that Pakistani intelligence was aware of 8 suicide bombers that had entered Lahore to carry out attacks. With this attack, 7 still remain at large. This is despite a major breakthrough in late December (that went unreported) when law enforcement in Sargodha busted a terrorist ring. They recovered 10 tons of explosives and numerous detonators along with a number of terrorists comprising of bomb and suicide jacket makers.
Who Was Targeted?
Accounts vary as to who the bomber intended on attacking. Dawn reports that police were the intended targets wherein the bomber approached police and immediately detonated himself. Individuals familiar with the situation stated that a number of the police officers killed were fresh graduates from the police academy. This wouldn’t be the first attack on security forces or cadets. Suicide bombers in Pakistan have had a history of attacking not only cadets, but seasoned personnel from Pakistan’s military, paramilitary and law enforcement agencies.
CNN, quoting the same or similar sources as Dawn, tells a different story where the bomber approached the site of the impending lawyer’s rally, was stopped by police and then detonated himself. This presents the most interesting angle. A suicide bombing on the police is only tactical in nature. Pakistan’s security forces are rather large in number, and Punjab’s in particular are well funded and well equipped. For jihadists to “waste” scarce resources (e.g. explosives, the bomber, and the device itself) on small scale attacks is not sustainable.
An attack on the lawyer’s rally could potentially be strategic.
The Motives
The average Pakistani currently does not trust the government. Pakistan is rife with speculation, no matter how sensational, that the government (read: President Pervez Musharraf and company) was behind the assassination of Benazir Bhutto.
A sucessful bombing of a lawyer’s rally would immediately have people guessing who was behind the attack. Consider this line of potential reasoning/questions: Jihadists? Too simple an explanation. Was the government behind the attack? Were they looking to intimidate the lawyer’s movement? Were they looking to create an excuse to postpone elections by staging bombings at the onset of Muharram?
In this case, security forces halted the attack, at great cost to themselves, and saved many other lives in the process. Had the bomber succeeded, the government’s credibility would have taken a greater hit in the minds of an increasingly disenchanted and disenfranchised population, looking for excuses to direct their rage at the establishment. The potential outcome could have resulted in another wave of violence, chaos and instability for the Musharraf government — a jihadist’s dream scenario.
Strategies for Security
To counter the growing number of suicide bombers and related instability, the Pakistani goverment must take on a two pronged approach.
First, it must actively direct state resources to target and eliminate both the leadership of jihadist organizations and their bomb making infrastructure. Worthy of study is the Israeli model that has proven incredibly successful over the past decade resulting in a significant decline in suicide bombings within Israel proper.
Aside from having developed superior anti-suicide bomber tactics for security forces (e.g. identifying and eliminating potential suicide bombers), the key to Israeli success has been the targeted assassinations of terrorist leaders and particularly bomb makers. The Israeli’s know full well that making suicide vests and other improvised explosive devices (IEDs) is not a simple task but one that requires immense experience and training. The news is full of “wannabe” bomb makers who regularly blow themselves up as they toy with unstable chemical compounds. Denying terrrorist organizations the ability to produce bombs is the equivalent of taking away an infrantryman’s bullets.
Second, and most importantly, the government of Pakistan must placate its restless population, whose patience has grown thin in light of the present bout of socio-economic deterioration. Countering jihadists is just a stop-gap solution to counter short-term instability and violence. To reinstill stability (if it ever existed) in Pakistan for the long haul, the establishment must find a way to bring all sections of society to the table, create a consensus and instill a sense of participation in government for the populace. The most immediate way to do that is hold free and fair elections; unfortunately, from what our sources tell us, the elections in February will be anything but.
10 responses so far ↓
1 junaid // Jan 11, 2008 at 6:16 am
their is no doubt that musharrafs and the armys henchmen were behind these attacks.they say every bomb attack is a suicde attack even when it is not so.if these jihadist are so big terrorists why wassnt ant cantt area targeted.if the suicide bomber could go to the GPO he could dofinitely go to the cantt area.why no pro governmnet minister or army genereal or core commander is targeted.only opposition figures Are being targeted.isnt that strange.why doesnt the media ask these questions.i have a firm belief that the army and musharraf are using the intelligence agencies to destabilise pakistan and delay elections.of all the people the terroristsonly target lawyers and oppstion politicins .what ever the governmnet says nobody is buying their story that terrorsits r behind this attack.musharraf is using zialulhaq tactics of creating an anarchic situation in our country
2 noman habib // Jan 11, 2008 at 6:23 am
It is being controled from outside but in this situation agression is the best defence.Condemn occupation of afghanistan and unite the nation
nobody can attack Pakistan so let us not let it be destroyed by internal turmoil.Let the democracy flourish defeat the extremism through fare polls and free the press instead of
exporting our citizens to Goeutnamobay, free the judiciary.let us not let the military oligarchy
decide the fate of the nation.let the nation speak forthemselves
3 Abdul khaliq // Jan 11, 2008 at 8:26 am
1.terrorism inside Pakistan is being done by Uzbecks and being preached by Imported Takfiree mulahs who have been imported from arab world for this very purpose.
2.These Takfirees(the people who consider non practicing muslims as non muslims) never did any jehad anywhere including Afghanistan,chechenya,palistine or Kashmir but mostly indulge in secterian issues ,holing hostage for ransome etc.In kurram agency these guys are involved.
3.There idea behind this terrorism is ”any muslim who is supporting Lashkar of Kuffar in any capacity is a Kafir and must be killed” which is against Islam and sunnah anyway but there are enough simple minded people in tribal belt who are brain washed because of no.2 deception policy of Musharaf.
4.In deception political stance is kept streight but military means are covert here we did 180
on political stance which gave way to these takfirees and we had no miitary means to serve the national intersts.
5.However we will be continuously terrorised but we need to fight the intelectual war with takfirees and put our policy on right footing by condemning the occupation of Afghanistan.
4 imran tahir // Jan 11, 2008 at 5:42 pm
junaid shahib talk with some substance without any proof and any substance i am not gonna beleive that a typical pakistani mentality any thing happens put on GOP no matter who in power junaid shahib when u guys realise what going on it will be too late.
5 Aamir // Jan 11, 2008 at 7:10 pm
Junaid:
So intelligence agencies are conducting attacks against the army and themselves ?
Similarly are you not crazy?
6 imran tahir // Jan 11, 2008 at 11:50 pm
this guy run anothar blog aamir just click on his name it can take to u rite there this guy have some problem living in a fantacy world by the way which part of country you live junaid?nothing wrong to live in fantacy but wake up junaid reality is rising.
7 imran tahir // Jan 12, 2008 at 12:04 am
by the shaan your blog is close to reality and timely and real information God bless and ppp general sectary is my dads best friend so i know what happen and he is very quite and sad and compaing at gujar khan and rawat i hope he will secure his seat .
8 noman habib // Jan 13, 2008 at 6:27 am
1.Musharaf has joined the club of hamid gul and
Aslam beg now though it is little too late for him but not too late for Pakistan.
2.We need a concensus at Army level,Musharaf need to go in Back ground for some time.We need an other retired general /Imran khan as president for some time.
3.Judiciary have to be restored but iftikhar choudhray for the sake of unity needs to retire voluntarily.
4.We are under threat and at the threshhold of of reverting back of our Afghan policy as Musharafs doctrine can not be carried out anyfurther thanks to Amrika so Army and nation need to streighten the ranks Musharaf does not fit in therefor some time .He need to rest for 2 years at least but for sure he is required in decision making .Journail shiban need to cover up eachother but follow the same modus operandi which is crafted carefuly.It is better to form a cell of all ex.Afghan jehad
vetrens of ISI ,journalists etc to guide and mould international and domestic opinion for achievement of supreme aim ”free and friendly
afghan people and extention of economic /political influence upto uzbekistan
9 imran tahir // Jan 13, 2008 at 7:54 pm
noman shahib imran khan Godbless why not me?
10 pillboxe // Mar 13, 2008 at 12:24 pm
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