Benazir Bhutto has been assassinated. Bilawal and Asif Zardari, Bhutto’s son and husband, now co-chair the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) with Bilawal slated as heir to the Bhutto mantle. Asif Zardari, who has shown some maturity over the last few days, will be playing a behind-the-scenes role, similar to that of Altaf Hussain of the MQM or Sonia Gandhi of the Congress Party across the border. Makhdoom Amin Fahim will be the next prime ministerial candidate.

Bilawal Zadari is a 19-year old with no political experience and questionable Urdu skills, having lived most of his life abroad. Sources have indicated that Benazir had provided a list of advisors who would serve as a sort of council of regents for Bilawal with his father as principal advisor until he was politically able and legally eligible to run for office.

The question begs to be asked: will the PPP survive?

The Short Answer
Yes.

The Long Answer
In the short term, the PPP will ride the crest of emotional outpouring and sympathy arising from the death of its leader and likely emerge as the winner of the next parliamentary elections. But what about the long term? Bilawal Zardari will not be taking on full party leadership for another 5 years. Can the party hold together and maintain its popularity until then? If history is any indicator, the answer again is yes.

Pakistani Precedent. Zulfikar Ali Bhutto was probably Pakistan’s most popular politician after Mohammad Ali Jinnah, Pakistan’s founder. His name and that of his family continues to elicit a cult-like following in all four of Pakistan’s provinces. Aside from being an impressive orator (just search YouTube), intelligent, and charismatic, Bhutto was the first politician that spoke for Pakistan’s poor and brought forth a populist message. Despite his many flaws, even those in middle and upper class were enthralled with the man.

Consider this: Zia-ul-Huq rose to power in 1978. He hanged Zulfikar Bhutto in 1979. After Zia’s mysterious death in 1989, a decade later, Benazir Bhutto swept elections and became prime minister. Two truncated premierships later and after nearly 8 years in exile, Bhutto returned to Pakistan as one of the most of the popular politicians in Pakistan’s political landscape.

The power of the Bhutto name is demonstratedly immense.

Subcontinental Precedents. In Pakistan, it’s the Bhutto’s. In India, it’s the Gandhi’s. The Gandhi dynasty of India presents a similar story of the power of a name tied with the longevity of a party. Indhira Gandhi, headstrong Indian prime minister and chairwoman of the National Congress party was assassinated in 1984. Her politically inexperienced son, Rajiv Gandhi, then an airline pilot, took on party leadership and became prime minister that same year. He was assassinated in 1991, following his parliamentary defeat in 1989. In 1998, 7 years after Rajiv’s death, his Italian-born wife, Sonia, became chairwoman of the Congress Party which finds itself in power today.

Sindhi’s, Seraiki’s, and the Poverty Stricken. Beyond emotionalism and the sentiment attached to the Bhutto name, there is the simple fact that the PPP has a solid, core constituency upon which to rely. Without the PPP, Pakistan’s Sindhi’s, Seraiki’s, and many of the nation’s poor, wouldn’t have a party to represent them. Punjabi’s after all, have the Pakistan Muslim League in all its lettered variants. The Sindh has the PPP. (Province-centric parties are ultimately dangerous though and only heighten the risk of ethnic/sectarian strife in Pakistan.)

The PPP survived the loss of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. So too will it surive the loss of Benazir.