President Pervez Musharraf has been sworn in for another 5-year term as president of Pakistan — out of uniform. Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani has taken command of Pakistan’s all-powerful army. Emergency rule is to end on December 16th. Elections will be held on January 8th. Anti-insurgency operations continue full swing in Swat.

In short: there’s a heck of a lot going on.

When the situation is this fluid, it creates an environment rife with speculation. At the center of all the speculation has been President Musharraf’s relationship with General Kayani. We’d like to clear the air.

Army Reshuffle in March 2008
The Asia Times Online reported that Gen. Ashfaq Kayani was engaging in a major reshuffle of the Pakistan Army, consolidating his hold on power and removing Musharraf loyalists. Many in the news media picked up on this article, reported it and interpreted it as movement by Kayani against Musharraf. However almost immediately after the news came out, DG ISPR Maj. Gen. Waheed Arshad categorically stated that it was false.

One of the first things worth noting is that the Asia Times Online has never been a reliable source of news. Always engaging in some form of sensationalism, its Pakistan correspondent, Syed Saleem Shahzad, has consistently been wrong over the course of the past few years. It is absolutely confounding that respectable news outlets and private intelligence organizations (e.g. Stratfor — whom I have deep respect for, having worked with them in one way or another since 1999) continue to be duped by the Asia Times Online.

That being said, sources report that there is a scheduled reshuffle expected in March 2008 within the army. This reshuffle will likely take into account Pakistan’s post-election scenario, the status of the Musharraf presidency and the progress of military operations in the country’s northwest. In terms of what to expect for a reshuffle of the army’s mid-level officer corps, sources are reporting that Gen. Kayani is looking to replace the ISI provincial heads (Brigadiers) for Sindh and NWFP. Apparently they have been causing some big headaches and potentially may have Islamist leanings.

The Loyalty Question: the Army and Kayani
As speculation has implied, the big question is whether Kayani will stay loyal to Musharraf. We believe he will — for now. Through discussions with our sources, there appears to be a consensus that Gen. Kayani does not have political aspirations of his own. The consensus among our sources also reveals that for the time being, the current grouping of corps commanders remains loyal to Musharraf as well.

Kayani’s decision thus far to not appoint a Vice or Deputy Chief of Army Staff validates the notion that he intends on remaining apolitical. As we’ve stated in the past, a VCOAS/DCOAS is really only appointed when the Chief of Army Staff (COAS) is busy muddling in the country’s governance to the extent that he cannot effectively oversee the army’s day-to-day affairs. (Editor’s Note: VCOAS and DCOAS are the same position, the difference is in the number of stars. A VCOAS is a full 4-star general, while a DCOAS is a full 3-star general.)

So what could sway Kayani’s support away from Musharraf? The two most likely scenarios in which Kayani would withdraw support for Musharraf would involve either:

1. The US government determining that Musharraf is a liability to the war on terror.
2. Kayani determining that Musharraf’s presence in the presidency is either hurting the army’s image or counterproductive towards his goal of transitioning the army out of national affairs.

And though many in Pakistan seek to have the army completely extricate itself from the affairs of governance, at present, it’s not an entirely realistic goal. We argued recently that Musharraf stepping down from the army does not mark a paradigm shift. The Pakistan Army is likely to have a role in governing Pakistan for the near-to-medium term, something that we believe is not sustainable for the army or the nation in the long run. A consensus on a vision for the country’s future must be developed among all of Pakistan’s major power brokers so that the armed forces may finally take on their rightful role as the defenders of Pakistan, not its governors.

Outlook on Musharraf’s Future
We believe that as long as President Musharraf retains the support of Gen. Kayani, he will continue to hold the upper hand on the political scene as the country transitions back to democracy. After all, President Musharraf has no popular support base on which to rely. His constituency was and is the army. Without its support, he’s dead in the water. Working in coordination, Musharraf and Kayani have the potential to be a major force in this transition, setting the agenda for the country’s future. Five years is a long time however, and a lot can happen before then. We have a feeling that regardless of how much support President Musharraf receives from the army, he won’t be completing his second term as president.