We’ve learnt that President Gen. Pervez Musharraf will be stepping down as Chief of Army Staff (COAS) in a changeover ceremony on Wednesday in which Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani will ascend to the army’s top slot (see our profile of Kayani here). On Thursday, Musharraf will be sworn in for his second term as president.

Transition Continues as Planned
Effectively having dealt with former Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry, Musharraf’s transition appears to be continuing as planned. The newly revamped Supreme Court has paved the way for Musharraf’s second term as president and now that Nawaz Sharif has returned to Pakistan, the stage is set for the January parliamentary elections. The only remaining unresolved issue is the present state of emergency that is in effect which will likely go soon. Many IB readers will recall that our sources had stated back on November 3rd that Musharraf would remove his uniform, elections would be held, and that the emergency would be short lived.

Taking stock of the present situation — isn’t this what everyone wanted? A civilian Musharraf as president with elections being held in which all major parties are participating? Not to sound like a military regime apologist, the question begs to be asked: was Iftikhar Chaudhry acting in the greater good of the country by sparking a confrontation with President Musharraf? In attempting to push Musharraf out of the public realm entirely, instead of seeking a phased transition, can it be argued that Chaudhry can be blamed for the current state of emergency and curbs on the media?

We’ll leave that for our readers to answer.

A Paradigm in Twilight?
When Musharraf retires from the army this Wednesday, many will begin to question if this is the beginning of the end for the military’s involvement in government. The answer: not by a long shot. We had stated in a prior post that the army is at the center of the Pakistani state and that it will be involved in the country’s governance for decades to come if not in perpetuity. Whether this is right or wrong is not the question — it’s a ground reality.

Heard ad nauseam, the military is Pakistan’s single most organized, popular and powerful institution. It is the only grouping of Pakistan’s major stakeholders that can universally impose its will on the country and bring everyone else into line. As long as Pakistan’s ruling elites — the military, political parties, feudal lords, and business barons — remain at loggerheads with one another over the direction of the nation, the military will remain in the driver’s seat.