Our sources are now reporting that Nawaz Sharif could return to Pakistan as early as this Saturday or Sunday. Upon landing in Pakistan, he is scheduled to head directly to his home in Lahore or his massive 50-acre estate in Raiwind. He is apparently under strict orders by President Gen. Pervez Musharraf to not engage in any processions, protests or mass public gatherings to mark his return from exile.

Out with the New, In with the Old
Sources also report that President Musharraf has grown weary of the Chaudhry cousins (Parvez Elahi and Shujaat Hussain) and intends on bringing in the Sharif brothers (Nawaz and Shahbaz) to dilute their influence. I doubt Musharraf will entirely rid himself of the Chaudhries — he will need some civilian allies — but instead he will likely marginalize them to the point that they are forced to share power with the likes of Benazir Bhutto and the Sharifs. This is in line with our analysis from September stating that Musharraf wanted a diluted coalition government in place; it would shield him from criticism for being undemocratic, all the while allowing him to carry on his policies unchecked while coalition members would bicker among one another.

Resentment within the Army
We had reported earlier that there was resentment in the Pakistan Army over operations in Swat. Now, we are being told that there is broad resentment among the army’s mid-to-low ranking officers over Musharraf’s handling of Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif. They are particularly upset that Nawaz Sharif is being allowed to return, after they helped show him the door nearly a decade ago. The discontent over Musharraf’s policies has not spread to senior army leadership, which remains on board, likely understanding the compromises he needs to make in light of international (read: US) pressure. It also doesn’t hurt that they’re all hand picked Musharraf loyalists. Ultimately, this is bad news for Musharraf. The army is his constituency and power base. If his support continues to erode, he could soon find himself out of a job.

Intel Validation
We revealed exactly two weeks ago that the Bush administration, specifically Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte, had advance knowledge of President Musharraf’s plans of imposing a state of emergency in Pakistan. Today, the Wall Street Journal reported just that — that American diplomats had prior knowledge of the impending emergency.