High level sources report that a major decision regarding President Gen. Pervez Musharraf and his government will be made on November 1st. It’s up in the air as to who’s making the decision and about what exactly, however, we have reason to believe that Musharraf will be stepping down from his post as Army chief. If true, this would mean Musharraf is acting ahead of the widely expected date, November 15th, when he is scheduled to take oath for his second term as president.

The Countdown Begins
Musharraf stepping down from his post as Chief of Army Staff (COAS) would mark an interesting turn of events, especially in light of the recent attempt on Benazir Bhutto’s life and strife in the country’s border regions. One would have reasoned that given the level of instability, Musharraf would have dragged his feet on shedding his uniform, but instead, we’re potentially witnessing the opposite. He may step down as COAS to facilitate a Supreme Court verdict in favor of his presidential candidacy; though it’s unlikely that the Supreme Court will rule against Musharraf, lest it’s seeking to trigger a governmental crisis.

Musharraf’s expedited schedule can also be interpreted as a vote of confidence for Gen. Ashfaq Kayani, Musharraf’s successor in the army. Musharraf would be signalling that he trusts Kayani enough to run the army without fear of being ousted or betrayed, though many in the opposition have long been anticipating the day that Musharraf doffs his uniform as it has been his only source of power. If and when he does remove his uniform, Musharraf will rely more than ever on the loyalists he has strategically placed throughout the military and the government.

Shaukat Aziz to Remain Premier
Sources are also indicating that the powers-that-be intend for Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz to remain prime minister after general elections. They describe Aziz as being a “non-controversial” public figure and cite his proven track record in managing the economy. They go on to categorically state that Benazir Bhutto will not be the next prime minister.

This news, coupled with our previous reporting that Musharraf will not be abandoning his current civilian allies (read: the Chaudhries), rules out a major power-sharing agreement between Bhutto and Musharraf. It is likely that government intends to continue to dangle the idea of a power-sharing accord in front of Bhutto as a means of keeping both her and the public occupied while it prepares for general elections.

Though there may not be a major power-sharing agreement between Musharraf and Bhutto, we do foresee them coming to some sort of political accommodation along with the rest of the players on Pakistan’s scattered political field.

The government should be wary though not to underestimate Bhutto’s popularity or political abilities – she may just end up surprising everyone.