The blasts in Karachi have left the people of Pakistan shocked and horrified while the country’s law enforcement and intelligence agencies scramble to find those responsible. As investigations continue, major questions remain unanswered.

WHAT WE DO KNOW
The tactics and means involved in the attack make us believe with near certainty that they were carried out by Muslim extremists. Suicide bombings have not been the modus operandi for any of Pakistan’s more politically motivated organizations or those of insurgent tribes (e.g. Baloch nationalists).

The investigations being conducted right now are by and large a police affair though intelligence agencies are also heavily involved and coordinating efforts. My sources close to law enforcement investigations have revealed the following findings:

• There was only one suicide bomber. Though multiple severed heads have been found at the killing grounds in Karachi, there was only one “striker sleeve” found. A striker sleeve is the mechanism that the suicide bomber manually pulls to detonate the bomb.
• The bomber was a Muslim extremist. In addition to the mode of attack (suicide bombing), the actual mechanism – manual usage of a striker sleeve – hints to authorities that the bomber was an Islamist. Prior attacks by Muslim extremist groups in Pakistan have used the exact same mechanism.
• No IEDs used. When improvised explosive devices (IEDs) are planted, their explosions leave craters/holes in the ground. None were found at the scene.
• No car bombs used. Initial surveys indicate that there were no car bombs used. Authorities investigating have observed that all cars at the site were blown inward, not outward, the latter of which would indicate a car bomb.
• No grenade used. The media is widely reporting that the initial blast was a grenade. Sources have said that there were no signs of a grenade being used in terms of evidence found at the scene. They do however admit that a great deal of evidence was likely destroyed in the confusion and panic that ensued after the blasts.

Initial findings that no grenades or IEDs were used, leaves a glaring question - what caused the first blast? Details of the actual attack will continue to become available as investigations progress, but an even bigger question remains - who organized and funded the attackers?

WHO DONE IT?
A number of conspiracy theories have been floating around, particularly one in which some say Benazir Bhutto was behind the bombings as a means of boosting her own popularity – this is very unlikely. The consensus among authorities and officials in the government is that the bombing was too close for comfort and that Benazir could have legitimately lost her life in the process.

Bhutto did however announce that she had provided President Musharraf with a letter naming three individuals whom she believes were behind the attack. A well placed source revealed that the three named were:

1. Brig (retd.) Ejaz Shah - Intelligence Bureau (IB) Chief
2. Ijaz-ul-Haq - Religious Affairs Minister and son of the late dictator, Zia-ul-Huq, who hanged Bhutto’s father.
3. The National Accountability Bureau (NAB) official who was heading up the investigation into Bhutto’s alleged corruption scandals

The Ijaz-ul-Haq and the NAB official’s inclusion on the list has led many in the government to brush off Bhutto’s allegations as politically motivated. But the mention of Ejaz Shah is always both interesting and controversial.

A retired army brigadier, Ejaz Shah is head of Pakistan’s Intelligence Bureau (IB) which falls under the purview of the Interior Ministry. He is also known to be a close friend of Musharraf’s who engineered the electoral rise of the Chaudhry cousins who now head up Pakistan’s king’s party, the PML(Q). By taking a swipe at Shah, Bhutto may be looking to weaken the Chaudhries by taking aim at their chief sponsor.

There is a flip side though. Ejaz Shah may have very well felt threatened by the return of Bhutto as it endangered the Chaudhries’ role in power and thereby his influence in government. Recently, one top official told me, “Ejaz Shah is more sincere to the Chaudhries than he is to Musharraf.” For some time now, there have been some very negative undercurrents flowing in the establishment against the unsavory Ejaz Shah.

I had also reported a month ago in “Benazir Makes a Date” that some sources were speculating that the Chaudhries would likely seek to assassinate Bhutto upon her return. Though both Shah and the Chaudhries have a lot to lose with Bhutto’s return, their roles in the Karachi blasts are highly speculative. This information is provided here for you to make your own informed decision. Plus it’s important to keep in mind that this attack boosted Bhutto’s popularity; Ejaz Shah and the Chaudhries would have known this. With the level of influence and resources they have at their command, they would have been able to ensure an attack large enough to effectively eliminate Bhutto.

Many in the establishment are convinced that these attacks were entirely organized, funded and executed by the Taliban/Al-Qaeda nexus. They have the means, motivation and resources to see this sort of operation through from start to finish.

MORE ATTACKS?
Some lower level intelligence sources on the ground have stated that chatter in Islamist and “Taliban” circles indicates that there are more attacks to come. They’ve heard that militants planned on welcoming Benazir Bhutto with a “21 blast salute” of which they say three blasts have already been executed. They claim that there were three blasts in Karachi, not two as has almost been universally reported. This makes us doubt the veracity of these claims but there is always the possibility that the third bomb may have failed to go off.

Bhutto’s return has proven to be explosive in the most literal of senses. The terrorist attack in Karachi is the largest in Pakistan’s history. If there were ever a time for the forces of moderation to band together against extremism – it would be now.