Unbeknownst to the public, a high-ranking Pakistan Army delegation returned from a visit to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia on October 11th. (Author’s note: Apologies to IB readers, as much as I’d like to divulge the names of delegation members, I am currently not at liberty to do so.) The visit may have been a courtesy call to Saudi counterparts who represent some of Pakistan’s leading benefactors, or it could have been a visit to the twice exiled former-prime minister, Nawaz Sharif. Given the secrecy of the visit and the fact that “Sharif Palace” is located in Jeddah, we’re inclined to believe the latter.

DECEITFUL DEALINGS EXPOSED?
The Jeddah visit proves to be a very interesting development especially when viewed in the context of the “chatter” that we’ve been picking up on from some of our sources. We’ve consistently heard over the last week that President Musharraf, having won his re-election bid with the tacit support of Benazir Bhutto, is abandoning his deal with her. He is allegedly banking on the Supreme Court to strike down the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) which grants Bhutto, among others, amnesty from pending criminal charges. And while the delegitimized Bhutto will not be returning to Pakistan, Nawaz Sharif will. At the time, this scenario was both highly speculative and implausible for many reasons and as a result, we left it unreported.

The first mention of this potential outcome came shortly after Pakistan Muslim League (Q) president, Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, appeared at a news conference with Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz early last week saying that the NRO was a ploy and that Bhutto had lost at a political game. Though some knowledgeable individuals claimed that Hussain had been told by Musharraf to say what he did, it was far more likely that the comments reflected an attempt to throw a wrench in the Musharraf-Bhutto deal. It was reasoned that the Chaudhry cousins, who campaigned hard for Musharraf during the recent presidential elections, were trying equally hard to maintain their relevancy.

A few days later however, Musharraf made the suggestion during a TV interview that Bhutto delay her return. This, despite an almost immediate rejection of the idea from Bhutto, coupled with news of the Jeddah trip, led us to question whether there was any credence to what we had been hearing.

COMPULSIONS FOR MOHTARMA AND MUSHARRAF
Having re-evaluated our position, the aforementioned scenario forecast by some of our sources still remains improbable, though not as speculative, as the Supreme Court has agreed to review the NRO.

There is one major reason Musharraf cannot abandon a deal with Bhutto – the United States. The US has a high degree of vested interest in seeing the Musharraf-Bhutto deal come to fruition and has spent a great deal of political capital trying to make it happen. If Musharraf hopes to maintain the continued support of the US government — a major prop for his regime — he must remain committed to a power sharing agreement with Bhutto. There have already been some signs a la State Department commentary signaling that the American government may be distancing itself from Musharraf.

Bhutto on the other hand cannot afford to not return to Pakistan on October 18th as we’ve stated in the past. This is Bhutto’s last chance to return to power and redeem herself. If this window of opportunity closes, she will be relegated in history as yet another failed ruler in Pakistan’s long line of over-hyped disappointments. For her credibility to stay in tact, she must return to Pakistan on the 18th regardless of whether or not the Supreme Court strikes down the NRO.

A FRAGMENTED FRAMEWORK
So where does the Jeddah visit fit into all of this? The delegation likely flew to Jeddah to discuss with Nawaz Sharif the terms of his and/or Shahbaz Sharif’s return to Pakistan. Since his deportation back to Saudi Arabia, the Saudis have kept Sharif on a short leash. If he hopes to leave Saudi Arabia, it will have to be with Musharraf’s consent.

One may question what incentive Musharraf has to allow either of the Sharif brothers to return to Pakistan. The truth is that though Musharraf is beholden to the Americans to make a deal with Bhutto, he doesn’t have to guarantee that she or anyone else is all that powerful. By forcing the PPP and PML(Q) into a coalition government all the while re-activating the PML(N) through the return of its leadership, Musharraf would be creating a fractured political environment with multiple, nearly co-equal players. Under the probable guise of national reconciliation, he would effectively be neutralizing the Chaudhry’s, the Sharif’s and Bhutto by playing them off one another. The very fact that the Jeddah visit was made by Army officials and not civilian political operatives makes us believe that the Chaudhry’s were not to have any say in or knowledge of negotiations with Sharif.

On the surface, it may appear as though Musharraf is conceding power to the country’s politicians, but the reality is that he’s ensuring, with the Army’s backing, that he will remain the single most powerful player in Pakistani politics.

How the Supreme Court acts in the coming days is anyone’s guess. One thing is certain though – Musharraf is proving to be a very deft politician.