He came, he saw, he … got deported.

Nawaz Sharif’s highly anticipated return from exile on September 10th very quickly dissipated into an anti-climactic return to exile.

In the wake of his deportation, Benazir Bhutto has announced that after nearly a decade in self-imposed exile, she herself will be returning to Pakistan on October 18th. The government has responded by saying she is welcome back but will have to face the corruption charges that await her at home.

Will Benazir Bhutto hold firm to her October 18th arrival date or will she back track as she’s done in the past?

INSIGHT INTO THE DEAL
By very publicly declaring a formal date of return, Bhutto has no choice but to return as announced unless she’s willing to take a severe hit to her credibility and popularity. An astute politician, Bhutto wouldn’t risk announcing a return date, let alone a return, unless she knew it was a safe bet. This alone leads us to believe that Bhutto is confident in the progress of any negotiations between herself and Musharraf.

We’re also inclined to believe that the timing of Bhutto’s return indicates that her and Musharraf have already come to some sort of initial accomodation. Musharraf’s term as President officially ends November 15th, but government officials have stated that Musharraf would be seeking re-election sometime between September 15th and October 15th. Not incoincidentally, Bhutto’s arrival steers clear of that period, allowing Musharraf to focus on being re-elected. These facts, coupled with Mushahid Hussain’s comments that Musharraf will “doff” his uniform sometime after re-election, reveal that perhaps Bhutto has good reason to be confident.

However, there remain some major hurdles between herself and the premiership. Sources in my last post mentioned both the two-term limit for Prime Ministers and the remaining corruption charges as major sticking points in negotiations for a power-sharing agreement. The government’s response, that Bhutto will have to face pending charges upon her return, reinforced that these sticking points still exist. It also represented some serious posturing on Musharraf’s part since Bhutto will be unable to contest elections for any parliamentary seat while there are open charges against her. Knowing the speed at which cases are dispensed in Pakistan and with elections looming, Bhutto may be forced to make some major concessions to Musharraf in order to secure a pardon. Whether Musharraf is willing to grant a pardon at all is another question.

But if Musharraf was willing to drop all charges, a third term for Bhutto as Prime Minister would still require amending the constitution, something the PPP itself cannot undertake alone, either now or even after the next round of parliamentary elections. Enter the “King’s Party” – the PML-Q. With the combined voting power of the PPP and the PML-Q, a constitutional amendment suddenly becomes viable. It additionally raises the specter of a coalition government.

My sources had stated that Musharraf was not about to abandon his “allies” in the PML-Q, notably the Chaudhry cousins. I interpreted this to imply that there was a possibility of some sort of watered down coalition government between the PML-Q and PPP. That interpretation is gaining increased traction as Dawn reported today that Musharraf had directed the PML to hold direct talks with the PPP over a post-election power-sharing “formula.” It will be interesting to witness how the dynamic between the Chaudhry’s and Bhutto unfolds, as neither likely wants to work with the other.

With PPP requests for the import of armored transport for Bhutto declined by customs officials, some well connected individuals have omniously speculated that the Chaudhry’s may seek to assassinate Bhutto. We hope that these speculations remain just that – speculations.

Assassination plots, negotiations, and sticking points aside, there remains another major irritant for a final deal – Nawaz Sharif’s failed return.

SHARIF’S MONKEY WRENCH
Hoping to show up Bhutto, Nawaz Sharif elected to return to Pakistan before her, gambling that Musharraf would not risk another confrontation with the Supreme Court of Pakistan by deporting him. He gambled wrong and was deported to Saudi Arabia. In the process, he threw a major wrench in Musharraf’s plans.

First, he created the potential for another show down between Musharraf and the Supreme Court as the latter decides whether the Musharraf government is to be held in contempt of court. Secondly, he made it increasingly difficult for Bhutto to strike a formal accord with Musharraf without damaging her public image. This was exacerbated by the United States’ perceived role in both the deportation of Sharif and the deal between Bhutto and Musharraf.

We don’t think Nawaz Sharif intended for all this to happen – he’s not that smart. Had he planned for all this, he wouldn’t have ended up in Saudi Arabia where his movement and activities are severely limited. The worst Sharif likely expected was that he would end up jailed in Attock Fort after which the courts or public outcry would grant him reprieve.

Had Sharif shown some patience and political maturity (lacking in Pakistan), he would have waited for Bhutto to return or returned with her, making it very difficult for Musharraf to show him the way back to exile without utterly compromising Bhutto’s public standing.

UNHAPPILY EVER AFTER?
Ultimately, we foresee that Musharraf and Bhutto will successfully achieve a power-sharing agreement. We question however, whether the deal will translate into a stable polity, sustainable development, or democracy.